Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC 166: Cain Velasquez vs Junior dos Santos III.
Cain Velasquez vs Junior dos Santos III
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| Age | 31 | 29 |
| Camp | American Kickboxing Academy | Team Nogueira/Champion Team |
| Record | 12-1 | 16-2 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Reach | 77.0″ | 77.0″ |
| Win Percentage | 10 (T)KO (83%) 2 Decisions (17%) | 12 (T)KO (75%) 2 Submissions (12.5%) 2 Decisions (12.5%) |
| Loss Percentage | 1 (T)KO (100%) | 1 Submission (50%) 1 Decision (50%) |
| Last (T)KO Victory | May 25th, 2013, over Antonio Silva | May 25th, 2013, over Mark Hunt |
| Last Submission Victory | N/A | Sep. 19th, 2009, over Mirko Filipovic |
| Last Decision Victory | Dec. 29th, 2012, over Junior dos Santos | June 11th, 2011, over Shane Carwin |
| Last (T)KO Loss | Nov. 12th, 2011, to Junior dos Santos | N/A |
| Last Submission Loss | N/A | Nov. 10th, 2007, to Joaquim Ferreira |
| Last Decision Loss | N/A | Dec. 29th, 2012, to Cain Velasquez |
| Submission Victories by Method | N/A | Guillotine Choke 1x (50%) Punches 1x (50%) |
| Submission Losses by method | N/A | Armbar 1x (100%) |
| Most Takedowns Landed in a Fight | 11 | 2 |
| Most Significant Strikes Received in a Fight | 57 | 111 |
| Decision Victories in the UFC | 2 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 6.33 | 5.46 |
| Striking Accuracy | 58% | 49% |
| Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 1.56 | 2.68 |
| Striking Defense | 61% | 60% |
| Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min. | 6.49 | 0.61 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 50% | 67% |
| Takedown Defense Percentage | 88% | 74% |
| Average Submission per 15 Min. | 0.39 | N/A Submission wins occurred outside of FightMetric records |
| Average Submission Completion Rate | 0.00% | N/A |
| Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight | 111, Dec. 29th, 2012 vs. Junior dos Santos | |
| Total Cage Time | 1 hr, 16 min, 15 sec | 2 hrs, 2 min, 50 sec |
Considering that each man’s worst performance was against the other, it’s hard to make a pick for this fight. With that said, it’s not impossible. The outrageous pace that Velasquez keeps, as evidenced by his average significant strikes per minute and average takedown attempts per 15 minutes, is inhuman and too much for any heavyweight to reasonably keep up with. It will be a war, but I predict that Cain Velasquez will retain his belt, eking out another decision win over dos Santos.
