Analysis

UFC 307 Main Event Breakdown

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Everybody loves a doubleheader in sports. In the baseball parlance, a doubleheader means two for the price of one. What a better way to celebrate the first day of the League Division Series in MLB than to have a doubleheader… of MMA action.

That’s just what the UFC‘s got planned for Saturday night in Salt Lake City. Delta Center is the site of the first of two pay-per-view events this month, UFC 307. Coverage of the event starts at 6:30 pm ET/ 3:30 pm PT on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass for action from the early prelims.

Late prelims follow at 8 pm ET/ 5 pm PT on ESPN+ and ESPNNEWS before capping the night with the pay-per-view main card at 10 pm ET/ 7 pm PT on ESPN+. If there are no cancellations on the bout order, UFC 307 will have 12 fights Saturday evening.

Light Heavyweight Gold at Stake in UFC 307 Main Event

Highlighting the show is a championship doubleheader. Immediately following the UFC 307 co-main event, the headlining affair sees the promotion’s light heavyweight championship in the main event of the evening.

Incumbent champion Alex Pereira (11-2 MMA, 8-1 UFC) walks to the famed Octagon for the 10th time to face challenger and No. 8 contender Khalil Rountree Jr. (13-5, 1 NC MMA, 9-5, 1 NC UFC) in the UFC 307 main event. This is an advertised maximum of five rounds at five minutes per round to close out the show.

UFC 307 Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into the UFC 307 main event on Saturday night, Alex Pereira stands as the taller man at 6-foot-4, compared to the 6-foot-1 frame of Khalil Rountree Jr. Pereira owns a 2 1/2-inch reach advantage, with both contestants level in leg reach (44 inches apiece.)

Currently, the oddsmakers have Alex Pereira installed as a -500 betting favorite on the money line, while Khalil Rountree Jr. counters as a +380 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening this weekend, please wager responsibly.

“Poatan” Facing Quick Turnaround in UFC 307 Main Event

Champion Alex Pereira enters the UFC 307 main event on Saturday night having posted a 4-1 mark in his last five fights. At the moment, he’s won four fights in succession.

Most recently, he only needed to last 13 seconds into the second round to finish Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1 MMA, 4-2 UFC) on June 29 during UFC 303 in Las Vegas. By the time the cage door closes in Salt Lake City on Saturday night, it will have only been 98 days between contests for “Poatan.”

Recently, he was interviewed by Anthony Smith for an episode of the latter’s Lionheart Lounge series where he discussed his tattoos.

“My first tattoo was on my arm, a dragon, but many of them don’t mean anything, but I think it’s cool either way,” Pereira said, translated through subtitles. “Like I said, my first one was on my arm, then I got a dragon on my back and I think dragons were popular. And I thought, ‘What am I going to get a tattoo of?’ Everyone was getting dragons, it was a trend, so I got a dragon.”

With less than 100 days between fights, what can “Poatan” do for an encore?

Can Rountree Play the Spoiler in UFC 307 Main Event?

In the other corner, Khalil Rountree Jr. has gone 5-0 in his last five fights. Most recently, he scored a third-round knockout (uppercut followed by left hook) of the aforementioned Anthony Smith (37-20 MMA, 13-10 UFC) during UFC Fight Night last December.

Initially, Rountree was due to return to the Octagon on June 29 during UFC 303 inside T-Mobile Arena against Jamahal Hill (12-2, 1 NC MMA, 6-2, 1 NC UFC), but the fight was postponed prior to the event after the former was serving a suspension for inadvertently ingesting a prohibited substance.  His ban ended just a couple of weeks ago, having paid a $157 (USD) penalty.

While Rountree was denied a chance to secure a title shot just over three months ago, he’s getting his chance at the belt this Saturday, after having a long time to get to this point. How will he respond to the pressure of facing a champion of Alex Pereira’s ilk this weekend?

Analysis, Film Study and Prediction

The UFC 307 main event looks to be another strength vs. strength matchup. Who takes the title?

Pereira Only Needs a Little Bit of Room

Alex Pereira can end this fight with just one single blow. Jiri Prochazka was on the receiving end of “Poatan’s” last knockout. During the second round of the fight, after having knocked Prochazka down right at the horn to end round one with a left hook, Pereira put him down right away with a head kick.

Although he scored with a burst of ground and pound shots afterward, the damage was already done, with Herb Dean waving the contest off in just 13 seconds. If Alex Pereira gets enough of a window to inflict some pain, the UFC 307 main event is his.

Rountree is Equally Vicious

In the other corner, Khalil Rountree sings “Anything you can do, I can do better.” He also subscribes to the “One-Hitter Quitter” approach, as illustrated during his August 2023 fight vs. Chris Daukaus at the UFC Apex.

Round one of the fight saw Rountree stalking Daukaus after exchanging shots, including counter right-handed punches. A left-handed punch, however, put Daukaus down before finishing him off with ground and pound shots.

Khalil Rountree has to knock Alex Pereira off of his gameplan on Saturday night. One miscue from Pereira will make Rountree the new champion.

Final Thoughts

Get your popcorn ready for the UFC 307 main event on Saturday. This one could be over in a hurry.

Prediction: Alex Pereira by Second-Round Knockout. 

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Drew Zuhosky has been writing about combat sports since May of 2018, coming to MMASucka after stints at Overtime Heroics and Armchair All-Americans. A graduate of Youngstown State University in Youngstown, OH, Drew is a charter member of the Youngstown Press Club. Prior to beginning his professional career, Drew was a sportswriter for YSU's student-run newspaper, The Jambar, where he supplied Press Box Perspective columns every week.