Is The Deck Stacked Against Francis Ngannou?

A Scriptwriter’s Dream

As narratives go, the story of Francis Ngannou is up there with some of the greatest fairytales the world of combat sports has ever known. The Cameroonian makes his PFL debut in Saudi Arabia this Saturday, but he steps into the SmartCage for the first time with a tsunami of chaos in his rearview mirror.

Ngannou’s origin story is one of rags to riches and has been told many times since his breakthrough to the pinnacle of the world of prize fighting. It is the type of tale that might have Hollywood producers licking their lips, and indeed his redemption arc since walking away from the world’s leading promotion (and relinquishing the UFC heavyweight title in the process) would probably have the makings of an impressive sequel.

The fascinating story behind his feud with Dana White , his alleged “fumbling of the bag” and finally realising his ambition of facing Tyson Fury in the squared circle a year ago was not the closing act in the Ngannou’s storyline, however. “The Predator” shocked everybody by announcing his return to the cage, which finally takes place this weekend when he will square off against Renan Ferreira at the PFL’s showcase event in Riyadh.

This third act in Ngannou’s cinematic story has contained plenty of twists and turns, along with more tragedy than anyone would wish upon their worst enemy. And as the 38-year-old prepares to face “Problema” in Saturday’s main event, there are many questions surrounding his ability to reach the high standards we have become accustomed to seeing from him throughout his MMA career to date.

Return To Action

One big question that we should find out the answer to this Saturday is concerning Ngannou’s physical capacity to compete at the highest level. Following his last appearance inside the Octagon at UFC 270 back in January of 2022, in which he defended his heavyweight title against Cyril Gane, Ngannou revealed he had fought with a ruptured MCL and a damaged ACL, for which he underwent surgery for two months later.

Ngannou signalled his intention to enter free agency (and pursue the right to compete in boxing) almost immediately after the Gane fight. His only competitive appearances since then have been in the boxing ring against Fury (in October 2023) and against Anthony Joshua (in March of this year). With his focus shifted entirely away from the cage (and some time off after the loss to Joshua factored in), it would be pretty safe to assume that MMA-specific training is something that Ngannou may have only recently delved back into.

Conditioning your body to handle the rigors of wrestling, scrambling and checking and throwing kicks can take years of consistent mat time. There aren’t a multitude of examples of fighters throughout the history of MMA who have dipped in and out and still shown the capacity to withstand its physical demands.

On the other hand, we only have to glance at a certain Notorious Irishman to find a sample of a fighter who has been pulled away from the game for extended periods and looked less resilient upon his return.

Activity breeds both sharpness and confidence . Ferreira can certainly claim to have been more active than his opponent since Ngannou last attempted to mix the martial arts. The Brazilian has fought eight times since then and is coming off the back of four consecutive knockout victories.

A Crushing Defeat

The proximity of this fight to Ngannou’s last boxing match must also be considered. The lineal heavyweight MMA champion was dropped to the canvas three times in the opening five-and-a-half minutes by Anthony Joshua just seven months ago. Suffering such a concussive dismantling at the hands of the Brit will surely have had a negative effect on Ngannou’s ability to prepare for his upcoming fight, and if there is one type  of fighter in all of heavyweight mixed martial arts you probably don’t want to be facing if you have doubts about your ability to take a shot to the head, Ferreira certainly fits that bill.

Heartbreaking Tragedy

Finally, there are question marks around Ngannou’s mental state ahead of his return this Saturday. Just a few weeks after the defeat to Joshua, Ngannou suffered an unspeakable tragedy when his 15-month-old son Kobe passed away. Speaking during an appearance on Joe Rogan Experience a few months afterwards, he detailed his anguish.

“At least whenever I die, I’m going to see my kid,” Ngannou said. “I’m going to see him. I’m not afraid of (death). I still want to live, but when you get to that point, to think like that…so for some way, you’re looking forward for whenever that happens”.

In the wake of such incomprehensible heartache, it’s difficult to know what version of Francis Ngannou will step into the PFL SmartCage when the main event rolls around this Saturday. There is no question that he has reached greater heights throughout his amazing career than his Brazilian opponent has but given what Ngannou has had to endure over the past twelve months, we could be forgiven for pondering whether he may be taking on too much, too soon.

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