The Octagon will be set inside the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada this Saturday night for UFC 173 and the staff here at MMASucka will make our predictions for the entire main card.
The main event is for the UFC bantamweight championship, as Renan Barao looks to continue on his winning ways against Team Alpha Male product T.J. Dillashaw. Light Heavyweights Dan Henderson and Daniel Cormier will do battle in the co-main event.
Round out the UFC 173 Pay-Per-View are three action packed fights as, Robbie Lawler takes on Jake Ellenberger, Takeya Mizugaki goes toe-to-toe with Francisco Rivera and Jamie Varner squares off with James Krause.
As always the staff at MMASucka.com will make their predictions for the entire main card. As you can see from our overall running scores, some of us are much better than others. But without further ado, check out the MMASucka Staff Predictions.
Below are the scores after our UFC 172.
Allen – 29-10
Justin – 27-17
Jeremy – 26-18
Suraj – 15-7
Callum – 13-9
Thinesh – 10-7
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Renan Barao vs. T.J. Dillashaw
Jeremy: With Duane Ludwig at the helm of Team Alpha Male for this one last fight, Dillashaw will be his last chance at championship gold. Dillashaw seems to have come the longest way since going under the tutelage of “Bang” however is that enough to stop Barao for the first time in years. UFC President Dana White has been pushing how good Barao is over the past little while and truth be told he is undefeated in his last 32 fights. My pick is Renan Barao via Round 2 TKO.
Allen: Dillashaw is actually one of the better bantamweights in the division. The way his striking has evolved over the past few years has been unbelievable. That is probably Duane Ludwig’s best achievement in coaching Team Alpha Male. Mendes and Faber were already established contenders, while Dillashaw was still working his way up. Now he’s facing one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world. It’s hard to see where he has an advantage though. Barao is so well-rounded and unpredictable. He knows how to control the octagon and dictate the pace of the fight. Whether he wants to stand and trade or take the fight to the ground, expect Barao to be in control. Renan Barao via Round 1 TKO
Callum: For my money, there is a strong argument for Renan Barao being the most technically gifted fighters in the UFC today. TJ Dillashaw seems a little bit out of his depth here, with his most high profile victory being over Mike Easton, though arguably he beat Raphael Assuncao. Dillashaw doesn’t want any part of Barao on the ground and his only chance is on the feet, but if Barao can get his timing and distance going then he will take Dillashaw apart. Renan Barao via Round 1 TKO
Justin: I already called this one in this week’s Stats for Suckas, so go there if you want more details on my decision. I’ve got Barao taking this by stoppage in the championship rounds. Renan Barao via Round 4 TKO
Suraj: I have been preaching this for quite some time, but Renan Barao will likely not be beaten as a bantamweight and is pound-for-pound one of the most dominant fighters in MMA today. He is dangerous in all facets of the game and I do not see one area TJ Dillashaw can even compete with him. They are simply running out of fighters in the division and once Raphael Assuncao gets his shot, it will be interesting to see what Barao decides. For now, he will likely walk away without a scratch against a very out-of-his-element Dillashaw. Renan Barao via Round 3 TKO.
Daniel Cormier vs. Dan Henderson
Jeremy: I never wanted this fight to happen. Henderson is a legend who could succumb to the wrath of Cormier. With a victory over the former Pride champ, DC could earn himself a shot at UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones. Even though Henderson could potentially be done after this fight, how much fun is it going to be to see two Olympic wrestlers go toe-to-toe. My pick is Daniel Cormier via Round 1 Knockout.
Allen: This is going to get ugly fast. Henderson won’t go down without a fight, everyone knows that. You’ll never have to question his will. What you have to question is the lack of head movement in his recent fights, along with how slow he’s moving in general. He’s going to witness a drastic change from Shogun to Cormier in terms of speed and overall strength. Sure Henderson has the dangerous right hand, but didn’t Roy Nelson have that too? How about Frank Mir’s ground game, wasn’t that something Cormier had to avoid at all costs? Also how about trying to stand and trade with Antonio Silva? Cormier won of all those fights handily and avoided being in those precarious situations. It’s time to start embracing the grind critics (I’m going to use that lame phrase, until he retires). Daniel Cormier via Round 2 TKO
Callum: Daniel Cormier is choosing to stay active rather than wait around for a title shot, and he takes a rather odd fight against Dan Henderson here. Henderson does still have power in his hands as we clearly saw against Shogun Rua, but if Cormier goes out here and blows him over it won’t raise too many eyebrows. It will however be a good name to build up his resume – certainly better than Patrick Cummins. Daniel Cormier via Round 3 TKO
Justin: Fights like this make me think that the UFC either really hates Dan Henderson or absolutely loves Daniel Cormier. For “DC,” this is all but a “gimme” fight. As long as he’s smart enough to avoid the “H-Bomb” – which he is – expect Cormier to use his speed and vastly superior MMA wrestling to stop Hendo. Daniel Cormier via Round 2 TKO
Suraj: Dan Henderson is already a legend and will go down in history as one of the best all-time. However, stepping into the cage with Daniel Cormier may be one of the toughest battles of his life, and he’s been through a plethora of them leading up to tonight. Cormier is a a very athletic and big light heavyweight while Henderson’s athleticism as an all-around fighter is dwindling rapidly. His one-punch knockout ability is pound-for-pound one of the best, but it will be interesting to see if Cormier gives him any chance to land a deciding blow. Cormier is well on his way to elite level status and getting through Henderson is the perfect stepping stone. Daniel Cormier via Round 2 TKO.
Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Ellenberger
Jeremy: Can you say fireworks? Lawler and Ellenberger are bound to bring the heat to the Octagon. Fans are definitely in for a treat and I highly doubt it will be going to the judges scorecards. I am not going to dig deep into this one, so my pick is Robbie Lawler via Round 3 TKO.
Allen: The people’s main event is the label for this fight. When it was announced, I was jumping up and down to the news. This is going to be an outstanding fight and the favorite to win fight of the night. I’m concerned that Lawler is coming back too quickly coming from that hellacious fight. He has to face arguably a better striker and a much more quicker opponent in Ellenberger. I’m expecting Ellenberger to come out and push the pace early. He’s had a 10 month layoff and the abysmal performance against Rory McDonald still remains fresh into everyone’s mind. He’s got a point to prove, although Lawler does as well. In the end, speed and rapid combinations are going to lead him towards victory. Ellenberger is known to slow down in the third round, so I’m expecting this to be a very close fight. He will survive though. Jake Ellenberger via Unanimous Decision
Callum: I made the mistake of getting excited for Ellenberger/MacDonald, so I’m keeping my excitement levels down for this one. Lawler is coming in after a worryingly short lay off from a grueling five round fight where he took 111 significant strikes to the head. This doesn’t bode well for him being 100%, but I’m not convinced of Ellenberger’s ability to hold his own against high level welterweights either. I think Lawler does enough to win the decision here, but it will not be the same kind of performance we saw at UFC 171. Robbie Lawler via Unanimous Decision
Justin: What can Jake Ellenberger do that Johny Hendricks can’t? Outside of throw more varied strikes in the clinch, I don’t see anything in the “Juggernaut’s” arsenal that Lawler wouldn’t have an answer for based on his last fight. Lawler’s experience, and buzzsaw-like nature will see him win the day. Robbie Lawler via Unanimous Decision
Suraj: This fight has a the makings of an absolute beauty, with two elite level strikers that enjoy throwing and taking the punches. Rory MacDonald got the best of Jake Ellenberger in his last fight, but in his defense, he was on fire prior to that, losing only to Carlos Condit and Martin Kampmann in his last 10 fights. Speaking of fire, Robbie Lawler has probably been the best story in MMA, making one of the best comebacks in the sport’s history. He lost in an absolutely amazing fight against Johny Hendricks for the welterweight championship but does not seem to be slowing down. While this could be Ellenberger’s second ticket to welterweight gold, Lawler seems like the hungriest fighter in MMA, and it’s hard to go against a fight that just keeps coming back. Robbie Lawler via Unanimous Decision.
Takeya Mizugaki vs. Francisco Rivera
Jeremy: Rivera may be fairly unknown to the casual fan, but he is bringing a 5-0, 1NC to the cage against Mizugaki and if the Japanese star picks up a victory in this match-up he will also be riding a five-fight streak. Mizugaki could be in for a battle on the feet, however I still feel that he will have the experience to win the judges nod. My pick is Takeya Mizugaki via Unanimous Decision.
Allen: This is the toughest fight to choose on the card. Mizugaki is underrated, but he doesn’t do anything particularly special. He’s technically sound and knows how to mix it up well. I’m concerned that Rivera’s explosiveness could overwhelm him. You don’t see many bantamweights hit as hard as Rivera, not to mention how well his timing is. While his timing is good, he can get reckless like he did against George Roop. I’ll usually favor the more technically sound fighter over someone who is dangerous and reckless. It also helps that Mizugaki has a great chin and has proven that he can dictate the pace of a fight. Takeyz Mizugaki via Unanimous Decision
Callum: Rivera is a significant underdog here, but I can’t really see why. He’s 5-0 (1) in his last six fights, with five knockout finishes, while Mizugaki has made a habit of close decisions. Both of these fights are hanging out at the bottom of the UFC’s top 15 in the bantamweight division, and a win here could be the springboard for something more for either one. Francisco Rivera via Round 2 TKO
Justin: Francisco Rivera and his quest to find his long-lost father is a great story leading into this bout. So much so, that people seem to be focusing on that more than the fight itself. Rivera is a great boxer, but Takeya Mizugaki is a capable boxer with solid wrestling chops, and that can cancel out any advantage on the feet. Takeya Mizugaki via Unanimous Decision
Suraj: Two thiry-year-olds trying to make a run in the UFC, Takeya Mizugaki and Francisco Rivera come from very different backgrounds but have the same goal come UFC 173. While Mizugaki has demonstrated great conditioning and endurance throughout his career, the not-so-experienced Rivera has won via KO/TKO in seven of his last 10 bouts. However, does he have the skills to finish Mizugaki? The possibility is there, as he knocked out George Roop in his last bout. Nevertheless, I think Mizugaki’s experience and ability to grind a fight will help him get the victory. Takeya Mizugaki via Unanimous Decision
Jamie Varner vs. James Krause
Jeremy: Kicking off the Pay-Per-View is a fun lightweight battle between Varner and Krause. The lightweight division is one of the most stacked in the UFC and Krause was inching closer and closer to the top-10 until his eight-fight winning streak game to a halt against Bobby Green at UFC Fight for the Troops 3. Varner made his return to the UFC with a bang over Edson Barboza, but he has since gone 1-3. The dreaded three-fight losing streak could push Varner out of the Octagon, but his style brings fans to their feet, so who knows. While Krause doesn’t have the UFC experience Varner does, he has more than 20-fights, so he is far from green. My pick is James Krause via Unanimous Decision.
Allen: Krause’s jab could cause problems, but he tends to get reckless and that could lead him to being taken down repeatedly. Varner is a veteran and knows that he needs to tighten up his style. He can’t get into wild exchanges and has to get back to wearing his opponents down. He’ll do that here and control Krause through out the fight. Krause is always dangerous, especially when he throws head kicks. i’m just expecting a more intelligent game plan from Varner. He was silly in trying to brawl with Trujillo, who has scary knockout power. He should be smart enough not to get into a kick boxing match with Krause. Jamie Varner via Unanimous Decision
Callum: Jamie Varner is quite possibly fighting for his UFC roster spot here with two losses on the bounce, while Krause lost his win streak against Bobby Green in November and will be hungry to get back to winning ways. Varner is the most experienced fighter, particularly at the top level, but he has been susceptible to submissions in the past. Jamie Varner via Unanimous Decision
Justin: Unlike the esteemed Mr. Leslie, I don’t think it’s simply a possibility that Jamie Varner is fighting for his job: There’s simply no doubt that he is. Lightweight is the most stacked division in the UFC, and with that stress weighing on Varner’s mind, I expect Krause to be able to use it to bait him into a foolish takedown, and catch another guillotine choke. James Krause via Round 2 submission
Suraj: It’s either eaten or be eaten for Jamie Varner, as he steps into the spotlight to hopefully save his UFC career. His back has been against the wall before, and his opponent James Krause is just another hungry fighter in the lightweight division who is trying to crack the top 10. All this fight comes down to is hunger. Will Krause be the next name entering the lightweight discussion, or will Varner live to fight another day? I take the edge in experience and desperation. Varner’s mind has been his own downfall on a regular basis, but I think he gets past that once again. Jamie Varner via Round 3 Submission.
