MMASucka Staff Predictions: UFC on FOX 5

by • December 7, 2012 • News, UFCComments (0)

The Ultimate Fighting Championship have been criticized relentlessly from fans and media alike for less-than-thrilling outings on the main stage for media conglomerate FOX but this time, I think they’ve hit the perfect formula.

Sitting atop of the bill is a pair of supremely talented lightweights who vie for divisional supremacy, throw in two highly-touted prospects against former UFC champions in the biggest tests of their respective careers and for the sprinkles and topping on the top we get a main card opener that promises violence and excitement.

For a promotion criticized for watered down cards, this is about as perfect of an effort they could put forward.

The hypothetical MMASucka offices are buzzing with excitement — One staff member who will remain unnamed has not slept all week, while another spent the past few days practicing his mean mug and double bird to be just like his favorite fighter from the 209 area code.

So you know how it goes – We’ll tell you how it goes down in Seattle, you’ll disagree and send angry tweets about our mothers. Well, let’s get to it then.

UFC Lightweight Championship: Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz

Justin Faux:

If there’s a fight that screams ‘fight of the year’ potential it’s this one. Not only because we have some supremely talented lightweights who tend to do amazing things inside a fighting circle but because I see a clear path to victory for both man.

I wrote an entire breakdown for this fight [cheap plug, find it here] and I have tossed and turned on it since the moment it was announced but I am going to stick with the champion to retain because of my simple rule – When in doubt, pick the wrestler.
Benson Henderson by Unanimous Decision

Jeremy Brand:

This is a tough fight to call, as Diaz has some serious submission skills, but Henderson is like Gumby. Diaz has also shown that he has some of the most significant striking in the UFC. However, saying that I feel that Henderson will have an edge in most aspects of this fight and for that I feel he will come out of this on top.
Benson Henderson by Unanimous Decision

JP Lasaleta:

Nate Diaz is going to shock the world while he locks in a triangle choke in the second round.  Ben’s last recollection he will remember before he goes to sleep will be Diaz shouting “209 Caesar Gracie jiujitsu! Wut! wut! wut…”
Nate Diaz by second round submission

Henry Lai:

Diaz will probably want to keep this fight on the feet and make it a brawl but Henderson is no slouch in the standup department. Also, both fighters are extremely hard to finish and has gas tanks that will last beyond 5 rounds. So it comes down to Henderson’s wrestling and this is where he holds a distinct advantage. I think he’ll use it to control the fight and keep it from becoming a brawl.
Benson Henderson by Unanimous Decision

Trevor Dueck:

I love this fight. Both guys are animals and extremely hard to finish. Henderson will most likely try to confuse Diaz with some great foot work, but if Henderson isn’t careful he might realize after round one that he just took a Gatling gun of punches and has four more rounds of punishment to come. If Henderson thought Frankie Edgar was tough on the feet, he has a bucket of punches in bunches waiting for him this Saturday night. There lies the key to this fight. Henderson needs to feel Diaz out on the feet and eventually work for the take down. Although Nate is a savant on the ground, he has shown that he can be controlled by big, strong and active fighters who from the  top. Que Ben Henderson, who I think will look to ground and pound his way to a decision victory. Benson Henderson by Unanimous Decision

Sucka’s picking Henderson: 4
Sucka’s picking Diaz: 1

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua

Justin Faux:

I’ve romanticized the utter violence that ‘Shogun’ did inside the Pride Fighting Championships ring for years and will always have a soft spot in my heart for that wild Brazilian from Chute Boxe but this isn’t 2005, this isn’t Pride and Alexander Gustafsson is a tough customer.

The former UFC light-heavyweight kingpin has a chance, but after the way he looked against Brandon Vera coupled with his highly questionable gas tank I suspect that the young Swede can pick him apart on the feet but I couldn’t see him stopping him.
Alexander Gustafsson by Unanimous Decision

Jeremy Brand:

Gustafsson is being built as the future of the light heavyweight division. Many have compared him to UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones. This fight will prove whether he can stand with the big boys. “Shogun” had one of the best fights in UFC history and proved that he is very tough to finish. Gustafsson predicted on MMASucka Radio that he will finish the fight in the 2nd round and I think that could come true.
Alexander Gustafsson by second round TKO

JP Lasaleta:

After this fight, you will hear grumblings of the media and Dana saying that Shogun should retire. The Swede is going rock Rua so clean and devastating that no one will dispute who the true #1 contender to the LHW title should be.
Alexander Gustafsson by first round TKO

Henry Lai:

The Pride fanboy in me says Rua can pull this off with an epic knockout finish but the logical side in me says Gustafsson will use his reach and conditioning to pick Rua apart. Add to the fact that Gustafsson has been training with people like Phil Davis and surely, his wrestling must be improving. With that said, Gustafsson will mix it up with striking and takedowns to grind down Rua to tire out the former champ as his gas tank has been suspect in his recent fights.
Alexander Gustafsson by third round TKO

Trevor Dueck:

Do you ever wonder if Shogun Rua suffers from a Bi Polar MMA Disease? One fight you get vintage Rua, the next fight you get out of shape Rua. Maybe it’s the BJ Penn disease. Nonetheless, this has the makings for fight of the night. Shogun is extremely difficult to finish and although he is still relatively young, the MMA Miles (kilometers) are long. How much more punishment can this Brazilian take? Well, we are going to see how much as Alexander Gustafsson is going to take Shogun to the brink and try to break him. If Rua is not in great shape, he will gas, and the punishing Swede will finish him via TKO. However, something tells me we are in for a war, and I see Alex Gustafsson winning via split decision. Another loss for Rua, but another legendary fight.
Alexander Gustafsson by split decision

Sucka’s picking Gustafsson: 5
Sucka’s picking Rua: 0

BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald

Justin Faux:

I’ve said it in the past and the Rory MacDonald fan club spat out their mocachino on their Gucci suits but MacDonald is an overrated fighter at this point in his career. Yes, I think he will be a serious contender, possibly even a champion one day but the wheels haven’t completely fallen off the BJ Penn cart at this point.

I see this as pretty clear cut since we’re only going 15 minutes, BJ will fence off takedowns and use his boxing to irritate the Tristar product, I do suspect he will fade because, well, he’s BJ Penn but he should snatch the first two frames before it and I don’t see the Canadian finishing him even with his gas tank at zero.
BJ Penn by Unanimous Decision

Jeremy Brand:

BJ Penn is looking to be in the best shape of his life for this fight, but who knows where his mental game is. This will be the biggest fight of MacDonald’s career and if he pushes his way past Penn he will more than likely crack the top 5 in the Welterweight Division. It’s going to come down to who is more mentally prepared.
Rory MacDonald by Unanimous Decision

JP Lasaleta:

I’m drinking the BJ Penn Kool Aid.  An in shape, motivated BJ Penn is impossible to beat no matter how big or skilled the opponent in.
BJ Penn by first round submission

Henry Lai:

The old “Prodigy” vs the new prodigy. I give the speed and striking advantage to Penn. Also, a motivated and in-shape Penn is dangerous against anyone but MacDonald is also very talented and will use his strength and size to get this fight to the ground. As long as he can get out of the first round relatively unhurt, then he should be able to take the rest of the fight.
Rory MacDonald by Unanimous Decision

Trevor Dueck:

Everyone loves themselves a BJ. Now get your head out of the gutter. They love him because the guy will fight anyone, in any weight class and win or lose you get to see a talented guy fight his heart out. What frustrates me and others is that BJ Penn is his own worst enemy and unfortunately his legacy will be, he was a very good fighter that could have been great. Now he comes out of quasi retirement looking “toight like a tiger” you can tell by his “toight pants.” BJ is going to need a lucky punch or a barrage of punches to stop Rory MacDonald. The young Canadian prodigy is bigger, faster, and stronger and if BJ wants to win this fight he will have to do it in round one. Rory is telling people that he is going to destroy Penn and send him back to his Hawaiian hammock. I’m going to have to believe him. It will be three rounds of destruction and MacDonald’s hand will be raised once again when he wins by unanimous decision. The question is will the Penn team throw in the towel after round two.
Rory MacDonald by Unanimous Decision

Sucka’s picking MacDonald: 3
Sucka’s picking Penn: 2

Matt Brown vs. Mike Swick

Justin Faux:

Matt Brown is a fighter who’s much better than his record but I don’t see him beating Mike Swick, despite looking pretty good in recent times. Ultimately, Swick has a major guillotine-choke and Brown will windmill punches, get taken down and tapped out early to spoil Matt Browns dip into the history books as only the 10th fighter in the UFC to win four fights in a single year.
Mike Swick by first round submission

Jeremy Brand:

Another tough one to call. However, if Swick comes out of the gates and uses his speed this one could be over quick.
Mike Swick by first round submission

JP Lasaleta:

Mike Swick is back and in form.  At just the tight time, you’ll see him blitz in and over whelm Brown with his signature barrage of punches. Then, hopefully Ufc gives him back his Real Quick with Mike Swick Web show.
Mike Swick by first round TKO

Henry Lai:

This one is a very close fight. Both fighters are exciting and the fight is almost guaranteed to have fireworks. I was very impressed with Swick’s last fight as he looks to be reinvigorated. I see him coming out quick and blitzing Brown to a finish.
Mike Swick by first round TKO   

Trevor Dueck:

And it’s over. See how quick that was? ;)
Mike Swick by first round KO

Sucka’s picking Swick: 5
Sucka’s picking Brown: 0

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