Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC on FOX 10: Benson Henderson vs Josh Thomson.

Stats for Suckas: Benson Henderson vs Josh Thomson

Statistics	Benson Henderson	Josh Thomson
Age	30	35
Camp	MMA Lab	American Kickboxing Academy
Record	19-3	20-5, 1 N/C
Stance	Southpaw	Orthodox
Reach	70.0″	71.0″
Win Percentage	2 (T)KOs (11%) 8 Submissions (42%) 9 Decisions (47%)	5 (T)KOs (25%) 9 Submissions (45%) 6 Decisions (30%)
Loss Percentage	2 Submissions (67%) 1 Decision (33%)	1 (T)KO (20%) 4 Decisions (80%)
Last (T)KO Victory	Apr. 5th, 2009, over Shane Roller	Apr. 20th, 2013, over Nate Diaz
Last Submission Victory	Apr. 24th, 2010, over Donald Cerrone	Jun3 26th, 2010, over Pat Healy
Last Decision Victory	Apr. 20th, 2013, over Gilbert Melendez	Mar. 3rd, 2012, over K.J. Noons
Last (T)KO Loss	N/A	Aug. 21st, 2004, to Yves Edwards
Last Submission Loss	Aug. 31st, 2013, to Anthony Pettis	N/A
Last Decision Loss	Dec. 16th, 2010, to Anthony Pettis	May 19th, 2012, to Gilbert Melendez
Submission Victories by Method	Guillotine 4x (50%) RNC 2x (25%) Punches 2x (25%)	RNC 2x (22%) Triangle 2x (22%) Guillotine 1x (11%) Armbar 1x (11%) Arm Triangle 1x (11%) Kneebar 1x (11%) Elbows 1x (11%)
Submission Losses by method	Armbar 1x (50%) Anaconda (50%)	N/A
Most submissions escaped in a fight	9	3
Most submissions attempted in a fight	3	6
Decision Victories in the UFC	7	1
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.89	2.5
Striking Accuracy	44%	48%
Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute	1.57	1.83
Striking Defense	66%	68%
Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min.	2.77	1.7
Takedown Accuracy	47%	41%
Takedown Defense Percentage	65%	55%
Average Submission per 15 Min.	0.88	1.41
Average Submission Completion Rate	36.87%	30.78%
Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight	124, on Dec. 8th, 2012, against Nate Diaz	100, on June 27th, 2008, against Gilbert Melendez
Total Fight Time	4 hrs, 37 min, 24 sec	4 hrs, 36 min, 29 sec

This is actually a really tough fight to pick. As you can see, both men are fairly equal, statistically. Even their total fight time is close to even. The only real major difference I see is that Thomson has a more diverse submission game than Henderson.

Benson Henderson is about as well-rounded as they come. The only thing really missing from his game is serious knock-out power, which is surprising given his propensity for kicks and the sheer size of his legs. Look at him: “Smooth’s” got the legs of a welterweight on the body of a lightweight, that’s how out of proportion they are to the rest of his frame. I only half-kid, but his athleticism combined with his Gumby-esque ability to escape almost any submission make him a tough out for anybody not named Anthony Pettis. Still, he’s coming into this bout off a loss, so it’s hard to predict just what his mindset will be.

Josh Thomson, on the other hand, is coming off a TKO finish of one Mr. Nathan Diaz. That’s the same Diaz brother that Henderson – and many others, admittedly – was not able to finish. He has more of an ability to finish with his striking than Henderson, and has a more diverse submission game. However, he’s shown to have trouble with strong wrestlers in the past. That won’t serve him well against “Bendo,” as the former UFC Lightweight champ is no slouch in that department.

It’s really tough to get a read on this bout, so the best I can do is go with my gut and say that Henderson will take this by decision.