UFC 265: Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane betting odds and pick

Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane
LAS VEGAS, NV - JULY 6: Derrick Lewis stands on the scale during the UFC Fight Night weigh-ins at T-Mobile Arena on July 6, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Ciryl Gane will take his undefeated record into the hometown of Derrick Lewis for the interim heavyweight championship in the main event of UFC 265. Here, we will discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective for Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane.

Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane

  • When: Saturday August 7th, 2021 at 10 p.m. EST (ESPN+ PPV)
  • Where: Toyota Center in Houston, Texas
  • Lines: Lewis +290 and Gane -380; Over 4.5 +150 and under 4.5 -185; Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ +450 and Gane by KO/TKO/DQ +130 or sub +650; Lewis by dec +1100 and Gane by dec +200; Lewis inside the distance +400 and Gane inside the distance -110 (odds from DraftKings sportsbook).

Derrick Lewis

Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis is one of the few men in the UFC to have beaten Francis N’Gannou and he has continued to defy odds and expectations during his 20-fight UFC career on the way to a well-deserved title shot.

Lewis weighs 15 pounds (260) more and is five years (36) older than Gane. Lewis averages 2.59 strikes (significant) landed per minute (SLpM) with 50 percent striking accuracy, with 2.16 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 44 percent striking defense, 0.52 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 26 percent takedown accuracy and 54 percent takedown defense, according to UFC Stats.

“The Black Beast” has won four in a row and of his last five, including second-round knockout wins over Curtis Blaydes (2021) and Alexey Oleynik (2020), decision wins over Ilir Latifi (UD, 2020) and Blagoy Ivanov (SD, 2020) and a TKO loss to Junior Dos Santos (Rd 2, 2019).

Ciryl Gane

Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane carries the longest active winning streak among UFC heavyweights with six straight, having left no doubt in each of his contests against the division’s contenders so far, proving that he is truly game to fight anyone, anywhere.

Gane has a one-inch height and two-inch reach advantage over Lewis. He averages 5.13 SLpM with 54 percent striking accuracy and 2.60 SApM with 63 percent striking defense, 0.82 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 21 percent takedown accuracy and 100 percent takedown defense.

Gane is undefeated in the UFC and overall, with recent wins over Alexander Volkov (UD, 2021), Jairzinho Rozenstruik (UD, 2021), Junior Dos Santos (TKO Rd 2, 2020), Tanner Boser (UD, 2019) and Don’Tale Mayes (sub Rd 3, 2019).

Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane Narratives

The odds and consensus expectation is that Derrick Lewis is too slow and plodding with low output and questionable cardio to match up with the speed, size, footwork and overall skill of Ciryl Gane, though this could have been the consensus narrative leading up to Derrick’s contest against Francis N’Gannou which Lewis won.

While most expect Gane to win the title on Saturday, some still question Gane’s sample size and might consider him to be overvalued and ripe to be upset. And Derrick Lewis possesses the experience and hands that can upset anyone, anywhere, at any given moment.

Derrick Lewis vs Cyril Gane Prediction

We are not going to overthink this one. Ciryl Gane’s speed, technical skill and footwork will allow him to pick apart a very hittable, slow-moving and upright Derrick Lewis, not unlike  technical kickboxer Alexander Volkov did for 2.75 rounds of his fight with Derrick Lewis.

But as Gane proved in his last fight, Bon Gamin is at another level than Volkov with more speed and output than Alexander and movement and jab that will keep Lewis at safe range while setting up pounding kicks to the body and straight lefts and right uppercuts.

While Ciryl could choose to just pick Derrick apart from range while staying away from Lewis’ power and cruising to a unanimous decision, Derrick Lewis has never lost by decision in the UFC, with four losses by TKO and one by rear-naked choke.

Gane has gone on the record to say that he will display a master class in the main event on Saturday night and we expect him to pummel Lewis throughout the fight, accumulating damage to the point that either the referee stops the fight or Derrick fatigues enough to be submitted.

Given Lewis’ puncher’s chance and the large and ever-increasing juice in taking Gane against the spread, we don’t see value on Gane straight up but do expect him to finish Lewis inside the distance.

Pick: Gane wins inside the distance (-110)

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