I try and turn the ship around with what the odds say is a riskier bet than last time.
Another Friday, another chance at a parlay.
This week I’ll review what happened with my last bet, give you my opinion on the best options for UFC 230, and add in a total flier in case you’re feeling particularly risky.
UFC: Moncton Recap
Last week was a bit of a rough start, as I went a subpar 1 for 3. Although Soukhamthath once again proved himself one of the worst fight strategists in the game, it was still enough to overtake newcomer Martinez in a 29-28 decision. As for Anthony Smith, he’s proven that his light heavyweight run isn’t a fluke, though he’s probably reached his ceiling in the division as I can’t see him giving Gustafsson, Jones, or Cormier much trouble.
Let’s see if I can’t turn it around with this week’s picks.
Rules Reminder and Disclaimer
Once again, here is the disclaimer that spells out you shouldn’t take my word as anything close to gospel, and should probably tell me in the comments what I’m doing wrong:
THIS ARTICLE IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, MOSTLY THE ENTERTAINMENT OF YOU LAUGHING AT MY LOST MONEY AS THIS SERIES CONTINUES. I AM NOT QUALIFIED TO GIVE ANY BETTING ADVICE WHATSOEVER, SO PLACE BETS AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Since that’s out of the way, here are the rules:
- All bets must be parlays of 3 or more fights
- Bets must be at least $5 and not to exceed $20
- Payouts must be at least 5x the original investment (i.e. $5 bet means a payout of $25, etc.)
Got it? Good. Then on to the UFC 230 picks
Adam Wieczorek (-225)
Stepping in on short notice for Ruslan Magomedov, Adam Wieczorek will be facing Marcos Rogerio De Lima on the Fight Pass prelims. Making history his last time out by being the first heavyweight to finish an opponent by omoplata in the UFC, Wieczorek is 2-0 under the promotion’s banner and 10-1 overall, his lone loss being to Marcin Tybura in only his second professional fight.
De Lima, on the other hand, has had a middling career at best. Going 4-4 under the UFC banner as a 205lber, De Lima moves up a division after failing to make weight in his last two contests and consequently will give up a 4-inch height advantage and 6-inch reach advantage to “Siwy”.
While De Lima certainly has knockout power and will have the striking advantage, his ground game is abysmal, as demonstrated by his last three losses coming by way of first or second round submission. Given the fact he’ll be the smaller man and Wieczorek’s propensity to make his opponent’s tap, this fight is a great value even picking the favorite.
Ronaldo Souza (+150)
Coming off a contested split decision loss against Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 224, “Jacare” finds a tough matchup in former UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman for Saturday’s co-main event. Having gone 2-2 in his last four bouts age seems to have caught up to Souza as he was noticeably slower in his last contest, however, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizard still has an excellent ground game and power in his hands having knocked out Derek Brunson at the start of this year.
His opponent Chris Weidman makes his return to the octagon after a year and a half layoff, having finally snapped a three-fight losing streak with a win over the aforementioned Gastelum in July of 2017. Although those three losses all came by way of KO/TKO, “The All-American” fought a murderer’s row of contenders and made each of those matches competitive, keeping himself in the middleweight title conversation.
Although MMA math and age favor Weidman here, I still like Souza for this fight. Weidman’s striking defense has consisted of eating punches his last several fights, and because he’ll have to worry about the threat of Jacare’s ground game it should leave him as open as ever to for big shots to land. Even if Souza’s striking is sloppy, if he can rock the former champ and get him down on the ground it’ll be all over. I think it’s worth the add here.
Brian Kelleher (+110)
Coming off a knockout loss to John Lineker at UFC 224, Kelleher has gone 3-2 in the UFC and has proven himself to be a workhorse with a lot of durability. While he doesn’t shine in one particular area, he has an all-around skill set and is hard to anticipate, making his tenacity admirable if not questionable in certain situations (see UFC 224)
Facing him will be Montel Jackson, a Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series alum who fills in on short notice for Dom Pilarte. Jackson is looking to rebound off a loss to Ricky Simon and will have a staggering 9-inch reach advantage against Kelleher as well as being the more athletic of the two, making him a tough out for “Boom”.
While it’s never recommended to put two underdogs in a parlay, Kelleher started as the favorite in this fight and has slowly shifted to the other side of the betting line, which I disagree with. Although Jackson appears to have real potential and Kelleher SHOULD be an easier fight for him than Simon, he’s still green and has shown questionable fight I.Q. Given Kelleher’s durability, persistence, and berth of experience, I think the clever veteran finds a way to submit the young prospect.
What’s on the line
Because of the double underdog pick, I’m going to go lower and bet $10 for a $65.83 payout.
Check back to see how I did as well as my UFC: Denver Picks
Money Spent: $20
Total Net Gain/Loss: -$20
Think you have better picks than mine? Wanna help a guy out? Leave a comment below and let me know!
Embed from Getty Images