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Stats for Suckas: Roy Nelson vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

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Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi: Roy Nelson vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.


Statistics

Roy Nelson

A. Rodrigo Nogueira

Age 37 37
Camp Country Club Team Nogueira
Record 19-9 37-8-1 (1 N/C)
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Reach 73.0″ 77.0″
Win Percentage 12 (T)KOs (63%)
5 Submissions (26%)
2 Decisions (11%)
3 (T)KOs (9%)
21 Submissions (62%)
10 Decisions (29%)
Loss Percentage 1 (T)KO (11%)
8 Decisions (89%)
2 (T)KOs (25%)
2 Submissions (25%)
4 Decisions 50%)
Last (T)KO Victory Apr. 27th, 2013, over Cheick Kongo July 26th, 2005, over Pawel Nastula
Last Submission Victory July 22, 2006, over Jerome Smith Oct. 13th, 2012, over Dave Herman
Last Decision Victory July 16th, 2007, over Shane Ott Aug. 29th, 2009, over Randy Couture
Last (T)KO Loss Oct. 4th, 2008, against Andrei Arlovski Feb. 20th, 2010, to Cain Velasquez
Last Submission Loss N/A June 8th, 2013, to Fabricio Werdum
Last Decision Loss Oct. 19th, 2013, to Daniel Cormier Sep. 10th, 2006, to Josh Barnett
Submission Victories by Method RNC 2x (40%)
Arm Triangle 1x (20%)
Hammerlock 1x (20%)
Punches 1x (20%)
Armbar 11x (52%)
Triangle 3x (13%)
Anaconda 2x (10%)
RNC 1x (5%)
Keylock 1x (5%)
Crucifix 1x (5%)
Guillotine 1x (5%)
Arm Triangle 1x (5%)
Submission Losses by method N/A Kimura 1x (50%)
Armbar 1x (50%)
Most Significant Strikes Absorbed in a Single Fight 130 79
Fewest Significant Strikes in a Victory 2 1
Decision Victories in the UFC 0 2
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.14 1.85
Striking Accuracy 33% 42%
Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute 5.07 2.2
Striking Defense 48% 57%
Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min. 0.51 1.33
Takedown Accuracy 18% 33%
Takedown Defense Percentage 58% 36%
Average Submission per 15 Min. 0.26 2.53
Average Submission Completion Rate 97.13% 28.89%
Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight 40, against Junior Dos Santos, Aug. 7th, 2010 69, on Dec. 31st, 2006, against Josh Barnett
Total Fight Time 3 hrs, 57 min, 35 sec 7 hrs, 11 min, 2 sec

Despite the all the accolades heaped upon Nelson for his grappling abilities, he sure doesn’t use them much. However, if he wants to get a win over “Big Nog,” it may be his best path to victory. “Big Country” – in my mind, at least – does not have the footwork or striking defense necessary to eke out a decision over the perpetually fast-aging Nogueira. Nelson eats over twice as many significant strikes as he throws, and even if he’s got the chin to stay upright, it doesn’t help in the eyes of the judges. Expect “Minotauro” to eke out a unanimous decision

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Justin Pierrot is MMASucka.com's resident musicologist and TUF aficionado. When not looking after his family or writing his weekly pieces, he's making music as Stormland or building Gundam models.

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