Rob Font and Jose Aldo will face off with a potential bantamweight title shot on the line when the UFC returns this weekend. Here are the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Saturday December 4th, 2021 10:00pm ET (ESPN+)
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Line: Rob Font (-145) and Jose Aldo (+125); Over 4.5 rounds (-150) and Under 4.5 rounds (+120); odds from Draftkings sportsbook.
Rob Font is considered to be one of the better boxers in his division but faces what could be his biggest step up in competition in the organization so far when he enters the Octagon this Saturday.
Despite perception otherwise, Font, at 34 years of age, is only a year younger than Aldo and has an inch height and reach advantage, averaging 5.58 significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) with a 43 percent striking accuracy, 3.57 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 61 percent striking defense, 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 40 percent takedown accuracy, 53 percent takedown defense and 0.6 submissions per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats.
Font has four wins in his last five fights, with victories over Cody Garbrandt (UD, 2021), Marlon Moraes (Round 1 TKO, 2020), Ricky Simon (UD, 2019), Sergio Pettis (UD, 2018) and a loss to Raphael Assuncao (UD, 2018).
Jose Aldo “Junior” is a legend of the sport, former UFC featherweight champion and future Hall of Famer who is positioned for one more UFC title shot if he can get past Rob Font this weekend.
Aldo averages 3.63 strikes (significant) landed per minute (SLpM) with a 45 percent striking accuracy, 3.59 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 61 percent striking defense, 0.55 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 56 percent takedown accuracy, 91 percent takedown defense and 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats.
Aldo has won two straight over Pedro Munhoz (UD, 2021) and Marlon Vera (UD, 2020), having dropped the three prior to Petr Yan (TKO Rd5, 2020), Marlon Moraes (SD, 2020) and Alexander Volkanovski (UD, 2019).
Rob Font vs. Jose Aldo Narratives
Popular narratives heading into this contest include the perception that Font is the longer, more skilled boxer with higher volume, less wear and tear, and better cardio that will become more evident over a five-round fight against a “washed” Aldo.
On the other side of the cage, Aldo has the significant experience advantage, has fought the better competition and more well-rounded overall MMA skills and athletic ability with higher level kicks, body shots and ground game than Font.
Rob Font vs. Jose Aldo Prediction
This sets up to be a very close contest between two fairly evenly matched fighters, and this perception was reflected in the opening line which was nearly a pick ’em with Font at (-115) and Aldo at (-105). However, it appears public perception or money has come in on Font to steam the line to its current position and Aldo is now considered undervalued.
Over the course of his decade long UFC career, Aldo has only been finished by the highest level competitors in Petr Yan, Max Holloway and Conor McGregor, and even with Font’s high volume striking, do not expect him to finish Aldo in this contest.
Font has not faced the same quality of opponents as Aldo, but he has only been finished once in the UFC by submission, and given that Aldo has all but abandoned the ground game recently, do not anticipate Aldo finishing Font and see the main event going the distance.
With the over 4.5 rounds being juiced (-150), the value resides on taking Aldo’s experience against the highest level of competition and more versatile arsenal, including ground game, counterpunching, body strikes, and kicks to batter Font’s heavy lead leg and body in a decision win.
Pick: Jose Aldo +125
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