The final PPV of the year and the current era, UFC 323 goes down this weekend from the fight capital of the world, Las Vegas. We provide you with all your UFC 323 betting tips and picks.
We’re being treated to a championship double header as we have the bantamweight championship and flyweight championship up for grabs.
In the main event, Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan meet in a rematch of their 2023 bout, however, this time, gold is on the line.
The co-main event sees the young up and comer, Joshua Van clash with the seasoned champion, Alexandre Pantoja for the flyweight strap.
With plenty of intriguing fights up and down the card, we provide you with our UFC 323 betting tips.
UFC 323 Betting Tips
Merab Dvalishvili to Win via Decision -210
Although not the best odds, Merab Dvalishvili is going into UFC 323 to try and make history. If he wins, he becomes the first UFC champion to make four defences in a calendar year.
So, why not back the rinse and repeat? When Merab and Yan first met, it was a one-sided beatdown for the now champion. A dominant performance from the Georgian saw him take Yan down 11 times but attempt a crazy 49 takedowns over 25 minutes. Yan was never able to get his game going and ultimately was convincingly beaten by Dvalishvili.
Since then, Dvalishvili has gone 5-0 defeating Henry Cejudo, Sean O’Malley (twice), Umar Nurmagomedov and Cory Sandhagen. An impressive run without a doubt. Yan rebounded from the loss and defeated Song Yadong, Deiveson Figueiredo and Marcus McGhee.
The first of our UFC 323 betting tips is Merab Dvalishvili to win via decision. Yan is too good to get finished but Merab is simply too dominant not to win.
Alexandre Pantoja to Win via Submission +155
The champion, Alexandre Pantoja, is set to make his second title defence of the year as he clashes with Joshua Van. Enjoying an eight fight winning run, the #5 ranked pound for pound fighter in the world has been on a tear since winning the belt and is feared at 125lbs.
Van is the up and comer. He’s only 24 years of age and holds an 8-1 UFC record. The fun scrapper is always keen for a scrap and in his last outing against Brandon Royval, he showed the heart of a champion. He’s got heavy hands, recording four knockdowns in his last two fights.
The issue for Van is his mindset. He is too willing to stand in the pocket and throw down with his opponents, something that Pantoja can capitalise on. If the champion can entice him into extended combinations, he can time the takedown and work his elite ground game.
Van’s takedown defence is 81%, however, has been taken down 10 times in his UFC career. Although Pantoja’s takedown accuracy is just 47%, he’s relentless in his pursuit of grounding his opponents. Since becoming champion, Pantoja has landed 23 takedowns in four fights, submitting his last two opponents.
Joshua Van will come again, but the second of our UFC 323 betting tips is Pantoja via submission.
Henry Cejudo Outright +225
In what will be his final walk, Henry Cejudo calls time on an epic career as he takes on up and comer, Payton Talbott.
The former double champion and Olympic gold medalist will look to snap a three fight skid, whereas Talbott looks to win his second straight bout.
Interestingly, Cejudo is as high as a +225 underdog heading into the fight, despite being the far more experienced man in there. He has more UFC fights than Talbott has overall fights. On top of this, he has more title fights than Talbott has promotional outings.
There’s a clear route to victory for Cejudo and it’s his bread and butter. Wrestle. Talbott is a fantastic striker, however, in his lone career loss, Talbott was taken down eight times by Raoni Barcelos and largely controlled on the ground. He was also taken down three times against Filipe Lima last time out, although he did show some improvements.
We know Cejudo can wrestle, his credentials speak for themselves. If he is to win, he needs to go back to what he knows best for his last outing. At +225, it’s worth the risk and that’s why it’s the final one of our UFC 323 betting tips.
Other bets to look out for
Mansur Abdul-Malik to win via stoppage
Jalin Turner outright (-250)
Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan – Under 1.5 rounds (-360)
Karine Silva outright (+140)
Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres – over 1.5 rounds (+130)
Backing any of our UFC 323 betting tips? Let us know in the comments below!
