Why read other UFC predictions when you can you have a nice laugh in reading mine. At UFC 141 I went (3-2). Meh. I’ll throw out an old sports cliché, “the bounces aren’t going our way.” To be honest I don’t know too many people who were expecting Mark Hominick to lose the way he did and I think most of us can agree that Claude Patrick deserved a better fate against Ebersole. But we won’t cry over spilt milk, instead we will raise our glasses for another edition of MMASucka.com’s Half-Cut Picks for UFC 141.
Live from Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, UFC 141 gives us two large behemoths, in Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem, squaring off in a five round non-title fight. Before I get to my fight picks, here is the beer of choice for this FRIDAY’s UFC fist-a-cuffs. That’s right, I said Friday…not Saturday. It’s just a friendly reminder.
Beer of choice is Coors Light. You heard me. “That’s a Coors Light because Bud Light won’t pay me nothing.” Sorry I couldn’t resist, so in honor of Brock Lesnar and his famous UFC 100 rant, today’s beer of choice is Coors Light. I’m not going to go into the details of all the tasty features of a can of Coors Light or tell you what it goes well with. It’s Freakin’ Coors Light… it probably goes well with the untagged mule deer you just shot moments ago.
MAIN EVENT Heavyweight – Brock Lesnar (5-2) vs. Alistair Overeem (35-11)
When this fight was first announced I immediately giggled an evil girlish type of giggle and prognosticated that “somebody gonna get a hurt real bad.” – Russell Peters.
That somebody was Brock Lesnar. There was no doubt in my mind that Overeem was the huge favorite and will probably be considered the favorite all the way up to fight day. After seeing what Cain Velasquez did to Lesnar almost fourteen months ago, I thought we may have seen the kryptonite for the “the baddest man on the planet.” Just imagine what Overeeem is going to do to Lesnar, I thought.
Now I’m not so sure. Overeem is a K1 Grand Prix Champion, Strikeforce Champion, and Dream Champion. Those titles are great and I’m sure they will keep his massive pants up, but to be honest have we seen Overeem in the cage or ring with anyone in the top ten? Todd Duffee aside, to me, Brock Lesnar has to be considered Overeem’s toughest opponent in years. I kid about Todd Duffee. This could be Overeem’s biggest fight of his career. As great as his stand up is, and no matter how many times he has put an opponent to sleep with a vicious guillotine, “The Reem” has never faced a giant of a man that can move like a light heavyweight. Overeem may have some solid take down defense but he has never fought a guy with this kind of wrestling pedigree. No not even Brett Rogers.
Brock Lesnar knows what he has to do in order to win this fight. He has to maul Overeem like a grizzly bear and keep him down. Lesnar has to rain down some vicious ground and pound and make Overeem quit. Although this fight is scheduled for a five round main event, I don’t see it going past three. Every part of my being wants to take Overeem because I think his striking is too good. I want to follow the popular vote on this one. But for some reason I’m going to go with my hunch and take Lesnar via TKO in the second round. As of right now, Lesnar seems more prepared and focused. We’ll see if that translates into a win. Who wouldn’t want to see Lesnar pick up a badly beaten Overeem and throw him on his shoulders and haul him out of the back country….of….MGM Grand Garden…never mind.
Winner: Brock Lesnar
Lightweight – Donald Cerrone (17-3) vs. Nate Diaz (14-7)
Anytime you fling off the hat of a cowboy you’re asking for trouble. Anytime you choose to have a stare down with a Stockton kid, you’re in for some tomfoolery. Donald “The Cowboy” Cerrone has no problems being just as brash and full of piss and vinegar like a Diaz brother. Both Nate Diaz and Donald Cerrone have been throwing some trash talk back and forth and it has created a match up with some real hate. Nothing is better when two guys go into a fight with real emotion. The question is, who will keep that emotion in check and focus on the task at hand?
Donald Cerrone has been considered one of the best breakthrough fighters of 2011. Since his arrival into the UFC’s lightweight division, Cerrone has gone 4-0 in the UFC and a fifth win has to make him a favorite to take on the winner of the lightweight title fight between Champion Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson at UFC 144 in Japan.
This has all the makings to be fight of the night. Nate likes to mix his unorthodox style of Stockton boxing with a deadly ground game. Cerrone likes to throw down too and we could see an all out war happen within the pocket. That should make the drunk crowd happy. Although Nate’s style of boxing is unique like his big brother Nick, I can’t imagine that Diaz will be able to take too much punishment from a Muay Thai national champ in “The Cowboy.”
Cerrone is going to be too much for Diaz and will be able to dictate the pace of the fight. Diaz will look to throw punches in bunches, but it will be Cerrone’s power and kicks that will do more damage. For Diaz to win this fight he is going to have to take the fight to the ground and keep Cerrone from getting top position. In what will be an entertaining fight, I’m taking Donald Cerrone via unanimous decision.
Winner: Donald Cerrone
Welterweights – Jon Fitch (23-3-1) vs. Johny Hendricks (11-1)
Some of you are thinking that this is the “go to the bathroom fight” or “order the pizza” part of the card. But you are wrong. Although Fitch’s style is not pretty and he is considered by many to be one of the most boring fighters in the game, you have to admire that he just keeps winning. To me, Fitch is the second best welterweight in the world, next to UFC champ, George St. Pierre. However, he has a tough test in the highly decorated wrestler in Johny Hendricks. The Oklahoma native has shown that he is not content on being one dimensional. He is 6-1 in the UFC and three of those wins have been by technical knock out. Hendrick’s will want to make sure that he can use his superior wrestling to keep Fitch from taking him down. Instead Hendricks should test Fitch’s stand up game. It’s not like either of these guys are the second coming of Muhammad Ali, but I really do think that Hendricks best chance to winning this fight is keeping the fight standing.
This is a tough fight to pick a winner. I think the wrestling of Hendrick’s could take a big part of Fitch’s game away. Fitch likes to grind guys out on the ground. If Hendricks can keep the fight standing he may have a better chance of winning. Styles make fights and as physically strong as Fitch is, I see Hendricks neutralizing the wrestling and winning on landing some valuable stand up points for an upset decision victory. It’s a risky pick, but this edition of Half-Cut seems to be about hunches. Maybe it’s something in the water, no wait…that’s my Coors light.
Winner: Johny Hendricks
Light Heavyweight – Vladimir Matyushenko (26-5) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (12-1)
This is “The Janitor” versus the up and coming Swede. Both fighters are coming off impressive wins with Matyushenko disposing of Jason Brilz via KO at UFC 129 and Gustafsson pounding out Matt Hamill at UFC 133. Just imagine if your old school janitor was Matyushenko, it would make you think twice of streaking the floors now wouldn’t it?
To me Gustafsson is the more dangerous fighter. He possesses a stronger stand up game and isn’t afraid to go to the ground either. For Matyushenko to win this fight he is going to have to try and control the fight on the mat. It won’t be an easy task to keep the lanky Swede down, but it maybe Matyushenko’s only hope of winning the fight. Gustafsson is a risk taker and will sometimes put himself in harm’s way on the ground to find a dominant position. This is where Matyushenko will have to try and find an opening.
Unfortunately I think Gustafsson will be too much for the Belarusian and will pick “The Janitor” a part on the feet. Look for Gustafsson to drop Matyushenko in the first round and win via KO/TKO. Poor janitor.
Winner: Alexander Gustafsson
Featherweight – Nam Phan (17-9) vs. Jim Hettes (9-0)
This is a tough fight to make a call on. You have the great Jiu-Jitsu practitioner in Jim Hettes against the solid stand up skills of Nam Phan. In my humble opinion experience comes to play here. Hettes has never been out of the second round and has won all nine of his fights via submission. Phan has a granite chin and does have some solid all round skills, but it will be his fast hands that could wear on the Pennsylvania native. I think Phan will show some good takedown defense and will be able to keep Hettes on the outside. This is where Phan will be able to pick him apart with a solid straight jab. I’m taking Phan via decision. Probably another stupid pick and I will most likely curse the name Hettes in the end. I will Damn him to hell.
Winner: Nam Phan
Well there you go. If you were to go to Bodog and put down a parlay bet on my above picks (which I recommend you don’t) $5 could get you $75.97 – Not too shabby.
Please drink responsibly tonight and enjoy New Years Eve tomorrow. Happy New Year everyone! 2012 will be your last year on earth so make it count. Next round will be at UFC 142.
Make sure to join me on Twitter @tdueckmania
-Corner Man-
Current Half-Cut Record (12-8)
Related Posts:
