Stats for Suckas: Teixeira vs Bader

Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC Fight Night 28: Glover Teixeira vs. Ryan Bader.

Stats for Suckas: Teixeira vs Bader

Glover_Texeira_HeadshotGlover Teixeira

Stats

baderRyan Bader

33 Age 30
The Pit Camp Power MMA Team
21-2 Record 15-3
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
76″ Reach 74″
12 (T)KO (57%) Win Percentage 6 (T)KO (40%)
6 Submissions (29%) 4 Submissions (27%)
3 Decisions (14%) 5 Decisions (33%)
1 (T)KO (50%) Loss Percentage 1 (T)KO (33%)
1 Decisions (50%) 2 Submissions (67%)
Oct. 13th, 2012, over Last (T)KO Victory Nov. 19th, 2011, over
Fabio Maldonado Jason Brilz
May 25th, 2013, over Last Submission Victory Jan. 26th, 2013, over
James Te Huna Vladimir Matyushenko
Jan 26th, 2013, over Last Decision Victory Feb. 26th, 2012, over
Quinton Jackson Quinton Jackson
June 7th, 2002, to Last (T)KO Loss Aug. 4th, 2012, to
 Eric Schwartz Lyoto Machida
N/A Last Submission Loss July 2nd, 2011, to
 Tito Ortiz
Mar. 26th, 2005, to Last Decision Loss N/A
Ed Herman
Guillotine 2x (33.3%) Submission Victories Guillotine 1x (25%)
RNC 2x (33.3%) by Method Choke 1x (25%)
Arm-Triangle 1x (16.7%) Arm Triangle 1x (25%)
Punches x1 (16.7%) Punches 1x (25%)
N/A Submission Losses Guillotine x2 (100%)
by Method
2 Fights won via Doctor’s 0
or Corner Stoppage
15 First Round Finishes 8
1 Decision Victories 4
in the UFC
4.69 Significant Strikes 2.56
Landed Per Minute
47% Striking Accuracy 38%
1.96 Significant Strikes 1.54
Absorbed Per Minute
58% Striking Defense 72%
3.12 Average Takedown 3.18
Attempts per 15 Min.
75% Takedown Accuracy 43%
100%* Takedown Defense 50%
Percentage
1.04 Average Submission 0.48
Attempts Per 15 Min.
68.1% Average Submission 100%
Completion Rate
85, vs. Fabio Maldonado Most Significant Strikes 55, vs. Quinton Jackson
on Oct. 13th, 2012 Landed in a Fight on Feb. 25th, 2012
2 hrs, 7 min, 1 sec Total Fight Time 2hrs, 1 min, 2 sec

 

Even going by the limited FightMetric data available for Glover Teixeira, it’s hard to see how – based on killer instinct, striking volume, steady pace of submission attempts,  and willingness to go for takedowns – he could lose this fight. In fact, I think this is actually a very bad match-up for poor Ryan Bader. His takedown accuracy does not appear to be  match for Teixeira, nor does his defense, and both this striking pace and accuracy are well below the Brazilian murder machine’s. I predict that Glover Teixeira will win this by TKO in the first round.

 

* Statistics only include fights analyzed by FightMetric, in WEC and UFC.

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