After their first fight was canceled due to COVID, Thiago Santos will finally take on the veteran Glover Teixeira at UFC on ESPN+ 40 this weekend. Despite there being numerous interesting matchups, there are not many high-value underdogs on the card. Because of this, a parlay of the below UFC on ESPN+ 40 betting tips is the way to go for the latest event at the UFC APEX.
UFC on ESPN+ 40 Betting Tips
1) Thiago Santos to win by TKO/KO (-150)
Thiago Santos (21-7) is the most fearsome knockout artist in the light-heavyweight division. Some argue that the Brazillian should even be holding the belt considering the fact that he lost a razor-tight decision to Jon Jones in his last outing and has knocked out the current champion Jan Blachowicz.
Despite being a former middleweight, Santos is by no stretch of the imagination small for the division. “Marreta” is a great striker, who’s powerful kicks could wreak havoc on the aging body of Teixeira. Santos has one-punch knockout power and is never afraid of a brawl. However, against Jon Jones, Santos showed that he has genuinely technical striking ability and the potential to pick apart world-class opponents. Santos will look to keep the fight standing and lay a beating on his fellow Brazillian Teixeira.
However, Glover Teixeira (31-7) will be seeking to capitalize on his momentum by making one last run at UFC gold. Teixeira defied the odds in his last bout to dominate former title challenger Anthony Smith and extend his winning streak to four bouts. The forty-one-year-old in an elite Brazillian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner and knows that his best chance of beating Santos is on the mats. Santos has only two losses by submission on his record, but Teixeira will back himself to raise that to three this weekend.
Although Teixeira has the tools to find victory in the main event, Thiago Santos will likely prove too much for him. Santos has shown that he has solid takedown defense in his last few fights, and the physical advantages he holds over the admittedly deceptively strong Teixeira should be enough for him to keep the fight on the feet. From here, Santos should be able to connect with enough significant strikes to put Teixeira out. As Santos is such a heavy favorite, betting on him to win by KO/TKO is a more appropriate start to these UFC on ESPN+ 40 betting tips.
2) Trevin Giles (-110) to win
Trevin Giles (12-2) faces Bevon Lewis (7-2) in the most interesting bout of the prelims. Both men have had turbulent times as of late and will be looking to re-establish themselves as genuine prospects in the middleweight division.
Giles is a serial finisher and, prior to a loss against Zak Cummings, was riding a nine-fight finishing streak. “The Problem” is well rounded, with five victories by KO/TKO and submission each, meaning that Lewis will have to be cautious wherever the fight goes. Giles has a takedown accuracy of 100% in the UFC and could do very well to force the bout to the mat this weekend. However, in his last victory over James Krause, Giles demonstrated that he can outstrike some of the more established fighters of the division and will certainly feel comfortable on the feet against lewis.
Bevon Lewis is coming off maiden UFC victory against Dequan Townsend. Lewis has had a poor time of late in the organization. In his first fight against Uriah Hall, Lewis showed some sharp striking but ultimately got viciously knocked out. In his next bout vs Darren Stewart, he was both outstruck and outworked by the Brit. These performances will be worrying for Lewis as if he is looking to press the action on the feet, susceptibility to both pressure and counter-striking are worrying signs.
Overall, Giles should win this one. Giles is the more reliable striker and has more options for where to take this fight. Considering the odds are completely identical for this one, Giles holds excellent value and rounds off these UFC on ESPN+ 40 betting tips.