UFC on ESPN+ 28 will take place behind closed doors in Brasilia in response to the Coronavirus outbreak. Despite these strange circumstances, there are plenty of opportunities to make money on this weekend’s card. After all three betting tips were correct for UFC 248, here are three UFC on ESPN+ 28 Betting tips to help you win big on a weekend marred by the global crisis.
UFC on ESPN+ 28 Betting Tips
1. Kevin Lee (-140) vs. Charles Oliveira (+120)
Kevin Lee (18-5) takes on the surging Charles Oliveira (28-8) in a barnburner main event in Brazil. On his return to the lightweight division, Lee sent rival Gregor Gillespie to the shadow realm with a brutal head-kick at UFC 244. This was enough to end a two-fight skid and send Lee back into the top tier of the division.
However, Oliveira will certainly test the American in all aspects of his game. Oliveira is a submission specialist, with 18 of his 28 wins coming by way of submission. In Kevin Lee’s title fight against Tony Ferguson, Ferguson landed a triangle choke from the bottom to win the bout. This should give Oliveira great confidence, and ‘Do Bronx’ will certainly look to capitalize on any similar lapses of concentration form Lee.
Lee will certainly be well prepared for the challenges Oliveira will pose. Lee credited his move to Tristar Gym in Montreal for his spectacular win over Gillespie, and it was evident in the bout itself that Lee looked a far more impressive fighter. Having a genius like Firas Zahabi engineering his gameplan whilst training with numerous elite fighters will make Lee a problem for any fighter on the roster. Lee is a fantastic grappler, and if he can stay focused and avoid Oliveria’s submission attempts, a wrestling based gameplan could certainly be advisable. However, given the striking display he has recently shown, he could exploit Oliveira’s supposed striking weakness and pick the Brazillian apart on the feet.
Originally, one could argue that the home advantage could swing the bout in Oliveira’s favour. However, given that the bout will now take place with no fans in the arena, this advantage will be nullified. Considering this, in addition to the stylistic matchup, Kevin Lee is an attractive favourite pick for this weekend’s main event. Lee has since missed weight for the event (158.5lbs). By not attempting to cut extra weight, this will hopefully not compromise his performance too much.
Tip – Kevin Lee to win
2. Jussier Formiga (-150) vs. Brandon Moreno (+130)
After the recent title fight controversy, the flyweight division is screaming out for a new title contender. Jussier Formiga (23-6) and Brandon Moreno (16-5-1) will look to make their case for gold in a fight with title implications this weekend.
Moreno’s fortunes have certainly changed in recent times. Since being cut from the UFC after two consecutive losses, Moreno has gone on a three-fight unbeaten strike, including an entertaining draw against Askar Askarov. Moreno is very dangerous on the ground, winning ten bouts by way of submission. Moreno uses pressure to maximize the effectiveness of his wrestling and will seek to utilize his impressive scrambles to ensure that Formiga does not gain any dominant wrestling positions over him.
However, it will be incredibly hard to get a result against Formiga. After a dominant win against Deiveson Figueiredo, many tipped Formiga to go on and claim flyweight gold. However, Joseph Benavidez put an end to that hype, knocking Formiga out in the second round after a dominant display. However, if Formiga can perform anywhere near the level that he did against Figueiredo, he should be able to handle Moreno with relative ease. Formiga is another excellent grappler, who also has 10 wins via submission.
When comparing the two, experience may be a huge factor in Formiga’s success. Formiga has fought all of the premium names in the division, including a split-decision loss to ex-champ Henry Cejudo. If Formiga can utilize his wring-savyness, he should be able to outmanoeuvre the sometimes rash Moreno.
Tip – Jussier Formiga to win
3. Jonny Walker (-145) vs. Nikita Krylov (+125)
Jonny Walker (17-4) faces Nikita Krylov (26-7) in a fight that guarantees fireworks. Both men are coming off losses and will look to return to the win column in style.
When the going gets tough, the tough get going… or so the saying goes. After a brutal KO loss to the cocky Corey Anderson, Jonny Walker is going to have to prove that he has the mental fortitude to be a title contender. Walker became an instant fan favourite after three spectacular knockouts in his first three UFC bouts. Walker possesses both fearsome strength and speed If if he can land on Krylov there is every chance that the Ukrainian will face his second-ever knockout loss.
Nikita Krylov has never won a bout by decision. Considering the fact that Walker has only seen the final bell once in his career, fans have every right to be excited about this matchup. Krylov is a much more well-rounded fighter, winning fifteen fights by way of submission. Although Krylov may be a fearsome striker too, he would be well advised to try and test the wrestling of Walker and strangle the Brazillian into his third submission loss. Despite this, Walker still has an excellent chance of a victory. No fighter has managed to successfully mount meaningful wrestling offence against him. Walker has something special about him, and that’s why he is the third and final tip of this week.
Perhaps disappointingly, all three UFC on ESPN+ 28 Betting tips back the favourite of their respective bout. But in a time marred by uncertainty, why not let some solid bets bring some stability to the fight world?
Tip – Jonny Walker to win