UFC 228 is lacking in high-end talent, but we may see a good amount of finishes on this card. For cash games, you are looking for 4 wins out of your 6 fighters. I do not recommend stacking the main event but I do explore a few other fights to stack.
In GPPs, you are looking for 6 wins to have a chance to take home the big prize with an optimal lineup. Good luck making lineups this week. This analysis should help you put those 6 fighter lineups together.
UFC 228 DraftKings Breakdown
Woodley vs Till
Brews and Bets: UFC 228 Edition with @tyslice23 will be out by Friday. Subscribe to my Youtube page when you click the DraftKings video above to be notified.
The Main Event: Tyron Woodley $8.1K vs Darren Till $8.1K
I am glad this fight is happening but I do not anticipate a firefight here. This has the makings of a back and forth chess match. Both fighters are patient and have picked their spots in their most recent fights. This is a championship fight so it is scheduled for 5 rounds but for DraftKings purposes I do not see this scoring well for the winner and do not recommend stacking this fight. The elephant in the room is Darren Till’s ability to make championship weight. If Till makes weight I expect him to have a 10 or 15 pound weight advantage on Saturday night.
Tyron Woodley has paths to victory. He is very well rounded and is the better wrestler. Woodley is very strong but I see Till have the weight and strength advantage so that limits Woodley’s grappling and clinch work. Woodley’s biggest advantage is his speed and quickness which he could use to get in and out of the pocket to strike and reset. His right hand is powerful and he can get a flash knockout but I see Woodley’s best path to victory being by decision in a point fight.
Darren Till is physically imposing. He has a big frame and can get the flash knockout with his powerful left hand. I would like to see him attack the body with somebody kicks with the left leg. Till’s path to victory is also to win rounds in this striking battle. This fight is essentially a pick’em on DraftKings and I like Till to win a close decision. I am looking at fading this fight in cash and playing it low volume in GPPs.
The Co-Main Event: Valentina Shevchenko $9.6K vs Nicco Montano $6.6K
Valentina Shevchenko is the title challenger in this fight and will most likely go off as the largest betting favorite as a title challenger in UFC history. Shevchenko is better everywhere. If you can fit her into your lineups she is a great play and should top 100 points here. The problem with playing her is you need a low priced fighter as well to fit her into your lineups. Nicco Montano can hang around if this stays on the feet and turns into a striking fight. If these two strike for most of the five rounds it will surely score well as a cash stack.
I anticipate Valentina gets this fight to the ground at some point and then a barrage of ground and pound should pile up points for her. She can also lock in a sub. Montano is the champ but she only has a puncher’s chance to win this fight and I am fading her in GPPs. The cash stack could pay off 150+ points.
GPP Fight: Frank Camacho $7.5K vs Geoffrey Neal $8.7K
This fight is favored to finish and Neal has the speed advantage and cardio advantage. Neal fights out of Dallas, Texas and his last 6 fights have finished. Frank Camacho is tough and very technical for 6 to 7 minutes; at that point in the 2nd round he looks to gas out and takes damage while winging wild hooks from his hip. Camacho has a great chin so he may be able to withstand a few Neal power punches. Neal hasn’t beat very good opponents but he has finished guys he should have finished. I like Neal as a GPP play and you can play a little Camacho is cash/GPP.
You can check our @JerseyBoysMMA Youtube page for an interview with Frank Camacho.
GPP Fight: Craig White $8.8K vs Diego Sanchez $7.4K
This fight is also favored to finish. Diego Sanchez was 0-2 in 2017 and got finished twice in the 1st round. Granted Sanchez was finished by more established guys than Craig White, but the truth remains Sanchez is 36 years old with close to 40 fights.
Craig White is a guy who made his UFC debut on 10 days notice vs Neil Magny. White performed well vs Magny until Magny was able to frame his head in the clinch and finish him with a big knee followed by GNP. White has not seen the 3rd round in his 22 fights so I expect to see this finish early. You can play both guys in GPPs but my preferred play is White.
GPP Fight: Darren Stewart $7.3K vs Charles Byrd $8.9K
We had a good conversation about this fight on the podcast and a difference of opinion on our preferred plays. One thing we agreed on is this fight will finish. Darren Stewart is a high energy striker with big power in his right hand. He has the ability to finish on the feet but doesn’t possess a sub game on tape. He will clinch and use wrestling but that can be dangerous here vs Byrd.
Byrd is a jack of all trades. He possesses good wrestling, karate, kickboxing, and muay thai striking. He is 3-0 in UFC fights (two of those fights were on DWTNCS) and finished all three fights via submission. I really like Darren Stewart’s price for a GPP play but Byrd is very dangerous. You can play both guys in GPPs. I don’t expect to see a 3rd round here.
GPP Fight: Niko Price $7.9K vs Abdul Razak Alhassan $8.3K
This fight is favored to finish and it’s essentially a pick em. Neither guy has been knocked out in their careers. Alhassan is a very powerful puncher. He is a Judo player that wants to strike and hurt you with that big right hand. Niko Price is a jackknife in the octagon. He’s creative and resourceful, looking for ways to win and his opportunity. His nickname is The Hybrid and that’s how he fights. He has long arms and probes early in the fight to get you to commit to what you want to do then takes that away and changes the complexion of the fight. Play both guys in GPPs but my preferred play is Niko Price with a 2nd round finish.
Top Tier Leans ($9.6k-$8.7k):.
- Zabit Magomedsharipov $9.4K- This fight is a mismatch. Zabit is highly skilled and long. He has the advantage everywhere and could finish this fight by submission or KO/TKO. The only issue is his price so how do you fit him into your lineups. I like him in GPPs and cash.
- Jessica Andrade $9.1K– Andrade is a DraftKings high scorer. She is a beast with her strength, striking, takedowns, and passes on the ground. This is a stylistic nightmare for Karolina Kowalkiewicz. In all likelihood, the winner of this fight gets a title fight with Thug Rose. Andrade is a safe cash game play and should get moderate GPP consideration.
- Tatiana Suarez $9.2K– Suarez may be more physical than Andrade. I see this fight lasting a few rounds because Esparza is a wrestler also so these two girls have very similar skill sets. I just feel Suarez is the better wrestler and more skilled. Suarez has the height and reach advantage. Suarez should be able to score well in a 3 round decision with multiple takedowns, passes and GNP. I like her in cash and moderately in GPPs.
Mid Tier Leans ($8.6K-$7.7K):
- Aljamain Sterling $8.5K- Aljo has a 6.5” reach advantage and possesses a reach advantage with his legs. He should be able to get the best of Stamann on the feet and the wrestling is a toss-up. I like Aljo to win a 3 round decision. I’m not sure how well this fight scores but I do like Aljo to win so he can be played in cash at his price. If you play these guys in GPPs keep your volume low.
- Irene Aldana $8.2K vs Lucie Pudilova $8K– This is a pick ‘em striking battle. I like Aldana to win because she has a bigger frame and reach. Aldana has also fought the better competition. Pudilova is very young so big improvements here aren’t out of the question. If you want an evenly priced stack for cash, this fight should go all 3 rounds and total 130+ points.
Lower Tier Leans ($7.6K-$6.6K):
- Roberto Sanchez $7.2K- Sanchez has a BJJ game that will make Brooks think twice about using his wrestling. Sanchez is relentless in getting the fight to the ground and chasing the submission. He will have a 3-inch height advantage vs Brooks which should help with the body lock if he can get the back or backpack him which he is known to do. Sanchez is a solid GPP play. Brooks will have the striking advantage here but I don’t see it staying on the feet very long. Sanchez has one loss by KO/TKO when Joseph Morales got up from being mauled on the ground to hurt Sanchez bad with a straight right hand.
- Jim Miller $7.6K– Jim Miller has a clear advantage on the ground. He can win this fight with straight up guts and determination. If Jim Miller can make this fight ugly he can grind out a win. My concern is Jim Miller is 35 years old, has lost 4 straight fights, and was brutally knocked out by Dan Hooker in April.
Please follow me on twitter and like/retweet my article at @shppirate12. DM me any questions you may have. I’m always talking fights!
Embed from Getty Images