Allen: We have finally reached the point, where the stacked UFC pay-per-view cards have arrived. This is the UFC 166 preview, which is an excellent card from top to bottom. The preliminary portion of the card is filled with popular fighters that can finish fights in one punch. The fact that Hector Lombard, Sarah Kaufman, and Tim Boetsch are on the prelims shows how good this card is.
Unfortunately this is just a five-question preview article and we have to cover the main card fights. I’m joined by Justin Pierrot to discuss each main card fight. Justin is known for his great work, especially breaking down the main events for each UFC show known as “stats for suckas”. He was extremely busy this week, so he’ll have brief responses about each question.
Preview: Five questions for UFC 166
1. Darrell Montague is making his debut in the UFC and couldn’t have gotten a tougher challenge in the flyweight division. How do you like his odds against John Dodson?
Allen: I’m not sure how this matchup came about, but it goes to show you that there aren’t any easy fights in the UFC. Dodson is arguably the quickest flyweight that hits harder than anyone in the division. Montague needs to avoid getting into many striking exchanges with Dodson. Everyone knows about Dodson’s power and that you have to take the fight to the ground against him.
Montague is a decent wrestler, who has five submission victories to his name. If he can control Dodson on the ground and not be reckless on his feet, he could pull off the upset. His odds don’t look promising going up against someone, who is very strong and doesn’t allow his opponents to get clear angles to take him down. I’m sure that Dodson has worked on his wrestling following his loss to Demetrious Johnson. It will take fifteen minutes of non-stop pace and control for Montague to win.
Justin: It’s hard to think that Montague will have an easy time. Dodson may be unlikeable, but he’s extremely fast and powerful. I also place him third in the division, so don’t expect “The Mongoose” to come out of this on top.
2. When it comes to fighting athletic heavyweights, Gabriel Gonzaga tends to struggle. We’ve seen in fights against Travis Browne and Brendan Schaub that he doesn’t respond well to constant pressure. Shawn Jordan fits that mold, when you watch him fight. Can Gonzaga withstand the constant pressure and continue to revitalize his career?
Allen: Gonzaga seems to lack the explosiveness that he had when he was younger. I’ve noticed that he comes into fights much slower and seems to be too hesitant. Some people may disagree because he knocked out Dave Herman in 17 seconds. Herman was reckless and couldn’t have left himself more open. With Shawn Jordan, you have a fight who is always be aggressive and has shown how quickly he can end fights. For a fighter his size, he moves surprisingly well and is one of the more athletic heavyweights in the division.
Gonzaga should try to take the fight to the ground, but he’s looked to stand and bang in recent fights. Other than submitting Ben Rothwell and Ednaldo Oliveira, Gonzaga hasn’t submitted anyone in recent fights. He’ll need to try to get back to that, where he’ll have the major edge on the ground. Jordan has shown how ruthless he can be on his feet and never seems to fatigue. I don’t like Gonzaga’s odds because Jordan is big and continues to evolve as a striker. It’s unlikely that Gonzaga can overpower Jordan, let alone submit him.
Justin: Some tendencies just don’t go away once you’ve passed the age of 30. One of those is wilting under constant pressure. Expect Jordan to continue his surge, unless Gabe hits another wild, out of nowhere head kick.
3. Can Diego Sanchez hang with Gilbert Melendez for three rounds? This will likely be fight of the night, but it seems to be a bit of a mis-match with Melendez being better at almost every aspect of the fight.
Allen: Sanchez will always have two elements that can never be taken away from him. His cardio is outstanding and has the best chin in the lightweight division. He can last three rounds, but his skills aren’t on par with Melendez. I’ve always questioned Sanchez, when it comes to the lack of precision striking and becoming too oriented with throwing wild haymakers.
Melendez’s boxing has always been precise and he makes every punch count, which is why you never see him tire out. Sanchez might have a slight edge in grappling even though Melendez has improved his takedown defense greatly. There isn’t a lightweight more well rounded than Melendez and he’ll prove that on Saturday. Sanchez has the power to pull off the upset, but there are simply no weaknesses in Melendez’s game. He won’t get caught and he’ll outwork Sanchez for three rounds.
Justin: I feel like I’m giving a negative answer to all the questions so far, but I simply don’t think Sanchez can hang. Sanchez should retire actually, and sign on as a coach/motivational speaker at Jackson’s. Melendez is really everything that Sanchez was except amped up by a factor of ten and I expect him to pretty much cruise to victory.
4. Does an in-shape Roy Nelson pose the biggest threat to Daniel Cormier’s undefeated record? A recent picture has surfaced around and showed Nelson looking much slimmer.
Allen: This fight has dud written all over it, when it was announced. Despite the trash talk, my vision for the fight would be Cormier all over Nelson taking him down, without having any interest in striking. Now my interest is back based on Nelson looking fit for the first time in his career in a recent photo. A slimmer Nelson has me optimistic that he can hang with Cormier’s constant pace and try to keep the fight standing for his advantage. Cormier will likely land some takedowns, but Nelson’s cardio should be much better than it was in the past and won’t let Cormier dictate the fight for fifteen straight minutes.
Everyone knows about Nelson’s overhand right; yet people forget that he possess a dangerous right uppercut. While he’s very dangerous on the feet, I wouldn’t consider this Cormier’s biggest threat. Josh Barnett is very well rounded and posed the most threatening matchup for Cormier’s style. The issue with Nelson is that he can get reckless and too predictable, which would play into Cormier’s game plan of taking him down and smothering him.
Nelson slimming down can only be positive, but Cormier moves like a light heavyweight (hence why he’s moving down) and has proven to outwork all of his opponents. His best hope will be to catch Cormier and finish the fight early. Regardless of where the fight goes, it’s great to see him taking his career more seriously and we don’t have to fear for a repeat of his fight with Frank Mir. Who can forget Mir constantly taking him down, while Nelson was completely out of shape? It’s nearly impossible to out work Cormier, but you got to give Nelson more of a shot now compared to a month ago.
Justin: Whether he’s in-shape or not, Roy Nelson is always a threat to those who don’t study him. However, I have a hard time believing that his change of mass and appearance is going to lead to a change in tactics. Nelson may be the most successful sufferer of Jorge Gurgel Syndrome (where high level grapplers turn into mediocre strikers), but his reliance on the overhand right will not be his friend here. Expect Cormier to take him down and bludgeon him, until to the ref shows mercy.
5. What would you consider Junior Dos Santos’ bigger weakness? Would it be his takedown defense or cardio?
Allen: I’ve always said that one fight doesn’t make the fighter. MMA fans tend to have that issue, when analyzing a fighter’s skillset. That is the case for Dos Santos’ takedown defense, after Velasquez took him down on a consistent basis in their last fight. That’s a silly assumption when Dos Santos’ takedown defense is at 74 percent, which is a good number for a heavyweight. He withstood almost all of the takedown attempts between his fights against Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin. Even when Carwin got him down once, Dos Santos is so explosive that he simply uses his hips to shake away and was able to get back to the separation he desired.
The only semi weakness for Dos Santos has to be his cardio. It’s not a complete liability, but you cardio needs to be there for 25 minutes when going up against Velasquez. Everyone knows how good his cardio is and how he moves like a welterweight. I’ve noticed in Dos Santos’ fights with Mark Hunt and Carwin, that he looked fatigued near the end. Some people may say that he was wary of their knockout power, but you can see him taking deep breaths as the fight went on.
As for the last fight with Velasquez, it was reported that he over trained and didn’t feel right. We’ll have to see on Saturday to see if his cardio has improved, despite my hatred for using that term. There is no explanation in determining how Dos Santos will do, if the fight goes into the third round let alone the championship rounds.
There aren’t many weaknesses between both fighters. If Dos Santos can utilize his jab frequently, it makes it even harder to find a good angle to successfully take him down. I’m not sure what’s more of a myth between Velasquez hitting like a girl or Dos Santos having poor takedown defense. His cardio is the only thing that should be questioned.
Justin: If I had to choose between the two, I’d say his cardio, at least for this fight. I’m sure “Cigano” has worked on his takedown defense since his last bout with Velasquez. I don’t think there’s any possible way for his stamina to have caught up to the level that one needs to go five rounds with the current heavyweight champ.
Allen: The difference in this main card from past cards will be that every fight will have an impact in the division as a whole. The issue with the past few pay-per-view events was that it featured fighters that weren’t anywhere near the top ten. I’m far from obsessed with the rankings, but it was clear that there were fights on the past few pay-per-view cards that were just thrown together.
Almost every fight on the main card features a fighter that is close to earning a title shot. From John Dodson to Gilbert Melendez to Daniel Cormier, it’s crucial for them to earn a win here. It’ll likely mean that they are one win away from earning a title shot. You can say the same thing for Roy Nelson, if he can pull off the upset against Cormier. UFC 166 feels special and I’m positive that it’ll deliver some memorable moments.
You can follow Justin and I at @stormlandbrand & @Allen_Strk . Also be sure to follow @MMASucka for all updates and news.
