The UFC deserve kudos for putting together a solid card under difficult circumstances. Remember when Chris Weidman was supposed to face Vitor Belfort? How about when he was supposed to face Lyoto Machida, after TRT was banned and forced Belfort from competing? You can’t forget the fascinating heavyweight matchup between Junior Dos Santos vs. Stipe Miocic. Those three high-profile bouts were announced for this event at some point. UFC 173 has been ravaged by injuries, yet the big three fights are stockpiled of exciting fighters.
TJ Dillashaw will be thrown into the fray against arguably one of the top three fighters in the world in Renan Barao. We’ve yet to see any bantamweight truly threaten Barao so far in his UFC career. We’ve been also waiting to see if Team Alpha Male can win a championship. Urijah Faber and Chad Mendes have failed against the champions from Nova Uniao. There are plenty of subplots in this title fight. Also it can’t be forgotten that the 2013 coach of the year Duane Ludwig will be coaching for the last time. Can he go out on top by helping Team Alpha Male bring a championship home?
I’m joined by Justin Pierrot, who will be covering the entire main card with me.
1. James Krause’s reach is at 75 inches. Can Jamie Varner close the distance efficiently or will he struggle and be forced to stand-and-trade?
Strk: Krause knows how to use his range well, although he’s not particularly fast. While many people consider Varner to be on the decline, he still moves at a rapid pace. He was picking Abel Trujillo apart through most of the fight. A freak knockout occurred and he was on the receiving end. I’m sure that Varner will tighten up his stance, even though Krause doesn’t seem to hit particularly hard. The dangerous aspect of Krause’s arsenal is how to utilize kicks from a variety of different angles. His style is somewhat reminiscent of Carlos Condit.
What is also reminiscent from Condit’s style is that Krause can be too unpredictable for his own good. In his fight with Sam Stout, he tried throwing a spinning back elbow, flying knee, and other unorthodox strikes putting himself in precarious positions. At least for Condit’s sake, he has one of the best guards in MMA and can get himself out of predicaments. I’m not sure if Krause is capable of that just yet. If he wasn’t fighting a kick boxer in Stout, he could have very well been on his back several times in that fight. I’m expecting Varner to be able to close the distance, although he’ll have to be wary of Krause’s sharp jab. He applied that well in his victory over Stout.
Pierrot: I’m going to say, “not likely”. Varner has hit what I’ve seen discussed as “The MMA Lab Wall:” That is, the limit at just how much better he’s going to get at that particular gym. Whether his wins over Edison Barboza and Melvin Guillard were flukes or not, his losses to Joe Lauzon, Gleison Tibau, and Abel Trujillo speak to his place in the UFC’s lightweight division.
Krause is a lengthier fighter than Varner, and has the grappling skills to give him fits even if he does get in close. “C-4” will likely be forced to stand and trade, and that will likely not bode well for him here.
2. Takeya Mizugaki has quietly gone on a four fight-winning streak. What has impressed you the most throughout his winning streak? He still doesn’t seem to garner the respect that he deserves.
Strk: His ability to change levels has always impressed me. He did an excellent job in coming back to defeat an accomplished wrestler in Brian Caraway. Then he out struck a rising star that has fast hands in Erik Perez. He constantly mixes his strikes up and doesn’t rely on one aspect of striking. His striking is also very crisp, which is something you don’t see always see in the bantamweight division.
He’s facing a major challenge against Francisco Rivera, who has excellent timing and power with his boxing. His knockouts of Roland Delorme and George Roop showcased that. It will eventually come down to who dictates the pace of the fight. Mizugaki has done that during his winning streak, although he has yet to face someone as dangerous as Rivera. He’ll have to avoid getting into a brawl and constantly moving to avoid Rivera’s power combinations.
Pierrot: Mizugaki will always be underrated by judges and mainstream fans simply because he’s a grinder, and Japanese. Sadly, North American fans will likely never appreciate his style and they make less of an effort to connect with him because he doesn’t speak predominately in English.
It’s a sad reality, but it is what it is. As far as what’s been impressive? It’s the consistency of Mizugaki’s streak that has me liking his chances again. He’s finally putting things together enough to do more than alternate wins and losses in the UFC, and that will bode well for his future if he continues to beat these steps up in competition.
3. Are you concerned that Robbie Lawler is taking a fight again so soon? Jake Ellenberger speed, power, and wrestling could prove to be detrimental for his momentum.
Strk: While he’s a true veteran of the sport, I’m still going to question Lawler’s judgment of taking a fight after being in a five round battle just two months ago. He didn’t sustain any injuries, but it still had to take a toll on him. For him to jump into camp almost immediately after the fight is unbelievable.
I wrote a piece on Monday how Ellenberger is a difficult matchup for him. If you want to look at generalities, you know Ellenberger will be fired up coming back from a ten-month layoff. Not to mention, he’s coming off an abysmal performance against Rory MacDonald. When you look at his speed, ability to put together rapid one-two combinations, and to complete a double-leg in an instant. Ellenberger is more well-rounded than any of Lawler’s past opponents as a welterweight. It’ll be interesting to see how Lawler handles someone, who has a clear speed advantage on him. He could be regretting coming back so soon from such a monumental fight.
Pierrot: Of course I’m concerned about Robbie Lawler taking this fight too soon after his war with Johny Hendricks. Any decent person should be. However, Lawler is something of a human buzzsaw. He will not stop until his motor is destroyed. I do, however, like his chances against Jake Ellenberger.
Stylistically, there isn’t anything “The Juggernaut” can do that is really all that different from the current UFC welterweight champ. He’s a bit more active in the clinch in terms of variety of strikes, but I’d say that’s it. Robbie Lawler 2.0 should be able to deal with him nicely.
4. The mismatch in the co-main event couldn’t be more evident. Besides landing the signature H-Bomb, is there any other way Dan Henderson can defeat Daniel Cormier?
Strk: If anyone can figure out any other way, I’d love to hear a five-minute explanation. I’ll always be appreciative of how Henderson always charges forward. There will never be a fight, where you have to question his will or desire. Even if he’s missing wildly like he was against Lyoto Machida or getting dropped twice by Shogun Rua, you know you are going to see a fight. You’ll get your money’s worth from a Henderson fight on most occasions.
This fight is beyond a mismatch though. Cormier’s speed, explosiveness, and wrestling will overwhelm him. We’ve also seen Henderson’s head movement starting to decline. On too many occasions, he just allowed himself to get hit by Shogun. His chin isn’t what it once was and he was even taken down by Shogun on a few occasions. Cormier is simply an absolute freak that has excellent cardio and will continuously pressure his opponents. He’ll do it to the point where they can’t muster up much of an attack. Unless Henderson hits him with that legendary right hand, it’ll be time for Jon Jones or Alexander Gustafsson to start “embracing the grind” in 2015.
Pierrot: The H-Bomb” and heart are pretty much the only things Dan Henderson has shown us in the latter stages of his career. For as lauded a wrestler as he is and make no mistake, his wrestling credentials are legit. He just hasn’t been able to make that translate into MMA. Even a shot “Shogun” Rua’s been able to take him down.
Contrast this with Daniel Cormier, who’s shown punching power and an ability to bring his top-notch wrestling game with him into MMA, and combined it with speed and fluidity. Unless “DC’s” fight IQ takes a nosedive in this fight, there’s a good chance he takes Henderson down off an early “H-Bomb” attempt and pounds him out for the win
5. Renan Barao seems to be an unstoppable enigma at the moment. If you are Duane Ludwig, what is your game plan for T.J. Dillashaw to try to pull to off the monumental upset?
Strk: Dillashaw’s striking has evolved by substantial proportions under the coaching of Duane Ludwig. He put on a striking exhibition against Mike Easton, especially when utilizing a variety of different kicks to break him down. I’m still hard pressed to believe that he can stand-and-trade with Barao and be effective. Dillashaw may be very technical, but he lacks the explosiveness and versatility of Barao.
My game plan would be to try to smother Barao, but Dillashaw is in a different breed compared to other Team Alpha Male fighters. He doesn’t really use his wrestling much to his advantage, nor have we seen much of his grappling. I’m not sure what exactly Dillashaw can do other than try to pick him apart. That’s his main strength and that’s what you have to focus on when facing such a well-rounded fighter like Barao. I’d also advise Dillashaw to try to force him against the cage and take control of the center of the octagon. That is always critical when facing strikers, who emphasize on leg kicks. Barao consistently uses it, which is why Dillashaw needs to control the center and not allow him to wind up those nasty leg kicks.
Pierrot: Well, considering that Renan Barao, when you look at him objectively . He really is one of the top three pound for pound fighters active in the UFC, it’s a tough call. His one glaring weakness is that he keeps his hands low and can be suckered into a brawl. You have to exploit that if you’re going to beat him.
