Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC Fight Night 44: Swanson vs. Stephens.
Statistics |
Cub Swanson |
Jeremy Stephens |
| Age | 30 | 28 |
| Camp | Jackson’s MMA | Alliance MMA |
| Professional Record | 20-5 | 23-9 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Reach | 70.0″ | 71.0″ |
| Win Percentage | 8 (T)KOs (40%) 7 Submissions (35%) 5 Decisions (25%) |
15 (T)KOs (65%) 3 Submissions (13%) 5 Decisions (22%) |
| Loss Percentage | 1 (T)KO (20%) 3 Submissions (60%) 1 Decision (20%) |
1 (T)KO (11%) 3 Submissions (33%) 5 Decisions (56%) |
| Last (T)KO Victory | July 6th, 2013, over Dennis Siver | Nov. 19th, 2013, over Rony Jason |
| Last Submission Victory | Nov. 18th, 2009, over John Franchi | Feb. 21st, 2007, over Norm Alexander |
| Last Decision Victory | Feb. 16th, 2013, over Dustin Poirier | Jan. 25th, 2014, over Darren Elkins |
| Last (T)KO Loss | June 7th, 2009, to Jose Aldo | Dec. 8th, 2012, to Yves Edwards |
| Last Submission Loss | Nov. 12th, 2011, to Ricardo Lamas | Feb. 7th, 2009, to Joe Lauzon |
| Last Decision Loss | Aug. 8th, 2010, to Chad Mendes | May 15th, 2012, to Donald Cerrone |
| Submission Victories by Method | Punches 3x (43%) Guillotine 2x (28.5%) RNC 2x (28.5%) |
Triangle 1x (33%) Armbar 1x (33%) Punches 1x (33%) |
| Submission Losses by method | Arm Triangle 1x (33%) Guillotine 1x (33%) RNC 1x (33%) |
Armbar 2x (67%) RNC 1x (33%) |
| Fights in the WEC | 8 | 0 |
| Shortest Fight | 0:08 (Loss to Jose Aldo) | 0:33 (Win over Ted Worthington) |
| Decision Victories in the UFC | 1 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.41 | 2.69 |
| Striking Accuracy | 46% | 45% |
| Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 2.61 | 2.29 |
| Striking Defense | 65% | 63% |
| Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min. | 2.03 | 1.82 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 56% | 50% |
| Takedown Defense Percentage | 47% | 61% |
| Average Submission per 15 Min. | 1 | 0.7 |
| Average Submission Completion Rate | 30.27% | 21.94% |
| Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight | 83, against Mackens Semerzier, Nov. 11th, 2010 | 55, against Danny Downes, June 4th, 2011 |
| Total Fight Time | 3 hrs, 18 min, 13 sec | 4 hrs, 52 min, 58 sec |
Looking at the metrics here, Cub Swanson appears to not only be the more active fighter, but also appears to have an edge over Jeremy Stephens in almost ever category. Stephens is more of a head-hunter than Swanson is, and I see that costing him whether he gets knocked out (like in the Yves Edwards fight) or taken to a decision. Expect Cub to get the win here.
