Analysis

Samourai MMA Chapter 11 Main Event Breakdown

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Labor Day weekend is here. Before you take a final dip in your backyard swimming pool prior to closing it up and winterizing it, you’ve got a few more days left to squeeze out what’s left of summer (albeit unofficially.) Over the long weekend, there’s time to be spent inside.

MMA fans don’t have too many options to select from to get their fight fix this coming weekend. Even though the UFC‘s got the holiday weekend off, there’s still some competitive violence to be had inside North America. Just over two months removed from Samourai MMA holding its second show of 2024, the promotion returns to kick off the Labor Day weekend with Samourai MMA Chapter 11.

Coverage begins at 8 pm ET/ 5 pm PT in both English and French on UFC Fight Pass from La Tohu in Montreal, Quebec. Absent of any late changes to the bout order, the final version of this show features seven contests.

Championship Doubleheader Capped Off By Featherweight Title Fight

Highlighting the itinerary for the evening is a twin-bill of championship contests. Immediately following the co-main event of the evening for the Samourai MMA Super-Lightweight Championship, the battle for the Samourai MMA Featherweight Championship is held in the Samourai MMA Chapter 11 main event.

Current 145-lb. champion Frederik Dupras (7-1 MMA, 5-0 Samourai) takes on 30-fight veteran Jesse Arnett (20-10 MMA, Samourai promotional debut.) The Samourai MMA Chapter 11 main event is an advertised maximum of five rounds at five minutes per round to close the show.

Originally, these two men were set to make the walk on June 21 during Samourai MMA Chapter 10 with the 145-lb. strap on the line, but the fight was postponed the night of the show due to Arnett becoming ill. How will the rebooking play out?

Samourai MMA Chapter 11 Main Event Fighter Comparison

Heading into the Samourai MMA Chapter 11 main event on Friday night, both contestants stand level in height at 5-foot-9. Arnett owns a one-inch reach advantage (69 inches to 68 inches) over Dupras.

Currently, the oddsmakers have yet to make money lines available for Samourai MMA Chapter 11 on Friday night. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening this weekend in MMA or combat sports, please wager responsibly.

Champion Dupras Returning After Layoff of Nearly a Year

Frederik Dupras enters the rebooked featherweight championship fight having posted a perfect 5-0 mark in his last five MMA fights dating back to Samourai MMA Chapter 1 in September of 2021. Prior to the original fight versus Arnett getting called off a couple of months ago, he scored a first-round submission by way of guillotine choke against Jordan Beltran (14-11 MMA, 0-1 Samourai) last September.

While Dupras might be on UFC CEO Dana White‘s radar for a deal with the promotion if he scores a win over Arnett on Friday night during the Samourai MMA Chapter 11 main event, let’s face the facts: Taking an extended time off from the sport is detrimental toward a fighter’s development.

It’s even worse when the hiatus drags on even further because of circumstances beyond the fighter’s control, which is what Dupras had to face in June. How much ring rust does he have? Only time will tell.

Can Jesse Arnett Prove Age is Only a Number in Samourai MMA Chapter 11 Main Event?

In the other corner, Jesse Arnett has gone 2-3 in his last five contests. He’s on a two-fight losing streak ahead of the featherweight title fight on Friday evening.

Both of his losses have come against the same adversary, Ali AlQaisi (15-8 MMA) in the second and third parts of a trilogy between the two, including their fight on May 20, 2023. This is his first appearance in an MMA fight in 2024, this coming after two cancellations, including the original date in June vs. Frederik Dupras.

A bigger storyline going into this fight is the fact that the Samourai MMA Chapter 11 main event is Jesse Arnett’s first since turning 40 years of age on July 11. Arnett is a decorate combat sports champion, having won eight straps throughout his career, including the UAE Warriors Featherweight Championship in July of 2022.

Should he score the victory here, it would make nine promotional championships, cementing Arnett as one of the sport’s greats. Can he get the job done?

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Stylistically, the Samourai MMA Chapter 11 main event looks to be a toss-up. While Jesse Arnett is a wrestler by trade, Frederik Dupras has finished all seven of his professional opponents by submission.

Dupras Can Work Expediently

Each of Frederik Dupras’ seven career submission wins have been recorded before the bell’s tolled to end the first round. One such win happened in his second career appearance under the TKO MMA banner against Deven McIntyre.

Right after the command to fight was issued by the referee, Dupras hunted for, and secured, a takedown on McIntyre. From there, it was game, set, and match in a hurry, as he quickly worked on a guillotine choke, with Dupras informing the referee that McIntyre was out.

Look for Dupras to try to aim for a takedown at his earliest opportunity on Friday night in the Samourai MMA Chapter 11 main event. If he drops Arnett quickly, this one could be done before the viewer has a chance to open up a bag of potato chips.

Jesse Arnett Can Battle Back

In the other corner, Jesse Arnett has the skillset to flip the script if the situation calls for it. One need look no further than his TKO MMA fight versus Sebastian Ruiz.

During round two of a scheduled five, as this was a championship bout,  Arnett absorbed a vicious knee that knocked him down before he took back mount for a brief moment. Upon Arnett using his movement advantageously to capitalize on a weakened Ruiz, he dropped his opponent after eating a hook, applying the torque to finish a guillotine choke of his own.

If Jesse Arnett finds himself in a precarious situation, he can better his cause in the Samourai MMA Chapter 11 main event.

Final Thoughts

Two months after the original contest was postponed, Dupras and Arnett finally meet in the cage Friday night. With there being a light schedule in MMA, this may end up being the best fight all weekend long.

Prediction: Frederik Dupras by First-Round Submission. 

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Drew Zuhosky has been writing about combat sports since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.