June 1 is the start of meteorological summer. In MMA circles, June 1 starts the summer of competitive violence. The sport’s top promotion, the UFC, starts off this three-month stretch of action with the first of two pay-per-view events in the month of the summer solstice.
On June 29, Conor McGregor (22-6 MMA, 10-4 UFC) squares off against Michael Chandler (23-8 MMA, 2-3 UFC), formerly the Bellator MMA Lightweight Champion, in a nontitle showcase affair at welterweight from Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena in UFC 303. This Saturday night, however, Newark, NJ is the epicenter of the MMA world when Prudential Center plays host to UFC 302.
Barring any late postponements between now and the weekend, the final version of UFC 302 features a full 12-fight card. Live coverage begins with the early prelims at 6:30 pm ET/ 3:30 pm PT on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+, continuing at 8 pm ET/ 5 pm PT with the late prelims, but here’s this programming note if you’re watching on linear television:
The UFC 302 late prelims will be seen Saturday night on ESPN2, with ESPN proper being occupied by coverage of the 2024 NCAA Division I Women’s College World Series and NCAA Division I Baseball Tournament from 7 pm ET/ 4 pm PT onwards. Main card action concludes the evening on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 pm ET/ 7 pm PT.
Lightweight Championship at Stake in UFC 302 Main Event
Highlighting the night’s activities is the battle for the UFC Lightweight Championship in the UFC 302 main event. Current champion Islam Makhachev (25-1 MMA, 14-1 UFC) squares off against challenger and No. 4 contender Dustin Poirier (30-8, 1 NC MMA, 22-7, 1 NC UFC).
As with all UFC championship fights, the UFC 302 main event is an advertised five rounds at five minutes per round to close the show.
Happy #WallpaperWednesday 📱
Get ready for #UFC302 and freshen up your phones! pic.twitter.com/woueAHryEt
— UFC (@ufc) May 29, 2024
UFC 302 Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds
Heading into the UFC 302 main event on Saturday night, Islam Makhachev stands as the taller man at 5-foot-10, compared to Dustin Poirier’s 5-foot-9 frame. Poirier owns a 1 1/2-inch reach advantage (72 inches even to 70 1/2 inches) over Makhachev, with the contestants owning identical 40 1/2-inch leg reaches.
Currently, the oddsmakers have Islam Makhachev installed as a -650 favorite on the money line, with Dustin Poirier countering as a +470 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening this weekend, please wager responsibly.
Makhachev Doesn’t Care Who’s Next Man Up
Islam Makhachev enters the UFC 302 main event having gone 5-0 in his last five appearances. All told, he comes into the weekend on a 13-fight winning streak.
Last time out, he stopped Alexander Volkanovski (26-4 MMA, 13-3 UFC) with a first-round knockout (head kick followed by hammerfists) during UFC 294 last October. While Dustin Poirier is on Makhachev’s dance card this weekend, he’s already looking ahead to his fight after the UFC 302 main event, as he mentioned on NBC Sports’ Octagons, Circles, and Squares podcast.
“I’m just thinking about my next fight,” the champion stated. “It’s not my job thinking about the future because I have a manager. I have a team. I’m fighting in the UFC. They make the decision. Who they put against me, I will be ready.”
Thinking ahead to the next fight is a dangerous idea for any competitor. Looking too far ahead could be a distraction for Makhachev as Dustin Poirier looms on Saturday night.
Can he focus on the here and now for the UFC 302 main event? Only time will tell.
Will Poirier Hang Up His Gloves?
In the other corner, challenger Dustin Poirier has posted a record of 3-2 in his last five contests. Most recently, he bested Benoit Saint-Denis (13-2, 1 NC MMA, 5-2 UFC) with a second-round knockout (right hook) during UFC 299 back in March.
A big storyline heading into the UFC 302 main event is the possibility that Poirier might make his final walk to the famed UFC Octagon on Saturday night, something that he talked to CBS Sports about last week.
“I’m capable of anything,” Poirier began. “I can climb back to this spot and fight again for the world title. I can do anything. I can grind back to it. I know I can. It’s just that I don’t have it in me, and I’m not going to do it again. I’m not going to climb the ladder again. I’ve been doing this a long time. It’s a very selfish sport. I’m ready to be a father and a husband and be home and be into a routine.”
While Dustin Poirier’s status beyond the UFC 302 main event on Saturday night is still a question, a victory over Makhachev would certainly be a career highlight.
Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction
Stylistically, the UFC 302 main event looks to favor Islam Makhachev, a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo, compared to Dustin Poirier’s status as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Makhachev Can Finish the Job Quickly
Statistically speaking, Islam Makhachev has scored 16 of his 25 career wins by way of stoppage, including his most recent win vs. Volkanovski last fall. When Makhachev seizes control of the fight, it could only be a matter of moments before the contest ends.
During the first round of a scheduled five, once the fighters got to the clinch, Makhachev landed some knees to the body before Volkanovski counterpunched. After Volkanovski broke free, Makhachev scored with a leg kick and then stalked his opponent, finally landing a perfect kick to the head to knock him down, finishing him with hammerfists.
Should Islam Makhachev come out like a house on fire in the UFC 302 main event, this one could be a wrap in a hurry, ladies and gentlemen.
Poirier Can Flip The Script
In the other corner, watch for Dustin Poirier to battle back if he needs to. During his last appearance vs. Saint-Denis, he successfully reversed his own fortune.
After withstanding a submission attempt from his opponent in round two, Poirier worked his way back to a clinch and absorbed body punches by Saint-Denis before returning fire with counter strikes, scoring a knockdown.
While Saint-Denis attempted another guillotine choke, this proved to be a moot point thanks to Poirier landing a single punch to the head to knock him out. If Dustin Poirier finds himself on the receiving end of a burst of strikes from Islam Makhachev, he need not worry. He knows what to do and how to do it.
Final Thoughts
Even though the UFC 302 main event may or may not be Dustin Poirier’s fight, if you’re on the fence about ordering the card, give it a try.
Prediction: Dustin Poirier by Second-Round TKO.
