Two of the toughest bantamweights in the top-10 of the division will clash for five rounds when Rob Font faces Marlon Vera in the main event of UFC Vegas 53. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Saturday, April 30th, 2022, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Line: Rob Font (-130) and Marlon Vera (+110); Over 4.5 rounds (-160) and Under 4.5 rounds (+130); odds from Draftkings Sportsbook.
Rob Font is considered one of, if not the best, boxers in the division. His only losses in the organization have come against top Brazilian competition. But will his boxing be enough to continue the winning streak over non-Brazilians against Ecuador’s best fighter in Vera?
Font has a 1-inch reach advantage over Vera, averaging 5.64 significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) with a 44 percent striking accuracy, 3.55 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 59 percent striking defense, 1.10 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 36 percent takedown accuracy, 55 percent takedown defense and 0.5 submissions per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats.
Font has one loss in his last five to Jose Aldo (UD, 2021). He holds wins over Cody Garbrandt (UD, 2021), Marlon Moraes (TKO Rd1, 2020), Ricky Simon (UD, 2019) and Sergio Pettis (UD, 2018).
Marlon “Chito” Vera has developed and grown as a fighter since losing his first UFC contest in 2014, having never been finished in the organization despite his activity and long tenure against increasingly higher-level competition. He avenged a unanimous decision loss to Davey Grant from 2016 in a convincing fashion in 2021.
Vera at 29 years of age is five years younger than Font. He averages 4.08 significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) with a 51 percent striking accuracy, 4.27 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 50 percent striking defense, 0.82 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 42 percent takedown accuracy, 69 percent takedown defense and 1.3 submissions per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats.
Vera has three wins and two defeats in his last five contests, including wins over Frankie Edgar (TKO Rd3, 2021), Grant (UD, 2021) and Sean O’Malley (TKO Rd1, 2020) and losses to Jose Aldo (UD, 2020) and Song Yadong (UD, 2020).
Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera Narratives
Popular narratives heading into this main event include Rob Font being the superior striker who will likely land more strikes than Vera no matter the outcome. Fans of Chito Vera have long clamored for a five-round fight for the Ecuadorian, believing in Vera’s cardio and ability to get stronger and more effective the longer the fight goes.
Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera Prediction
Our handicap for this contest is based on Vera having never been finished in the UFC and Font having only been finished once by a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist in Pedro Munhoz (sub Rd1, 2017).
Expect Font to win the first two rounds with technical boxing and his footwork. While some might perceive Vera as possibly having better grappling, Font may have underrated wrestling ability that will likely make it hard to submit him or keep him on the ground, leading to a fight that goes into the championship rounds.
Vera will indeed get stronger and cause more damage in rounds three, four and five, and we see the betting value on Vera at underdog odds with his capacity to win the later rounds and possibly even score a late ground and pound finish, but anticipate that this contest will go the distance.
Pick: Over 4.5 rounds (-160)
Featured Image credit:
Embed from Getty Images