Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC 169: Urijah Faber vs Renan Barao 2.
Stats for Suckas: Urijah Faber vs Renan Barao 2
|
Urijah Faber |
Renan Barao |
| Age | 34 | 26 |
| Camp | Team Alpha Male | Nova Uniao |
| Record | 30-6 | 31-1, 1 N/C |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Reach | 69.0″ | 70.0″ |
| Win Percentage | 7 (T)KOs (23%) 17 Submissions (57%) 5 Decisions (17%) 1 DQ (3%) |
7 (T)KOs (23%) 14 Submissions (45%) 10 Decisions (32%) |
| Loss Percentage | 2 (T)KOs (33%) 4 Decisions (67%) |
1 Decision (100%) |
| Last (T)KO Victory | Oct. 28th, 2006, over Bibiano Fernandes | Sep. 21st, 2013, over Eddie Wineland |
| Last Submission Victory | Dec. 14th, 2013, over Michael McDonald | Feb. 16th, 2013, over Michael McDonald |
| Last Decision Victory | Aug. 17th, 2013, over Iuri Alcantara | July 21st, 2012, over Urijah Faber |
| Last (T)KO Loss | Nov. 5th, 2008, to Mike Thomas Brown | N/A |
| Last Submission Loss | N/A | N/A |
| Last Decision Loss | July 21, 2012, to Renan Barao | Apr. 14th, 2005, to Joao Paulo Rodrigues de Souza |
| Submission Victories by Method | RNC 8 x (47%) Guillotine 7x (41%) Punches 2x (12%) |
RNC 6x (44%) Triangle 2x (14%) Armbar 2x (14%) Arm Triangle 1x (7%) Kimura 1x (7%) Kneebar 1x (7%) Ankle Lock 1x (7%) |
| Submission Losses by method | N/A | N/A |
| Rematches won | 2 | 1 |
| Most guard passes in a fight | 4 | 4 |
| Decision Victories in the UFC | 2 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.71 | 3.66 |
| Striking Accuracy | 43% | 36% |
| Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 2.24 | 2.33 |
| Striking Defense | 65% | 67% |
| Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min. | 1.55 | 1.65 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 36% | 55% |
| Takedown Defense Percentage | 59% | 95% |
| Average Submission per 15 Min. | 1.11 | 0.9 |
| Average Submission Completion Rate | 57.39% | 75.34% |
| Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight | 95, on June 1st, 2008, against Jens Pulver | 104, on Feb. 4th, 2012, over Scott Jorgenson |
| Total Fight Time | 5 hrs, 53 min, 13 sec | 5 hrs, 9 min, 43 sec |
It’s been a couple of years since Faber and Barao first squared off for the UFC interim Bantamweight Title, and in that span, both men have been racking up the victories. Faber especially has looked like a man possessed, dispatching contenders in a quest to get another shot at the belt. That’s not to say that Barao hasn’t dispatched his opponents in dramatic fashion either, just that Faber’s gone through more opponents, and choked most of them out. Both men are experienced, and highly skilled, but I haven’t seen the development I want from Faber to pick him in this fight.
“The California Kid” has still not shown much of a left hand, and I just think it’s out of habit. I’m sure Duane Ludwig has been working on jabs and parries with the left hand with Faber – just as he’s been working with everybody at Team Alpha Male – but for some reason, Urijah still only really uses his right hand when he’s punching. Against kickers like Renan Barao and his teammate Jose Aldo, it’s cost him. Lacking an effective jab, the Alpha of Team Alpha Male effectively secedes control of distance to opponents skilled at kicking, preventing him from getting in close and creating the scrambles he needs to get on top and catch a choke. This could again cost him dearly, especially if the Barao nearly decapitated Eddie Wineland shows up again. So, I’m going to have to pick Renan Barao, and he’ll win again by decision.
