Stats for Suckas: Demetrious Johnson vs. Ali Bagautinov


Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC 174: Demetrious Johnson vs. Ali Bagautinov.


Demetrious Johnson

Ali Bagautinov

Age 27 29
Camp AMC Pankration Jackson’s MMA
Record 19-2-1 13-2
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Reach 66″ 65.0″
Win Percentage 4 (T)KOs (21%)
7 Submissions (37%)
8 Decisions (42%)
5 (T)KOs (38%)
4 Submissions (31%)
4 Decisions (31%)
Loss Percentage 2 Decisions (100%) 2 Decisions (100%)
Last (T)KO Victory Dec. 14th, 2013, over Joseph Benavidez Sep. 4th, 2013, over Marcos Vinicius Borges Pancini
Last Submission Victory July 27th, 2013, over John Moraga Sep. 17th, over Vadim Zlobich
Last Decision Victory Jan. 26th, 2013, over John Dodson Feb. 1st, 2014, over John Lineker
Last (T)KO Loss N/A N/A
Last Submission Loss N/A N/A
Last Decision Loss Oct. 1st, 2011, to Dominick Cruz May 26th, 2011, to Evgeniy Lazukov
Submission Victories by Method RNC 3x (49%)
Armbar 2x (29%)
Guillotine 1x (14%)
Keylock 1x (14%)
Armbar 2x (50%)
RNC 1x (25%)
Guillotine 1x (25%)
Submission Losses by method N/A N/A
Most Takedowns Allowed in a Fight 10 2
Fewest Significant Strikes in a Victory 7 38
Decision Victories in the UFC 6 2
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.32 2.99
Striking Accuracy 51% 41%
Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute 1.9 2.35
Striking Defense 65% 60%
Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min. 3.69 3.45
Takedown Accuracy 55% 47%
Takedown Defense Percentage 61% 50%
Average Submission per 15 Min. 0.3 0.7
Average Submission Completion Rate 99%* 75.73%
Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight 127, on Jan. 26th, 2013, against John Dodson 49, on Feb. 1st, 2014, against John Lineker
Total Fight Time 4 hrs, 37 min, 48 sec 1 hr, 53 min, 11 sec

The flyweights will finally be headlining a pay per view of their own, and I have a feeling both Demetrious Johnson and Ali Bagautinov will be looking to impress. Johnson has proven that his speed is deadly, while Bagautinov has been crafty enough to tailor his game to his opponents. The big question is this: Will “The Puncher King” be able to maintain enough space to counter Johnson’s mini-blitzes and spam takedowns the way Dominick Cruz and Brad Pickett did? That’s hard to say, but I could see him pulling it off. With that said, I predict that Bagautinov will get the close decision win over “Mighty Mouse,” and become the 2nd ever UFC Flyweight Champion.


* The bulk of Johnson’s submission victories came before his WEC/UFC tenure. As such, FightMetric does not have fully reliable statistics in this regard.



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