UFC on ESPN 4 goes down this Saturday in Texas and features some interesting matchups. However, there are not many underdog picks with good odds. Because of this, creative betting will be essential to make money this weekend. That being said, here are some UFC on ESPN 4 betting tips to help you do just that.
1. Greg Hardy (-105) vs Juan Adams (-115)
Hardy’s sole loss came against Allen Crowder at UFC Fight Night 143 after being disqualified for an illegal knee. Hardy believed that he was winning the fight, and claimed the multitude of illegal strikes were accidental.
All four of Hardy’s wins have come via first-round finishes. Hardy is a fearsome striker with frightening knockout power. Juan Adams’ wins have all come via TKO, with four bouts being finished in the first round.
Juan Adams represents an obvious step up in competition for Hardy. Both men are incredibly powerful and will be looking for quick finishes this weekend. If either of the two men connects, the bout will likely be over.
However, it is incredibly hard to decide who will land the killer blow first. Because of this, betting that the bout will not leave the first round is a smart pick in this explosive matchup. Many bookies are offering 2/1 odds on this outcome, making it a no-brainer if you want to bet on Greg Hardy’s latest high profile appearance.
Tip – Total rounds under 0.5
2. Dan Hooker (-125) vs James Vick (+105)
Dan Hooker (17-8) and James Vick (13-3) have both recently suffered the most brutal KO losses of their respective careers.
In his last octagon appearance, Hooker was pulverised by expert striker Edson Barboza at UFC on Fox 31, being crippled by a series of body strikes in the third round. Prior to his last fight against Paul Felder, in which Felder won via unanimous decision, Vick was knocked out cold by UFC action-fighter and fan favourite Justin Gaethje in the main event of UFC Fight Night 135.
Both fighters had previously been riding impressive winning streaks and are both still exciting members of the stacked lightweight roster. However, Hooker is the more powerful striker and can finish the fight with a variety of impressive techniques. There is a great chance that Vick’s questionable chin could be shattered by a signature Hooker knee. In order to maximise odds, betting on Hooker to win inside the distance is the best way to make money from this interesting bout.
Tip – Dan Hooker to win inside the distance
3. Aleksei Oleinik (+130) vs Walt Harris (-150)
MMA veteran Alexei Oleinik (57-12-1) boasts a staggering 45 submission victories. The Russian has strangled many top fighters including Mark Hunt, Mirko Filipovic, and Travis Browne.
Walt Harris (12-7) has won all of his fights via KO/TKO. ‘The Big Ticket’ is certainly a threat to Oleinik on the feet and will be looking to establish himself as a legitimate heavyweight contender this weekend.
Despite Harris’ power, Oleinik’s underdog status makes him an irresistible pick against the surging American. Considering the fact that 79% of Oleinik’s victories are via submission, it is worth putting faith in ‘The Boa Constrictor’ to win via submission in the co-main event.
Tip – Aleksei Oleinik to win via submission
4. Andrei Arlovski (+165) vs Ben Rothwell (-190)
Both Andrei Arlovski (27-18) and Ben Rothwell (16-11) are undeniably past their primes. Arlovski has two wins in his last eleven bouts and Rothwell has not won a bout since early 2016.
Although Rothwell is likely to be the more technical fighter in this heavyweight bout, he has been far less active than the former UFC heavyweight champion Arlovski. Arlovski has not been finished in his last seven bouts and may be able to outwork Rothwell on his way to a potential decision victory. Rothwell looked unimpressive against Blagoy Ivanov in his UFC return and although Arlovski may be shot, he is worth a punt as the underdog in the battle of the veterans.
Tip – Andrei Arlovski to win
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