Two heavyweights ranked in the top 10 will attempt to prove they still belong in the discussion of division contenders when Chris Daukaus faces Curtis Blaydes in the main event of UFC Fight Night 205. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Saturday, March 26, 2022 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT (ESPN+)
- Where: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio
- Line: Chris Daukaus (+300) and Curtis Blaydes (-400); Over 1.5 rounds (-185) and Under 1.5 rounds (+150); Daukaus wins inside the distance (+380) and Blaydes wins inside the distance (-125); Daukaus wins by decision (+1400) and Blaydes wins by decision (+250); odds from Draftkings Sportsbook.
Chris Daukaus
Chris Daukaus will attempt to bounce back from his first UFC loss, making the turnaround to fight again less than three months since getting violently starched by Derrick Lewis in December.
Daukaus averages 7.71 significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) with a 53 percent striking accuracy, 3.51 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 61 percent striking defense, and has never been to the ground in his UFC career, according to UFC Stats.
Daukaus has four wins and a loss in the UFC including wins over Shamil Abdurakhimov (TKO Rd2, 2021), Aleksei Oleinik (TKO Rd1, 2020), Rodrigo Nascimento (TKO Rd1, 2020), and Parker Porter (TKO Rd1 ,2020), and the loss to Lewis (TKO Rd1, 2021).
Curtis Blaydes
Curtis “Razor” Blaydes had been trending toward a title shot before he got slept by the Lewis a little over a year ago. At 31 years old and coming off of a victory over a top-10 opponent, Blaydes appears to be working toward another potential opportunity at UFC gold.
Blaydes is two years younger, an inch taller with a four-inch reach advantage over Daukaus, averaging 3.44 significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) with a 51 percent striking accuracy, 1.65 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 59 percent striking defense, 6.27 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 53 percent takedown accuracy, 53 percent takedown defense and 0.0 submissions per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats.
Blaydes has won four of his last five contests in the UFC including victories over Jairzinho Rozenstruik (UD, 2021), Alexander Volkov (UD, 2020), Junior Dos Santos (TKO Rd2, 2020) and Shamil Abdurakhimov (TKO Rd2, 2020), and a loss to Lewis (KO Rd2, 2021).
Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus Narratives
Narratives heading into this main event include the perception that Blaydes is too experienced, big, and strong with wrestling ability that will yield very few opportunities to score for Daukaus.
Questions about Daukaus’ size and chin have emerged since getting exposed by Derrick Lewis, and few believe that Daukaus has the power to knock out Blaydes as Lewis and Francis Ngannou have. If a knockout is Daukaus’ single path to victory, then the former police officer from Philadelphia has very little chance to win this fight, a perspective that may be reflected in the wide line.
Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus Prediction
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Maintaining the approach of placing a higher value on dominant grappling over dominant striking in MMA handicapping, anticipate Blaydes to control Daukaus for most of the fight. The line is too wide to bet straight up and better value might be found in the props.
Blaydes has only lost to Ngannou and Lewis in the UFC, and he has beaten much more proven competition than Daukaus. Expect Blaydes’s size, power, and cardio will be too much for Daukaus over the course of five rounds and will ultimately lead to a ground and pound finish.
Pick: Blaydes inside the distance (-125)
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