Betting Tips

Aspen Ladd vs Norma Dumont – UFC Vegas 40 Betting Odds and Pick

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Women’s featherweights Aspen Ladd and Norma Dumont will both be vying to emerge as contenders of the division in the main event of UFC Vegas 40. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

  • When: Saturday, October 16, 2021 4 PM PT (ESPN+)
  • Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Line: Aspen Ladd (-144) and Norma Dumont (+118); odds via Fanduel Sportsbook.

Aspen Ladd

Aspen Ladd will be making her first appearance in the UFC octagon in almost 2 years at featherweight, after failing to make weight in a somewhat concerning manner at UFC Vegas 38 for a bantamweight contest against Macy Chiasson.

Ladd’s previous UFC fights were at bantamweight and is four years younger than her opponent, averaging 5.22 significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) with a 55 percent striking accuracy, 3.84 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 46 percent striking defense, 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 75 percent takedown accuracy, 66 percent takedown defense and 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats.

Ladd has four wins and a loss in her five UFC fights with wins over Yana Kunitskaya (TKO Rd3, 2019), Sijara Eubanks (UD, 2019), Tonya Evinger (TKO Rd1, 2018) and Lina Lansberg (TKO Rd2, 2017) and a loss to Germaine de Randamie (TKO Rd1, 2019).

Norma Dumont

Norma “The Immortal” Dumont has a chance to make it three straight wins as a betting underdog this Saturday in her first UFC main event.

Dumont has a one-inch height and reach advantage over Ladd, averaging 4.98 strikes (significant) landed per minute (SLpM) with a 53 percent striking accuracy, 2.86 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 67 percent striking defense, 1.79 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 40 percent takedown accuracy, 100 percent takedown defense and has made no submission attempts, according to UFC Stats.

Dumont has been an underdog in each of her previous UFC fights, a +285 dog in her win over Felicia Spencer (SD, 2021), a +110 dog in her win over Ashlee Evans-Smith (UD, 2020) and a +300 dog in her loss to Megan Anderson (TKO Rd1, 2020).

Aspen Ladd vs Norma Dumont Prediction

Aspen Ladd might be a favorite in this matchup based on her experience, wins over higher quality opponents, and impressive finishes in the UFC, but Norma Dumont has been the more recently active fighter and brings a size advantage, higher percentage striking differential, and takedown defense when she enters the octagon on Saturday night.

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It makes sense that Aspen Ladd is moving up to featherweight after her problems making bantamweight came to a head at UFC Vegas 38, but it is unclear how she will fare at the higher weight class against larger, more powerful opponents.

Megan Anderson beat Dumont fair and square but had been getting pushed around by Dumont’s power for much of the round before catching Dumont cleanly on the chin, and it was clear that Dumont was very confident in her UFC debut as a huge underdog.

Women’s MMA can be very unpredictable and this contest should be another close one, nearly a coin flip. Given that Aspen Ladd is taking this fight at short notice after a long layoff and is an unknown quantity at featherweight, taken together with Dumont’s size and power advantage and tendency to outperform as an underdog, we see all the value on the Brazilian in this contest.

Pick: Norma Dumont +118

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