UFC on FOX 10 goes down this Saturday night from the United Center in Chicago, Illinois.
MMASucka Staff Predictions: UFC on FOX 10
Benson Henderson returns to the Octagon for the first time since losing his belt to Anthony Pettis at UFC 164 this past August. He will face-off in the main event against Josh Thomson. In the co-main event heavyweights Stipe Miocic and Gabriel Gonzaga will go to battle.
Rounding out the four-fight FOX main card are Darren Elkins vs. Jeremy Stephens and Donald Cerrone vs. Adriano Martins.
As always the staff at MMASucka.com will make their predictions be heard. As you can see from our overall running scores, some of us are much better than others. But without further ado, check out the MMASucka Staff Predictions.
Justin – 14-8
Allen – 12-5
Suraj – 7-6
Henry – 7-6
Jeremy – 11-11
Thinesh – 3-1
JP – 1-4
Callum – 0-0
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Benson Henderson vs. Josh Thomson
Jeremy: I look at this bout and it’s extremely intriguing. Josh Thomson has slowly crept back up the ladder and a win over Benson Henderson would catapult him right in to contender status. Thomson is the underdog and I believe rightfully so. My pick is Benson Henderson via Unanimous Decision.
Allen: This is going to be an exhilirating chess match. Both fighters are well-rounded and don’t have any glaring weaknesses. The big question is if Henderson will be more aggressive knowing that he’s not the champion anymore. He knows he needs to start finishing fights and making an impression in order to ever face Anthony Pettis again. I’m expecting him to smother Thomson in the clinch or take him down to set up a submission. People are writing Thomson off, which is a bit harsh. He’s still very dangerous and is arguably one of the best strikers that Henderson has ever faced in his UFC career. In the end, Henderson has better cardio and will land more significant strikes to wear down Thomson. Benson Henderson via Unanimous Decision
Thinesh: Fantastic match-up of styles, these are the sort of fights fans crave for. Benson Henderson is entering this bout on the heels of losing his strap to Anthony Pettis, so he’s definitely itching to get back into contenders’ status. Although Thomson does pose legitimate knockout power with his array of strikes, I think Henderson has an edge in terms of wrestling and I think he’ll use it to pick up a decision victory. Benson Henderson via Unanimous Decision.
Justin: I went over this in my latest Stats for Suckas piece, and it’s a really close match-up. Still, with Bendo being the better wrestler, I give him the edge. Benson Henderson via Unanimous Decision.
Suraj: Bendo is a championship caliber fighter who had a few things to work on before he fought Pettis. Showtime’s athleticism and creativity has posed problems for the previous champion in the past, and he learned the hard way that something needed to change. Thomson is a true veteran of the sport and has taken out a top notch list of fighters. His knockout ability and kickboxing will force Bendo to work on his striking and finishing ability. Why? Because he could easily be finished by Thomson too. Both fighters have championship skill and this will be a great fight to decide the number one contender. In the end, I believe Bendo is one of the most strong-headed fighters and is very good at riding the tide. Matchups are a huge part of MMA, but defeating Melendez gives Bendo an edge, simply because Thomson has lost to “El Nino” twice. He should be able to deal with Thomson and get his name back into title contention. Benson Henderson via Unanimous Decision.
Callum: Henderson just has more about his game than Thomson, and time is not on the side of the former Strikeforce champ. Though Thomson only has five wins by knockout I think his best chance is on the feet, but I think Henderson will be a step ahead. Benson Henderson via Unanimous Decision.
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Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Stipe Miocic
Jeremy: This will be a clash of two monsters in the heavyweight division. Gonzaga is coming off two first round knockout victories and Miocic is coming off a decision victory against Roy Nelson. The power is there for both of these guys, it is just going to be a case of who connects first and I believe it will be Gonzaga. Gabriel Gonzaga via first round knockout.
Allen: Gonzaga is very dangerous and nobody should ever write him off. He has knockout power in both his punches and kicks. Sometimes he relies on his boxing too much, which leads to him becoming one-dimensional. Another puzzling thing about him is that he rarely looks for takedowns despite his excellence on the ground. Miocic is one of the few bright prospects in the heavyweight division and keeps on evolving. Gonzaga has struggled against athletic heavyweights in the past. I’m expecting Miocic to utilize different angles to land different combinations to pick him apart. Precise boxing and speed are two attributes that Miocic will overwhelm Gonzaga with on his way to victory. Stipe Miocic via second round TKO.
Thinesh: I can’t see Gonzaga gaining a victory in this one. The Brazilian has struggled against taller fighters in the past and against an athletic combatant like Stipe Miocic, it’s not going to be any different. Miocic showcased his superiority in his victory over Roy Nelson, where he displayed his Boxing skills and footwork to perfection. Gonzaga does have knockout power but I believe Miocic will use his range to get out of the power shots and just work his striking from there. Stipe Miocic via second round TKO.
Justin: I will always have a soft spot for “Napao,” but I think he’s going to have to settle for a gatekeeper role in the UFC’s heavyweight division. It’s not the worst place to be, but it does put him into situations such as this. I do not believe he has what it takes to deal with the footwork of Miocic, and I expect Stipe to punch his way to a third round stoppage. Stipe Miocic via third round TKO.
Suraj: I love Gabriel Gonzaga, LOVE. He is one of my all-time favorites and he truly is an underdog specialist. No one will ever forget Mirko Cro Cop’s second fight in the UFC, especially Crop Cop. Gonzaga has proven his skill but only losing to some of the best heavyweights in the world. However, Stipe Miocic could be one of the best up-and-coming heavyweight fighters in the UFC, with Travis Browne sharing that crown. He’s a golden gloves boxer, NCAA D-1 wrestler and freak athlete. The only way I see Miocic losing is if Gonzaga can get him to the ground, and frankly, that would be quite surprising. Both fighters are very good at takedowns and takedown defense, which leads me to believe this fight will stay standing. Not to mention, both fighters have deadly finishing ability which guarantees this fight will not go the distance. To be quite honest, I would not feel bad if I was wrong. Stipe Miocic via first round TKO.
Callum: Miocic is younger and more heavily favoured, but I have reservations about his game plan and approach inside the cage. I just have this nagging feeling that Miocic will be slow to get going and invite Gonzaga in, and that’s a dangerous place to have him. One misplaced takedown and you find yourself in a very bad position. Gabriel Gonzaga via knockout.
***
Darren Elkins vs. Jeremy Stephens
Jeremy: Stephens made his featherweight debut in May of 2013 and won his first two bouts, while Elkins lone loss in his last seven fights came against divisional standout Chad Mendes. This fight will be high pace and definitely action packed. Jeremy Stephens via unanimous decision.
Allen: This is the toughest pick to make on the card. Stephens seems rejuvenated at featherweight, after being inconsistent at lightweight for most of his career. Elkins is an excellent grappler though, who knows how to close the distance and smother his opponent as long as it’s not against a great wrestler like Chad Mendes. Stephens has serious power, but his takedown defense is decent at best. It will be a close contest that will come down to ground control and significant strikes. Elkins will do just enough in top position to secure the win. Darren Elkins via unanimous decision.
Thinesh: While Stephens has made a successful transition to 145-lbs having gone 2-0, there’s a high chance that his striking abilities will be neutralized by Elkins in this tilt. Elkins is your traditional grinder and has nullified good strikers like Diego Brandao and Steven Siler in the past, so he should gather a couple of takedowns en route to another Unanimous Decision victory here. Darren Elkins via Unanimous Decision.
Justin: As distasteful as “Lil’ Heathen’s” outside-the-cage actions may have been or may continue to be, he is a solid talent in the UFC’s featherweight division. Still, he’s had mixed success against grinders in the past, with wins over the likes of Team Alpha Male’s Justin Buchholz, but losses to folks like Gleison Tibau. How he’ll handle Darren Elkins ultimately remains to be seen, but I put the 29 year-old Elkins into the Tibau category at this stage of the game. Darren Elkins via Unanimous Decision.
Suraj: This will be an interesting fight for a few reasons. First, both fighters have yet to prove themselves against the UFC’s best. Elkins is 6-1 as a featherweight and has only lost to top-level fighter Chad Mendes. Stephens, on the other hand, recently made his featherweight debut and has gone 2-0 since making the drop. Both fighters have knockout ability but this fight will be a grinding match. If you can take Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone the distance, you’re probably pretty good, Stephens has age and experience on his side too. In the end, it should be a pretty close fight. Jeremy Stephens via Split Decision.
Callum: Jeremy Stephens is 2-0 since coming down to 145 and really seems to have found his stride. His knockout of Rony Jason was a thing of beauty, and I think he will be able to keep it on the feet and get the finish. If he does allow himself to get taken down this fight could slow down really fast with Elkins’ smothering approach, so look for Stephens to push the pace. Jeremy Stephens via Knockout.
***
Donald Cerrone vs. Adriano Martins
Jeremy: Many people this week have been talking about a potential match-up between Cerrone and Cole Miller, however “The Cowboy” will have to get past Adriano Martins and then make a drop to a new weight class. Martins isn’t someone one should overlook, but I believe Cerrone will come out of this one on top. Donald Cerrone via second round TKO.
Allen: I’m still struggling to understand this matchup, but Martins does seem like an intriguing prospect. It’s just odd to see him fight against a top ten lightweight in the UFC. Cerrone is prone to having off nights and doesn’t tend to care about his opponent’s strengths. That may play into Martins’ hands based on how dangerous he is on the ground. In the end, Cerrone will overwhelm him with leg kicks and takedowns. When he’s focused, Cerrone is the aggressor and doesn’t stop till his opponent is finished unless it’s KJ Noons who can withstand insane amounts of punishment. After saying he was “broke” in an interview, I’m expecting him to be focused in this one. Donald Cerrone via third round KO.
Thinesh: I just don’t know which Cerrone is going to turn up on fight night. The fact that he’s had his fair share of “off nights” of late makes this bout a little bit harder to foresee. The majority of Martins’ losses, on the other hand, have come via decision so Cerrone may find it a bit harder to finish him. Whatever it is, Martins has a chance, but I’m not going to bet against “Cowboy” who can be absolutely ruthless if he’s on his game. Donald Cerrone via Unanimous Decision.
Justin: Martins is pretty hard-nosed, no doubt about it. But fighters don’t come much harder than “Cowboy,” and I do not believe the Brazilian will have what it takes to keep up with the dynamic Cerrone. Yes, he has his off-nights, but never bet against a man fighting to keep his ranch. Don’t be surprised if the Jackson’s MMA product – who actually has 14 submission victories compared to 2 by stoppage – pulls out another fight-ending choke in the 3rd round. Donald Cerrone via third round submission.
Suraj: There are only a few people that can give Donald Cerrone a run for his money. Considering his defeats as an MMA fighter, he only loses to truly great fighters. Not taking anything away from Adriano Martins, but he has not faced competition similar to the “Cowboy”. He is on a six-fight win streak but only one of those fights took place in the UFC. In terms of skill, Martins has yet to be submitted in his MMA career, which will be a problem for Cerrone, as 14 of his 21 victories have come by submission. Another concern with Cerrone is he has not studied his opponent, which could be the reason he loses this fight. In the end, Martins has not faced an opponent like Cerrone and the increase in skill and experience will prove to be too much. My personal love for Cerrone has nothing to do with this, I believe Cowboy is just the better fighter. Donald Cerrone via Unanimous Decision.
Callum: This one is a no brainer, and a really lop sided fight. Martins will put up more of a fight than many expect, but Cerrone’s experience and solid chin will help him overcome the striking of Martins. Martins has never been submitted, so I see this as a comfortable decision for the Cowboy. Donald Cerrone via Unanimous Decision.
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