For the second straight year, the UFC will have two title fights in Toronto. It will also be the third straight year that Jon Jones has to defend his title in Toronto. Those are some stats for now; I’ll let the great Justin Pierott handle the stats on the site. This is the preview for UFC 165 that also includes Renan Barao defending his interim bantamweight title against Eddie Wineland.
Five questions for UFC 165
While this card isn’t as stacked as the next three pay-per-view events, it does feature some intriguing matchups. Obviously the hype is surrounding Jones and how he’ll handle a fighter that is similar in stature in Alexander Gustafsson. The entire main card will be broken down into five questions as usual. It’s a pleasure to be joined by the president of the website in Jeremy Brand, who will break the main card down with me.
1. Khabib Nurmagomedov could be the next big star from the lightweight division. He’s bullied his way through all of his competition so far in the UFC. Pat Healy is one of the biggest and best lightweights in the world. Do you see Nurmagomedov taking Healy down at will or will Healy be the first fighter to truly test him for fifteen minutes?
Jeremy: I understand that Nurmagomedov is on an insanely huge run and is currently undefeated, but he’s got to hit a wall at some point and I think Healy is that wall. Since coming over to the UFC in early 2012, he has picked up four big wins against some good talent. When he faced Abel Trujillo at UFC 160, the Russian picked up a record of most takedowns in UFC history (21). Your question is will he be able to take down Healy at will – maybe, but I see Healy being able to do some great work off his back if that’s the case.
Healy is a very good grappler; we saw that against Jim Miller in his return fight with the organization. I believe this fight will go the distance and Healy will hand Nurmagomedov his first taste of defeat.
Allen: This is actually my favorite fight on the card. It was easily the toughest pick for me, due to both lightweights matching up so well against one another. Nurmagomedov has proven how good of a wrestler he is in his past performances, which is why this is the perfect matchup against one of the biggest lightweights in Healy. It’ll be a good test to see if both fighters can be a title contender in the lightweight division.
It will be a very difficult fight for Nurmagomedov, where it’s unlikely that he can control Healy on the ground for very long. Healy can absorb punishment and has excellent cardio to match Nurmagomedov’s pace. If he can avoid clinching and smother his takedown attempts early, then we may see Nurmagomedov get frustrated and possibly mentally crack. He won’t be able to get the takedown at will, but he should have some success if he mixes it up with his boxing. I’m expecting Healy to truly test him for fifteen minutes and this could very well end up in a split decision, along with fight of the night honors.
2. Francis Carmont has been on a quiet five-fight win streak in the UFC, due to his past two controversial victories. Do you think he matches up well with Costa Philippou? Many people are writing him off in this fight.
Jeremy: I am one of those people that are writing Carmont off in this fight. Yes he may be a fellow Canadian, but I was so outraged when the judge’s scorecards were read and he took home the split decision against Tom Lawlor back at UFC 154. There was absolutely NO WAY that he won that fight and his fight against Lorenz Larkin in April was just as close, yet he brought home that decision as well.
He’s currently on a ten fight win streak is pretty crazy in such a stacked division. He is 5-0 inside the UFC’s Octagon with wins against some decent talent; however Philippou is on a different level from those guys. He himself is on a five-fight winning streak, with his most recent a big TKO victory over the always-dangerous Tim Boetsch.
The one thing that could potentially harm Philippou is the layoff he’s had. His fight against Boetsch was in December 2012 and hasn’t fought since. He was expected to take on Jacare Souza in May, but was injured. So will we see the same Philippou that takes his opponents’ heads off? I don’t think so, but I believe we will see him being able to take home the judges nod.
Allen: His chances of winning are highly unlikely, but I’m not completely writing him off. If Carmont can use his size and get Philippou in the clinch or against the cage, he could very well win the fight. Even though he tries to out strike his opponents, he’ll be asking to get knocked out if he were to try to do the same with Philippou. What he needs is to constantly move, along with making the fight dirty and forcing Philippou to work out of a bad position.
His past two victories have been ugly, which hasn’t won him any new supporters. Still those victories earned a big fight here going up against someone, who is getting a lot of buzz from fans in Philippou. It’ll be tough to avoid his knockout power, but Carmont can’t stand around and think he can trade punches with him. It’ll come down to closing the distance and using his size to his advantage, especially against the cage.
3. Matt Mitrione and Brendan Schaub have both fell under the radar, after promising starts to their fighting career. Both fighters are considered well rounded, but who do you feel is more well rounded and a better finisher?
Jeremy: This is an interesting question, because they have taken on different style fighters. So to compare the two and tell you which one is more well rounded is very tough, but I will try.
Schaub started off his career at 4-0, which was when he entered the TUF house. He lost to Roy Nelson in the finals, but then went on to win four in a row with three of them by knockout. The organization then decided to test him and put him up against what many consider top ten opponents and he got knocked out. I feel Schaub is a top-20 heavyweight and will have to use those hybrid skills to become a top ten.
Mitrione started his career within the UFC, as a 0-0 fighter on TUF, which is very unique. He went on to win his first five fights; then much like Schaub was tested against some top tier talent and lost. Most recently he beat Phil De Fries by knockout, but on the rankings side of things De Fries is nowhere near the top.
Now if I’m looking at purely what they have done inside the Octagon and against whom then I would have to say Schaub is the better-rounded fighter, but Mitrione is the better finisher!
Allen: I’m going with Schaub as more well rounded because he’s more unpredictable with his attacks and has shown he can beat some top competition. Even though they are considered to be on the down side of their respective careers, Gabriel Gonzaga and Mirko Cro Cop are two tough opponents. Schaub has beaten them using wrestling, constant pressure, and counter striking. He prides himself on being well rounded, always in shape, and not relying on just one tool.
Mitrione doesn’t look for takedowns and tends to get wild at times with his striking, even though he is the better finisher. The same can be said for Schaub, who was reckless in his losses to Antonio Nogueira and Ben Rothwell. This is a massive fight for both fighters, who need to separate themselves from the pack of heavyweights that aren’t close to the top ten. Schaub is more well-rounded, which should benefit him by utilizing his wrestling and taking advantage of Mitrione’s weak ground game.
4. When you look at the bantamweight division, you think of Dominick Cruz, Renan Barao, Urijah Faber, and now Michael McDonald. Eddie Wineland isn’t really being considered as a major threat towards Barao’s title. How do you like his chances and is he better off taking the fight to the ground?
Jeremy: A fight on the ground would benefit Wineland that is if he can get it there. He has to be able to check Barao’s vicious leg-kicks and get inside to even have a chance at getting the Brazilian to the canvas.
Wineland hasn’t won via submission since WEC 40 back in 2009, which proves that his skill-set is on the feet. Since that submission victory he has picked up three knockouts, but the majority of his victories have come by decision.
I see the leg-kicks being the difference maker for Barao in this fight and they should see him cruise to a victory.
Allen: My issue with Wineland has always been not putting his hands up and relying too much on his head movement. He hasn’t been knocked out in his UFC career yet, but he’s been tagged several times. With point striking being a common trait for fighters lately, it could eventually come back to haunt him. His footwork is excellent and his right jab is lighting quick, which he always uses to his advantage. I’m expecting him to pressure Barao early and to control the octagon.
Barao is so well-rounded though and Wineland’s major weakness has been his submission defense. Despite Wineland being an excellent wrestler, Barao hasn’t been taken down in his career and has shown how he can finish fights in his guard. Wineland needs to use his speed and constantly be aggressive on his feet. He may as well keep it standing rather than try to control a black belt in jiu-jitsu on the ground. Barao is so elusive and can finish the fight in an instant on the ground. Out of all the fights on the card, this seems to be the most predictable and I’ll be absolutely shocked if Wineland pulls off the upset. Barao seems to be unbeatable right now.
5. The marketing for the light heavyweight championship fight can be considered misguided. Everyone has clamored over Alexander Gustafsson’s size and how he is the perfect matchup for Jones. Is he really the perfect matchup and do you see him lasting long against Jones’ frantic pace? We’ve seen him slow down in fights before.
Jeremy: If anyone has read my Twitter or Facebook, then you will know that I am a big believer in Alexander Gustafsson. I don’t think it’s misguided at all, he is the first fighter to have the size and reach to match up a little differently against Jones than anyone else has. However will it really make that much of a difference?
Jones is at the top of the food chain for a reason by stopping everyone that the UFC has put in his path and done it with ease. “The Mauler” will be able to withstand some of the early onslaught just because of the distance he can keep, but Jones will find a way probably inside in the later rounds to put this fight in his favor.
I don’t think Gus will be able to stop Jones, but I do think he will be able to take him in to deep waters.
Allen: The advertising has been a bit silly, but I understand what they are trying to promote. Jones is an athletic freak with an incredible reach, who may have met his match against the tallest light heavyweight in Gustafsson. I’m expecting an early barrage of takedown attempts by Jones. He’ll test Gustafsson’s takedown defense early and make this fight ugly, similar to his past fight with Chael Sonnen. Unlike the Sonnen fight, he’ll be testing his opponent rather than proving a point. Don’t expect Jones to be that wary of Gustafsson’s reach. He can get low enough for a takedown to avoid it.
If Gustafsson can defend the takedown and utilize his jab, he may be able to get Jones flustered. It’ll take constant movement and keeping his distance for him to knock out Jones. This fight may come to picking the right spots, since Jones is very patient as a striker and uses leg kicks to set up his next attack. That could very well lead to Gustafsson rushing in, which leads to Jones landing a devastating front kick, elbow, or an uppercut. We’ve seen in the past that Gustafsson’s defense has been shaky by leaving his lead hand low and jaw out.
In the end, Jones’ wrestling will be the difference maker similar to most of his fights. Whether it’s by using his patented vicious elbows from the top or knees against the cage, Jones will be all over Gustafsson. This is the perfect matchup on paper, but this isn’t anywhere near the perfect matchup in an actual fight. The perfect matchup for Jones will be against Daniel Cormier, who is the only fighter that has a legitimate chance in ending Jones’ dominant title reign due to being the best wrestler in MMA.
Allen: The title fight has some intrigue, due to there still being uncertainty about Gustafsson. Has he shown his entire repertoire or has his lack of fights hindered him from showing off everything? The main card looks mostly predictable, but nobody can deny that there is some intrigue. I’m really looking forward to seeing if Nurmagomedov can hang with Healy. Other than that, I’m expecting a decent pay-per-view full of one-sided affairs.
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