Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC on FX 8: Vitor Belfort vs. Luke Rockhold.
Luke Rockhold:
- Age: 28
- Camp: American Kickboxing Academy
- Record: 10-1
- Stance: Southpaw
- Reach: 77”
- Win Percentages: 2 (T)KOs (20%), 6 Submissions (60%), 2 Unanimous Decisions (20%)
- Loss Percentages: 1 (T)KO (100%)
- Last (T)KO Victory: Jan 07, 2012 over Keith Jardine
- Last Submission Victory: Nov 6, 2009 over Jesse Taylor
- Last Decision Victory: July 14, 2012 over Tim Kennedy
- Last (T)KO Loss: Nov 6, 2007 to Tony Rubalcava
- Last Submission Loss: N/A
- Last Decision Loss: N/A
- Submissions Victories by Method: Rear Naked Choke 4x (66.67%), Armbar 1x (1.67%), Punches 1x (1.67%)
- Fights in Brazil: N/A
- Wins in Brazil: N/A
- Decision Victories In the UFC: N/A
- Total Time in the Cage: 77 Minutes, 34 Seconds (77.567)
- Significant Strikes Per Minute: 3.37
- Striking Accuracy: 41%
- Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.63
- Significant Strikes Defended Percentage: 63%
- Average Takedown Attempts Per 15 Minutes: 0.21
- Takedown Accuracy: 25%
- Takedown Defense Percentage: 70%
- Average Submission Attempts Per 15 Minutes: 0.86
- Average Submission Completion Rate: 54%
- Most Significant Strikes Landed In a Fight: 97/306 (Vs.Ronaldo Souza, Sep 10, 2011)
- Total Fight Time: 75:34
Vitor Belfort
- Age: 36
- Camp: Blackzillians
- Stance: Southpaw
- Reach: 74”
- Record: 22-10
- Win Percentages: 15 (T)KOs (67%), 3 Submissions (14%), 4 Unanimous Decisions (18%)
- Loss Percentages: 3 (T)KOs (30%), 2 Submissions (20%), 4 Unanimous Decisions (40%), 1 Split Decision (10%)
- Last (T)KO Victory: Jan 19, 2013 over Michael Bisping
- Last Submission Victory: Jan 14, 2012 over Anthony Johnson
- Last Decision Victory: Sept 22, 2007 over James Zikic
- Last (T)KO Loss: Feb 05, 2011 to Anderson Silva
- Last Submission Loss: Sep 22, 2012 to Jon Jones (Keylock)
- Last Decision Loss: Oct 21, 2006 to Dan Henderson
- Submission Victories by Method: Rear Naked Choke x2 (66.67%), Armbar 1x (33.33%)
- Submission Losses by Method: Keylock 1x (50%), Guillotine Choke 1x (50%)
- Fights in Brazil: 2 (0.625%)
- Wins in Brazil: 2 (0.91%)
- UFC Decision Victories: 0 (0%)
- Significant Strikes Per Minute: 1.41
- Striking Accuracy: 46%
- Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.16
- Significant Strikes Defended Percentage: 54%
- Average Takedown Attempts Per 15 Minutes: 1.29
- Takedown Accuracy: 60%
- Takedown Defense Percentage: 50%
- Average Submission Attempts Per 15 Minutes: 0.77
- Average Submission Completion Rate: 22.56%
- Most Significant Strikes Landed/Attempted In a Fight: 21/67 (Vs. Terry Martin, July 19, 2008)
- Total Fight Time: 258:59
Given the wear and tear Belfort’s had with over 8.5 hours of total fight time, tendency to slow down as fights go on, his lower significant strike defense percentage, and inability to win a decision in the UFC, I’m going to go ahead and predict that Luke Rockhold will win this fight by unanimous decision. Please feel free to debate amongst yourselves.
