It’s another edition of Half-Cut picks where I make stupid choices. I never claimed to be able to read the future, but I will tell you that the fights tonight are going to be awesome. At UFC 139 I went a miserable (2-3). Maybe it was good that I had a few weeks to stew on it before UFC 140 in Toronto, Ontario. It was probably expected since I went (4-1) at UFC on FOX. Nonetheless we will rebound with a solid Half-Cut Picks for this upcoming card.
I thought it was fitting to go with an Ontario Brew for UFC 140. Not just any Ontario beer, but how about the best of what the province has to offer? My beer of choice is Mill St. Brewery’s “Tank house Ale.” To be honest, I have never tried this beer; I’m hoping to find it at a beer specialty store in Vancouver before the fights to see why it’s been voted Canadian Brewery Of The Year. In the mean time this is what the Mill St. Brewery says about their Ale.
Like traditional pale ales, Tankhouse Ale has a deep copper-red colour. We use five different malts to produce a complex malty texture. The most dominant character of our Pale Ale is the hop. The spicy Cascades are used to give an assertive hop flavour, aroma and bitterness to our ale. The result is a satisfying and complex-tasting beer. Our brewmaster developed this recipe 20 years ago and it has remained his favorite drink of choice.
Give it a try and let me know what you think. If you have any beer suggestions for UFC 141, you can reach me on Twitter or just post a comment below.
UFC 140 will go down at the Air Canada Center in Toronto, Ontario. It’s the UFC’s second foray to “The Big Smoke” this year, and the fans will not be disappointed with this card. Here are my picks. Remember if you are going to use me as a reference for your gambling endeavours, I’m sorry.
MAIN EVENT Light heavyweight Title – Jon Jones (14-1) vs. Lyoto Machida (17-2)
Machida is one of my favourite fighters to watch. Some use to deem him as boring; I saw the art behind his style. The Karate master will go head-to-head with the unstoppable force in Jon Jones. It is being billed as a true martial arts fight, whatever that means. Not much of a stretch considering it’s mixed martial arts.
Jon Jones is going to have to be patient in this fight. Machida is going to try and change angles and move in and out of range. The question is what is out of range? Jones has an advantage with his huge wing span. He is becoming an expert at using that reach to keep his opponents on the outside. Machida is going to have to pick his shots to avoid getting picked apart. I expect Jones to use his kicks like he did against “Rampage” Jackson to keep Machida at bay. It’s a strategy that worked for Shogun Rua when he took the title away from Machida and it seems to be something that could make life difficult for “The Dragon.” Look for Jones to use his unorthodox striking to set up the takedown. Once this fight goes to the ground, I see Jones taking the victory home. As much as I love “The Dragon” I don’t see how his style is going to threaten a well prepared Jones. But anything can happen in MMA and if Jones gets suckered into Lyoto’s game of elusiveness, he could get caught. I just don’t see that happening. I see Jones defending his title via TKO.
Winner: Jon Jones
Heavyweight – Frank Mir (15-5) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1)
The last time these two heavyweights faced each other was at UFC 92. Mir became the first man to stop Nogueira with a vicious TKO. Some have put an * on that fight since Nogueira entered that match up with a few injuries that included a serious case of staph infection. Whatever you think of the Mir victory, a win is a win. Nogueira gets his opportunity to avenge the loss. I don’t expect to see this fight go the same way as it did last time. Part of me wants to see these two Jiu-jitsu warriors put on a ground display. In fact that is where I think Nog has the best chance to win. To be “Frank”- Mir hasn’t looked good in his last two wins against CroCop and Roy Nelson. In fact, he has looked very flat. Some believe Mir needed a challenge and a rematch against Nogueira has seemed to be what the doctor ordered.
Look for Mir to rise to the occasion in this fight. He is going to try and keep the fight standing and test Nog’s chin again. If the fight goes to the mat I expect Mir to use his ground skills to get back up so he can continue to put the pressure on. That’s the key in this fight. Mir is going to keep after “Big Nog” and not allow him to recover from punishment. We all know Nogueira’s MO of never being out of a fight. Mir is going to try and end this quickly and Nog is going to try and test Mir’s cardio. I personally believe that Mir seems re-energized with this match up. No disrespect to Mirko Cro Cop and Roy Nelson, but this is a statement fight for Mir and I don’t see him disappointing. Of note, my MMASucka.com colleague Carlin Bardsley thinks Nog looks motivated and in great condition based on what he saw at the open workouts. But my head is taking Mir via decision
Winner: Frank Mir
Light Heavyweight – Tito Ortiz (16-9-1) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (19-5)
It’s another Nogueira brother. “Lil Nog” will test his skills against the self proclaimed “People’s Champ” in Tito Ortiz. Enjoy watching Ortiz as it looks like his career will be coming to an end sometime in 2012. He has two fights remaining on his contract and has said that he would like to retire when that contract is up. A lot of people, including myself, would love to see Ortiz take the victory in this fight. Nogueira has pretty solid takedown defence and Ortiz’s take down attempts are not what they use to be. Nogueira will look to keep the fight standing and avoid getting into the clinch game. Look for Lil Nog to throw a jab and some leg kicks. We know that Ortiz’s gas tank isn’t what it used to be. If Nogueira can throw some good combinations he can win this fight on points. Ortiz will try and get Nogueira up against the cage or to the ground and see if he can wear “Lil Nog” out. “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” is near the end of his career and I don’t see him out striking or Nogueira. It will be a tough fight for Ortiz and he will make it interesting, but I see Nogueira taking it via decision.
Winner: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Welterweight – Claude Patrick (14-1) vs. Brian Ebersole (48-14-1)
This is a tough fight for me to pick. The Canadian in me wants to go with Patrick, but I know how dangerous Ebersole is. This is going to be a close fight. Ebersole is tough to submit and even harder to knock out. I’m very hesitant to bet against Ebersole as I have been proven wrong twice. However, I think Patrick will do a better job controlling the fight and putting Ebersole in some uncomfortable positions. Patrick loves to look for a submission, but he is also very capable on his feet. This is a tough one to call so I’m going to back my fellow countryman and take Patrick via decision.
Winner: Claude Patrick
Featherweight – Mark Hominick (20-9) vs. Chan Sung Jung (11-3)
“The Korean Zombie” is an exciting fighter who can take punishment on the feet but is also very capable on the ground. The problem for Jung is that he is up against a very technical and motivated Mark “The Machine” Hominick. With the spirit of the late Shawn Tompkins and the entire Air Canada Center cheering him on, the Ontario native will be entering the Octagon looking to make a statement. As talented as Sung Jung is, he has been known to throw the game plan away when things get tough and out comes the Zombie that has made him famous. Hominick will look to frustrate Jung with crisper striking and excellent takedown defence. Jung is going to have a tough time getting close to Hominick and in return will eat a ton of punches and kicks. The statement will be made when Hominick ends the fight via TKO.
Winner: Mark Hominick
So if we were to drop down a $5 parlay bet on Bodog with the above picks, we would win a whopping $20.42. Not huge money but I’m riding the favorites tonight.
Please drink responsibly tonight and enjoy the Holiday season. Merry Christmas everyone! Next round will be at UFC 141.
Make sure to join me on Twitter @tdueckmania
-Corner Man-
Current Half-Cut Record (9-6)
