Stats for Suckas: Sonnen vs Rua

Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC Fight Night 26: Chael Sonnen vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.

Chael Sonnen	Stats	Mauricio Rua
36	Age	31
Team Quest/Reign TC	Camp	Universidade da Luta
27-13-1	Record	21-7
Southpaw	Stance	Orthodox
74.0″	Reach	76.0″
7 (T)KO (26%)	Win Percentage	18 (T)KO 86%
4 Submissions (15%)		1 Submission (4%)
16 Decisions (59%)		2 Decisions (10%)
4 (T)KO (31%)	Loss Percentage	2 (T)KO (28.5%)
8 Submissions (62%)		2 Submissions (28.5%)
1 Decision (8%)		3 Decisions (43%)
Oct. 27th, 2006, over	Last (T)KO Victory	Aug. 4th, 2012, over
Kyacey Uscola		Brandon Vera
Oct. 8th, 2011, over	Last Submission Victory	Oct. 21st, 2006, over
Brian Stann		Kevin Randleman
Jan. 28th, 2012, over	Last Decision Victory	Dec. 31st, 2006, over
Michael Bisping		Kazuhiro Nakamura
Apr. 27th, 2013, to	Last (T)KO Loss	Mar. 19th, 2011, to
Jon Jones		Jon Jones
Aug. 7th, 2010, to	Last Submission Loss	Sep. 22nd, 2007, to
Anderson Silva		Forest Griffin
July 5th, 2004, to	Last Decision Loss	Dec. 8th, 2012, to
Keiichiro Yamamiya		Alexander Gustafsson
Forearm Choke x1 (25%)	Submission Victories	Kneebar x1 (100%)
Arm-Triangle x1 (25%)	by Method
Punches x1 (25%)
Brabo Choke x1 (25%)
Triangle x4 (50%)	Submission Losses	RNC x1 (50%)
Armbar x3 (37.5%)	by Method	Guillotine x1 (50%)
Guillotine x1 (12.5%)
7	Most TDs in a fight	8
4	Most times taken down	7
	in a fight
5	Decision Victories	0
	in the UFC
3.19	Significant Strikes	3.62
	Landed Per Minute
44%	Striking Accuracy	51%
1.05	Significant Strikes	2.34
	Absorbed Per Minute
65%	Striking Defense	54%
3.83	Average Takedown	2.38
	Attempts per 15 Min.
60%	Takedown Accuracy	49%
67%	Takedown Defense	44%
	Percentage
0.26	Average Submission	1.07
	Attempts Per 15 Min.
60.06%	Average Submission	5.40%
	Completion Rate
91, vs. Yushin Okami on	Most Significant Strikes	96, vs. Dan Henderson
Oct. 24th, 2009	Landed in a Fight	on Nov. 19th, 2011
6 hrs, 24 min, 14 sec	Total Fight Time	4 hrs, 19 min, 47 sec

Now, let’s look at this objectively. Not only has Mauricio Rua struggled with wrestlers in the past, he’s also never won a decision in the UFC. His opponent, Chael Sonnen, has seldom struggled in taking opponents down, and has 5 decision victories in the UFC. Sonnen also has a better idea of when to attempt a submission than Rua, and has the top control ability necessary to completely shut down “Shogun’s” much-vaunted half-guard game. “The Gangster from West Linn” takes this by unanimous decision, and don’t be shocked if there’s a 10-8 round in there somewhere.