No, it’s not the coronavirus pandemic anymore and yet the UFC is heading back to the United Arab Emirates.
It’s been a wild couple of weeks for this card which has taken on an entirely new look for its two main events in the last two weeks. Initially scheduled to see Islam Makachev defend the lightweight strap against Charles Oliveira, the latter received a cut and subsequent poor treatment which rendered him unable to fly out and compete.
Meanwhile the co-main event will see former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman put on the pounds at short notice and move up to 185 to take on the fearsome resident boogeyman of the division, Khamzat Chimaev.
So who are the card standouts and bets to watch? Who are the four men featuring in the co-main events and what can we expect from the touts? Let’s dive in.
Let’s start with some undercard and main card bits so we bury the lede nicely.
Muhammed Mokaev vs Tim Elliott – prelim – Mokaev decision
MMA fans will be psyched to see the first ‘real’ test for the long-hyped undefeated flyweight prospect, Muhammed Mokaev against Tim Elliott.
At just 23-years old, Mokaev built a hell of a CV in the amateur ranks before blasting through his ten professional opponents with relative ease. Elliott is always a fun fighter for fans due to his really awkward and unpredictable striking style and gung-ho wrestling and as a two-time UFC veteran, having been ousted from the promotion in 2015, he once more seems to have found his feet.
This should be a relatively straightforward contest for Mokaev if he can remain his composed and clinical self and the sharp money should be a Mokaev decision.
Those who want to bet on the fight can get top free bets for new and returning users.
Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker – main card – Walker K.O.
I love me an upset and here’s one I’m going for, purely based on vibes. The smart money should, in theory, be on Ankalaev who is 17-1-1 through his professional career and 9-1-1 in the UFC. A *brutal* mauler on the ground, the Russian entered the UFC with a trademark reckless abandon for risk control and just bludgeoned dudes left and right. His only loss came when he happily executed this plan against Paul Craig in his UFC debut, only to give up position and tap in the final second to a triangle choke.
Don’t hear what I’m not saying, Ankalaev should win this fight. But if you haven’t seen Walker in the cage before, he’s a weird fish and a tough cookie. He quickly became the division’s hottest prospect when he tore through the ranks knocking out contender after contender between 2018 and 2021 with a strategy akin to drunken hulk smash. A long injury lay-off and a worrying knowckout at the hands of Jamahal Hill later and he’s put together a couple of shaky wins with a very different style.
If Ankalaev is smart, he shoots the takedown over and over and over to win out the rounds on points or a submission. But I can’t look past Walker as a +280 underdog having seen the wildness he’s dealt out in the past.
Khamzat Chimaev vs Kamaru Usman – Main card – Chimaev by KO
It’s pretty clear to most of the MMA world that Chimaev is on his way to being a champion one day. Few fighters can claim to have run through everybody in their path but he is one who can. The only fighter that has taken Chimaev the distance is multiple-time title challenger and gatekeeper to the middleweight title, Gilbert Durinho Burns over whom Chimaev won a unanimous decision.
He was scheduled for the bright lights of the top of the main card at UFC 279 against Nate Diaz, before missing weight by approximately 10 lbs. That night he decided to run over the plucky but doomed Kevin Holland.
Now it is to Kamaru Usman that Chimaev sets his sights as his initially scheduled opponent, Brazilian Paulo Costa had to pull out due to injury.
It is hard to parse exactly what this fight means for Usman and what’s the likely outcome for him. Having decidedly lost his trilogy with Leon Edwards earlier this year, the former welterweight king in all likelihood found himself without an obvious next move so a move to middleweight isn’t the strangest thing in the world.
In his career at the lower weight division, Usman looked like a puzzle that couldn’t be solved for over four years, displaying far more striking capability than many give him credit for outside of his fearsome wrestling capabilities. This skillset was enough to see off challenges from Colby Covington twice, Jorge Masvidal twice and Gilbert Burns.
But in such a ‘what have you shown me lately’ sport, the answer for Usman is that the ‘Nigerean Nightmare’ is slowing down somewhat. Perhaps the knee injuries, so bad he supposedly has to walk on grass wherever possible in his day to day life, are catching up to him fully.
Not the prognosis you want heading in to fight a man like Chimaev. I’m punting on the latter to get another of his trademark short order wins for three reasons.
Firstly, I think Chimaev wants to make a statement win to get a title shot ASAP. He’s several years into his UFC career and has had a few frustrating periods of extended time off so he’ll want to blow the doors off Usman. Secondly, I don’t see Usman being able to handle Chimaev over the long haul of this fight given the age and injury history disparity and finally, the short notice. This is a VERY different proposition for Usman if he had 4 months notice to prepare. He’s had two weeks. The safe bet is Chimaev by decision, but I like by knockout.
Islam Makachev vs Alexander Volkanovski – lightweight championship – main card
Before we dive in here, I want to clarify that this is potentially one of the best fights you can make in the sport and though there may be gripes ahead, that statement remains true.
Concerning Makachev, let’s get one thing straight. The Khabib comparisons are valid.
Yes, he’s lost a fight; a stunning knockout at the hands of Adriano Martins in his 2015 UFC debut. That remains his only loss and if anything he is even more of a well-rounded fighter than the legendary Khabib in the sense that he doesn’t force his strict gameplan within every bout.
Take his pummeling of Oliveira to win the lightweight title; sure he submitted him eventually but through the rounds prior he outstruck ‘Do Bronxs’ Oliveira on the feet.
Challenging Volkanovski to come up was a real power move and though the fight proved entertaining, the end result was that Makachev once again surprised with his striking prowess against the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world on his way to securing a decision win.
Volk for his part is a stud of a different breed. Universally-well-liked, the Australian and his team down under consistently put together gameplans of the highest sophistication to match his tenacity and exceptionally his fight IQ across all facets of octagon management.
These approaches have earned him wins over the the likes of the previous greatest featherweight ever Max Holloway, Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo, Chan Sung Jung and, most recently, Jair Rodriguez.
Here’s what I hate about this fight. The short notice element was never going to be an issue for Volkanovski saying yes, he believes himself to be the baddest man on the planet and he’s more than earned that.
But with little time to organise his trademark high-strategy camp, it leaves Makachev who has been on a rest since the two last met in February, as the deserved favourite.
The pick is Makachev by decision but make no mistake. If Volkanovski pulls this win off, it is one of the most impressive MMA accomplishments in history.
