Has Interest in UFC Peaked?

The preliminary pay-per-view buyrate reports have come in for UFC 136, and they aren’t pretty. Early reports place the number at around 250,000 buys, which continues the trend of lower numbers throughout 2011 and begs the question, has the interest in UFC peaked?

The UFC 136 number was the lowest PPV number for a card that contained a title fight (and 136 contained two) since the TUF boom started. The overall PPV numbers have dropped approximately 30% since last year and continue to trend downwards. While UFC is still a very profitable business, these numbers have to be unsettling for the Zuffa brass.

Part of the problem no doubt is the state of the economy. A lot of people are feeling the pinch and simply can’t afford to throw down fifty dollars for every event the UFC offers. Especially when there have been three such events in the past 30 days and two in the month before that. Being a fan of the sport is becoming a pretty pricey proposition and with more and more people having less and less disposable income, it’s not surprising that they would hold out for the marquee fights.

Which brings us to another problem, Zuffa has been snakebitten throughout 2011 when it comes to their big ticket fights. Because of injuries, the hyped showdowns of Lesnar-dos Santos, Evans-Jones, and GSP-Diaz (later Condit) have all had to be shelved and replaced with less appetizing offerings. When you are as dependent on pay-per-view as Zuffa is, having your top two headliners and your most hyped title fight fall by the wayside is going to hurt.

It’s not just the pay-per-view business that is trending downwards however. Television ratings for “The Ultimate Fighter” and “Fight Night” offerings have stagnated, although some of that falls on the shoulders of Spike TV which seemed disinterested in promoting the UFC brand even before Zuffa made the decision to leave the network. But UFC.com traffic is also on the decline, according to Quantcast and Google Trends, which could indicate an overall loss of interest in the Zuffa brand.

These issues may be symptomatic of a larger problem, which is that the pay-per-view industry itself appears to be a dying beast. UFC’s audience by and large skews younger, and this younger generation has grown up on the internet. This internet-savvy generation has a habit of finding ways around the system and with how easy it is to stream an event to your TV, it’s no small wonder that more people are willing to skip “the complete pay-per-view experience” for the events viewed as lesser cards. Boxing doesn’t share the same problem as their audience skews older and many of them have to rely on their kids to work their computer anyway.

Zuffa does seem to be aware of their current situation, and is acting accordingly. They have announced that their 2012 schedule will feature more events on free TV and less on pay-per-view, ostensibly saving those for their marquee stars. The new deal with Fox/FX may help revitalize the company, as the network has committed to heavy promotion for UFC events. The network may also freshen up the UFC Countdown shows and interviews during Fight Night events, which have seen diminishing returns in the amount of interest they generate for upcoming events.

UFC’s network television debut on November 12^th will be a good barometer of where the promotion stands in the public consciousness. If the Velasquez-dos Santos heavyweight title fight does a great number, a lot of the problems of 2011 can be explained away and Zuffa can point to broadcast TV as the future of the sport. Making UFC a mainstream brand is Dana White’s ultimate goal and he swears to anyone who will listen that the Zuffa braintrust can make it happen within the next two years. He goes as far to say that he will “die if it [doesn’t] happen”. Only time will tell if UFC will join the NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL in terms of mainstream acceptance. But November 12^th will provide a good indication of how close or how far away that is from happening; whether UFC breaks through to the next level, or is fated to remain a pay-per-view niche sport.