It was not the start to the season that Ronda Rousey had hoped for, but it made her opposing coach Miesha Tate very happy. With Ronda’s top pick on the women’s side and favourite to win the whole competition, Shayna Baszler, submitted by Miesha’s first pick, Julianna Pena, control was now with Team Tate. Coach “Cupcake” took the opportunity to pit the Team Rousey’s top pick, the injured Chris Beal, and place him against her #2 pick, grappling ace Chris Holdsworth. We also saw the emotionally raw Rousey break down into tears and perhaps misinterpret Miesha Tate’s reaction to her friend and first pick winning as a dig at her fighter’s heartbreak. Tonight we get the fallout and the first men’s fight of the house.
Role Model(s): Breaking Down Holdsworth vs. Beal
Chris Holdsworth has a compelling back-story, getting into Brazilian Jiu Jitsu – and eventually MMA – as a tribute to his late brother. He is also one the most decorated submission grappler in the male portion of this competition. A championship-level BJJ black belt under Marc Laimon, Holdsworth is also undefeated in MMA at both the amateur and professional levels, with a combined 8-0, all finishes record. He’s also a member of Team Alpha Male, working on both his wrestling and his striking with some of the top coaches in the game in Urijah Faber and Duane “Bang” Ludwig respectively. In fact, it was Ludwig was who tipped me off to Holdsworth when I was examining prospects going into this season’s tryouts at my old blog. The 5’11” bantamweight may not have the best takedown defense in the house, but that his due to his skills off his back. I’ve long maintained that Holdsworth’s Team Alpha Male-level wrestling and a strong bottom game make him a strong contender to make it to the finals this season, and after seeing how he maintained his composure against Louis Fissette in the preliminary round, I haven’t seen anything to change that opinion.
In the days running up to the season premiere of TUF 18, I saw some chatter among MMA Twitteratti discussing “The Real Deal” Chris Beal. The cancer survivor also comes to the house with an undefeated record, but the majority of those wins have been by decision, with a lone TKO victory coming in 2012. Beal is known for his aggression, but from what I’ve seen, it’s more of a Leonard Garcia, always-swinging kind of style and that has repeatedly shown it can come back to bite a fighter in the butt. That’s not to say that Beal doesn’t have a great deal of talent and potential, but we’ve seen what can happen when a brawler takes on a grappler with good timing. The fact that he’s going into this fight injured is also another reason for concern. It’s never helpful for a fighter whose stock in trade is brawling to go into a fight with one of his main weapons damaged.
As much as I personally disagree with the tactic on an ethical level, I can not argue that matching Chris Beal up against Chris Holdsworth is anything but a smart move. Holdsworth has shown himself to be durable enough to weather a storm, and is solid enough on the feet to be able to control distance. Unless Beal is able to pin him against the cage for the majority of the fight, I have trouble seeing how he wins this. If it stays on the feet, I can see Holdsworth using his long limbs to out-point “The Real Deal.” If it goes to the ground, Holdsworth is good enough to catch a his Team Rousey opposition in a tight submission from either top or bottom position.
Justin’s Prediction: Chris Holdsworth def. Chris Beal via Submission in Round 1.
Exactly What You Wanted: Non-Fight Speculation and Analysis
Last week saw heartbreak for Coach Ronda Rousey and her team. With top pick and competition favourite Shayna Baszler defeated by her Team Tate counterpart, Julianna Pena, Rousey took the loss as hard – if not harder – than her fighter. I gave my in-depth thoughts on the matter in last week’s TUF 18 Report, but the Cliff’s Notes are that despite the bad-ass image we’re presented, “Rowdy” Ronda is actually very sensitive and is dealing with someone who has continued to be a twisting thorn in her side even after a sound thrashing in Miesha Tate. We saw her over-react and jump into defense mode, which is not uncommon for people who’ve been bullied, and it did not make her look good in the eyes of many viewers. In the previews for this episode, we see footage of Tate – with her boyfriend/assistant coach, Bryan Caraway – browbeating Rousey in a lounge over her striking and apparently goading her into snapping. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in full, because it may cause Ms. Tate to not look as innocent as she has tried to portray herself in the media to this point.
In a Twitter post a couple of weeks ago, Chris Holdsworth alluded to a female cast member making herself into something of a pariah in the house. It’s really anyone’s guess who it could be, but tonight could be the episode where we start to see just who that person is. Is it the brash Shayna Baszler? The exuberant, young Sarah Moras? The triumphant Pena? We’ll just have to wait and see.
The third episode of The Ultimate Fighter Season 18 airs tonight at 6pm PST/9pm EST on FOX Sports 1, and at 7pm PST/10pm EST on Sportsnet 360 here in Canada. Don’t forget to keep it locked to MMASucka.com for more recaps, analysis, and the latest goings-on in mixed martial arts.
