Analysis

ONE 169 Co-Main Event Breakdown

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Anytime you can get a rematch in combat sports, it’s a fight that’s worth watching. It’s doubly exciting when said rematch has a championship attached to it, and that’s just what’s going to happen on Friday night.

Due to a relocation of the card, ONE 169 will emanate from Lumpinee Boxing Stadium in Bangkok, Thailand. Live coverage of the card begins Friday night (North America time) at 8 pm ET/ 5 pm PT on Amazon Prime Video. This live stream on Prime is available exclusively to those living in the United States and Canada.

If you’re watching from the United Kingdom and Ireland, ONE 169 will air Saturday morning (London time) at 1 am on Sky Sports. Absent of any 11th-hour adjustments to the bout order, the show will feature 11 contests across MMA, kickboxing, and the focus of the ONE 169 co-main event, Muay Thai.

Muay Thai Championship Rematch in ONE 169 Co-Main Event Friday

Immediately following the battle for the Inaugural ONE Women’s Strawweight Kickboxing Championship, the scene shifts to The Art of Eight Limbs for the co-headliner. The ONE Flyweight Muay Thai Championship is up for grabs when incumbent titleholder Rodtang Jitmuangnon (272-43-10 kickboxing, 15-2 ONE Championship) meets challenger Jacob Smith (16-7 kickboxing, 1-2 ONE Championship).

As with all kickboxing and Muay Thai championship fights, the ONE 169 co-main event is an advertised maximum of five rounds at three minutes per round. The three-knockdown rule will be in effect for Friday’s contest.

Should a fighter knock his opponent down three times over the course of a single round or four times in a contest, that fighter will be declared the winner and champion by way of TKO.

The Series So Far

Heading into the ONE 169 co-main event on Friday night, the all-time series between Rodtang and Smith stands at 1-0 in favor of the former. Back on May 20, 2022, Rodtang bested Smith by unanimous decision after three rounds to defend the 135-lb. title. How will chapter two play out?

ONE 169 Co-Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into the ONE 169 co-main event on Friday night, Jacob Smith stands as the taller competitor at 5-foot-7, compared to the 5-foot-6 frame of Rodtang Jitmuangnon. The challenger also owns a three-inch reach advantage (68 inches to 65 inches) over the champion.

Currently, the oddsmakers have Rodtang Jitmuangnon installed as a -500 favorite on the money line, while Jacob Smith counters as a +375 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening in MMA and/or combat sports this weekend, please wager responsibly.

Rodtang Finding Time to Get on the Pitch Ahead of ONE 169 Co-Main Event

Champion Rodtang Jitmuangnon has posted a mark of 4-1 in his last five fights. Last time out, he defeated Denis Puric (3-3 ONE Championship) in a nontitle affair via unanimous decision after three rounds.

Although he’s a combat athlete by trade, Rodtang still makes time for The Beautiful Game of soccer and has a fan: One of the greatest to ever put on a soccer kit, Lionel Messi, who sent him an Inter Miami CF kit last year.

“I’m super happy with the gift,” Rodtang said of the jersey. “Everyone who likes football dreams of getting close to Messi. Of course, I want to play soccer with him, and for sure, I would like to teach him Muay Thai.”

Rodtang will have plenty of time to take a corner kick after the ONE 169 co-main event. Will he be able to defend the 135-lb. strap once more on Friday?

Smith Taking Stock of Lessons Learned From Original Match with Rodtang

In the other corner, challenger Jacob Smith has gone 1-2 since joining ONE Championship’s active roster in May of 2022. Like Rodtang, he also faced Denis Puric in his last fight, with Smith coming up a loser by unanimous decision after three rounds back in April.

The challenger has taken stock of what happened in the first contest with the champion, adding fuel to his fire.

“I’m not going to make any more excuses about it,” Smith began. “I don’t personally think I could’ve done any more on that day. Don’t forget, this was two years ago. It was my first fight in ONE Championship. It was my first fight in four-ounce gloves. Not only was it my first fight at the highest level, it was against the most elite Muay Thai fighter you can get, so it was tough.”

Can Smith even the score against Rodtang? Only time will tell.

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

With the ONE 169 co-main event being a rematch, expect a dramatic affair on Friday night.

Rodtang Can Bring the Heat

Once Rodtang Jitmuangnon enters the ring, his objective is simple: Come out hitting. One need look no further than his rematch versus Jonathan Haggerty in 2020.

After Rodtang dropped Haggerty less than halfway through the opening round of an advertised five, he kept his foot on the gas pedal, aggressively searching for a shot to the liver and repeatedly throwing such strikes. Upon a restart in round three after an eye injury, Rodtang uncorked a barrage of shots, including one to the liver, to knock him down.

Following another restart, this time stemming from a mouthpiece being inadvertently dislodged, the onslaught continued, leading to a third knockdown before Rodtang put him away for keeps moments later. If Rodtang can answer the bell with ruthless aggression on Friday night, he’ll still have the belt around his waist at the end of the evening.

Smith Can Score the Upset

In the other corner, don’t discount Jacob Smith. He can surprise people in the ONE 169 co-main event. Just look at the tape of his fight from last year against Walter Goncalves in ONE Fight Night 17.

During the first round of a scheduled three, Smith went hunting for body shots before causing a slip with a kick to the body. As the round neared its end, he connected on a flying knee to the body to crumple Goncalves up like a piece of paper.

While the referee administered an eight-count, it was clear that Goncalves wasn’t going to rise to his feet in time. If Jacob Smith can work the body, he’ll be the new champion in the ONE 169 co-main event.

Final Thoughts

One last piece of advice before we say goodbye until next time: Get your popcorn ready for the ONE 169 main event. You may not have the time to pop it once the command to fight is given.

Prediction: Rodtang Jitmuangnon by First-Round Knockout.

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Drew Zuhosky is a combat sports writer since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.