Analysis

Noche UFC Main Event Breakdown

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A packed Saturday of combat sports reaches its apex in the Las Vegas area at nightfall. One of the most anticipated MMA events of 2024 takes place at the Las Vegas Sphere. UFC CEO Dana White mentioned earlier this week that Saturday night’s Noche UFC at the venue, also known as UFC 306:

“This is going to be a one-of-one, one-and-done, never done again event.” In addition, there will be segments of a movie playing out between fights on the card.

As far as the fights themselves, action begins at 7:30 pm ET/ 4:30 pm PT on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass with a single prelim in addition to airing linearly on ESPNNEWS. Note: For those of you reading inside the United States and are currently subscribed to DIRECTV, the week and a half-old carriage dispute between the satellite provider and The Walt Disney Company is still active as of Wednesday afternoon.

Bantamweight Gold at Stake in Noche UFC Main Event

Late prelims air at 8 pm ET/ 5 pm PT on ESPNNEWS and ESPN+ before the main card happens at 10 pm ET/ 7 pm PT on ESPN+ pay-per-view. Highlighting the night’s activities is a championship doubleheader.

Immediately following the trilogy bout versing champion Alexa Grasso (16-3-1 MMA, 8-3-1 UFC) and No. 1 contender Valentina Shevchenko (24-3-1 MMA, 12-3-1 UFC) in the co-main event, supremacy at 135 lbs. is up for grabs in the headliner. Current champion Sean O’Malley (18-1, 1 NC MMA, 10-1 UFC) battles No. 1 contender Merab Dvalishvili (17-4 MMA, 10-2 UFC.)

As with all UFC championship fights, this one is an advertised maximum of five rounds at five minutes per round to close the show.

Noche UFC Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into the Noche UFC main event on Saturday night, Sean O’Malley stands as the taller man at 5-foot-11, compared to the 5-foot-6 frame of Merab Dvalishvili. The champ owns a four-inch reach advantage (72 inches to 68 inches) and a two-inch leg reach advantage (40 inches to 38 inches) over the challenger.

Currently, the oddsmakers have Sean O’Malley installed as a -130 favorite on the money line, while Merab Dvalishvili counters as a +130 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening this weekend in MMA or combat sports, please wager responsibly.

“Suga” Aims for Fourth Straight Win Saturday Night

Sean O’Malley enters the Noche UFC main event this coming weekend having gone 4-0 with one no-contest in his last five fights. Currently, he’s on a seven-fight unbeaten streak.

Last time out, he scored a unanimous decision victory over Marlon Vera (23-10-1 MMA, 15-9 UFC) during a rematch in UFC 299 back in March. During a recent interview with ESPN’s Brett Okamoto, O’Malley discussed what it takes to be among the greats in the sport.

“I think you have to want to be a star, and when I was in middle school, I did,” the champion mentioned. “There are other guys who could be superstars. I just don’t think they want to be. Conor McGregor wanted to be a superstar. Ilia Topuria wants to be a superstar.”

Unlike some of O’Malley’s contemporaries, he’s had the desire to pursue stardom and has achieved it. His star has risen to the apex of the sport already, and a successful defense of the belt will ensure it stays that way.

Dvalishvili Throws Verbal Jabs Ahead of Noche UFC Main Event

In the other corner, Merab Dvalishvili has posted a mark of 5-0 in his last five contests. At the moment, he’s won 10 fights in succession.

Back in February of this year, he scored a unanimous decision win against Henry Cejudo (16-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC) during UFC 298. The war of words has already started in an interview with MMA Fighting, with the issue at hand being Sean O’Malley’s victory over Aljamain Sterling in August of last year.

“First off all, you don’t knock Aljo out,” Dvalishvili said. “Yes, you dropped him and Marc Goddard stopped the fight early. Second of all, every fight is different. If you fought Aljo 10 more times,  I believe he will beat you nine times. Same thing with me.”

For Merab Dvalishvili, the time for talk has all but elapsed. Can he turn his words into action?

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Stylistically, the Noche UFC main event looks to favor Merab Dvalishvili, a black belt in judo, compared to Sean O’Malley’s status as a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

O’Malley Can Go to Work in A Hurry

Sean O’Malley has been known to use his fists advantageously to turn the tide in a fight, like he did in his August 2023 fight versus the aforementioned Aljamain Sterling. After fighting his way out of a takedown attempt, O’Malley threw a feint leg kick before knocking him down with a punch.

A burst of ground and pound shots ended the contest. If Sean O’Malley connects on a big punch early in a round, that could be the opening he needs to score the win.

Look for Dvalishvili to Wear Down O’Malley

In the other corner, Merab Dvalishvili’s ground game could tell the tale here. During his fight vs. Henry Cejudo last February, he converted on five takedowns throughout the contest.

Additionally, he outpaced Cejudo in strikes by a 74-29 clip during the 15 minutes. Perhaps the most seminal moment of the fight occurred during the second round. With under two minutes left in the period. Dvalishvili put Cejudo in the back clinch, landing a takedown and going into back mount.

In so doing, he made Cejudo work to the point of exhaustion, absorbing a few punches on the ground while he breathed with his mouth open. Even though Cejudo managed to break away, he was spent. Dvalishvili went to work on a tight guillotine choke but the clock for round two expired before he could finish it.

Anytime a fighter can tire their opponent out over the course of a round, it can play a big role in determining the final result. Cejudo has to force O’Malley off of his gameplan here.

Final Thoughts

This is a cracking affair in the Noche UFC main event. Don’t miss it.

Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili by Unanimous Decision. 

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Drew Zuhosky has been writing about combat sports since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.