Saturday night’s UFC 156 event is going to be a fantastic card, but it seems that one fight in particular has fallen a little under the radar even though it could be a fight that creates a legitimate new title contender in the UFC’s 170lb weight class.
While most of the focus for the event thus far has been on Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar, Alistair Overeem vs. Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, and Rashad Evans vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, the welterweight bout between Jon Fitch and Demian Maia hasn’t been getting the buzz it deserves considering that, if Maia wins, UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre will have another challenger on his docket.
Maia was one of the top guys at 185lbs, but we saw in his UFC 112 bout against Anderson Silva that he never had a real shot of claiming the UFC middleweight crown. At 170lbs, though, he has a real shot at winning a UFC title because of the way he matches up with St-Pierre.
We all know that Maia is a BJJ wiz — he started his UFC career with five-straight submission victories, and won four “Submission of the Night” awards in the process — but for unknown reasons at some point he went away from his BJJ and turned into a striker, and it cost him dearly. After that five-fight win streak, you see, he proceeded to lost four of his next eight bouts, including a listless loss to Chris Weidman at UFC on FOX 2 that convinced him he needed to make the drop down to the welterweight division.
And it’s looking like a good choice.
Since making the drop to 170lbs, Maia is 2-0 with a TKO win over Dong Hyun Kim at UFC 148 and a “Submission of the Year” candidate over Rick Story at UFC 153, when he cranked Story’s neck so badly that blood started squiring out of his nose. As of late Maia has looked like that beast of old who entered the UFC and took guys down right off the bat and proceeded to look for the submission immediately, not the guy who chose to stand with Weidman, Mark Munoz and Silva. And that’s only a good thing.
In a way, Maia’s career progression is kind of similar to Gabriel Gonzaga who, after knocking out Mirko Cro Cop with a miracle head kick at UFC 70, started to stand and bang with his opponents even though he always had the advantage on the ground. Gonzaga then started to get knocked out on a consistent basis and the UFC decided to sever ties with him, but after picking up a submission victory on the regional circuit and earning his way back into the UFC, Gonzaga has since gone back to his ground roots and has won both his fights by submission, looking like a serious threat again in the heavyweight division.
Unlike Gonzaga, though, Maia has the benefit of dropping down a weight class and getting a completely fresh start. Sure, his 9-4 record at middleweight was solid, but solid’s not good enough when the end goal is to win a UFC world title. Now it’s like Maia’s an undefeated 2-0 in his career, and he has a real chance to be a threat to St-Pierre if he shines this weekend against Fitch.
Of course St-Pierre is a better fighter than Maia. He’s more well rounded, he’s a better striker, and his wrestling is better. But if St-Pierre’s gameplan is to take Maia down to the floor like he does with many of his other opponents, it could spell trouble since Maia can literally submit anyone in the world at any time from any position. But before he can even think about fighting St-Pierre, he must get through Fitch first and this fight is no gimme.
Fitch is one of the top grinders in the sport, a smothering wrestler who sticks to his foes like glue and who throws a bevy of ground strikes that add up over time. He’s been nearly unbeatable in the UFC, save for a loss to St-Pierre (who hasn’t lost to him though?) at UFC 87 and a one-punch KO loss to Johny Hendricks at UFC 141. Maybe consider him to be nearly unchokeable, but if anyone is going to submit Fitch it’s definitely Maia.
With Fitch being one of the top-five welterweights in the world for basically the past decade, a win by Maia over him would be massive. It would be the victory that really cements Maia’s place as a welterweight title contender, and it would be a victory that will gain him a ton of respect from both the fans and from the UFC brass because everyone knows how difficult it is to beat Fitch. If Maia beats Fitch, we’ll know he’s the real deal at welterweight.
Maia has a golden opportunity on his hands this weekend: Beat Fitch, and he’s one more win away from a welterweight title shot. But to lose? Well, let’s just say the odds of the 35-year old ever getting close to a title shot again are slim if he loses this weekend.
The pressure’s on.
