After Thursday’s huge announcement about the Nevada Athletic State Commission banning TRT, it was a major step towards the right direction for MMA. Then later that night, it was to no one’s surprise that Vitor Belfort was taken out of the title fight against Chris Weidman at UFC 173. I’m not going to discuss the same repetitive evaluation of Belfort and his questionable behavior over the past weekend. Right now, he is out of the picture and will have to adapt to training without using TRT.
Lyoto Machida will prove to be more of a difficult challenge for Chris Weidman than Vitor Belfort
The middleweight division is still stacked with world-class Brazilian fighters and it was no surprise who replaced Belfort. Lyoto Machida will step in and present a unique challenge. While he hasn’t fought the very best at 185 pounds, he’s looked outstanding in both fights. There seems to be this perception that he’s been rejuvenated by moving down to middleweight. I don’t see that perception, but it does seem like fans aren’t as critical of him as they were at this time last year.
Most people are finally accepting Machida for who he is as a fighter. They’ve accepted that his styles relies on patience and technique. His footwork is excellent, his counter striking is arguably the best in MMA, and his left high kick is starting to become lethal. His knockout of Mark Munoz showed that, along with landing that kick several times against Gegard Mousasi. In the past, he never really had a signature finishing strike. It was just a variety of different counter strikes in catching his opponent off guard. The left high kick may be it, especially after how many times he used it against Mousasi.
Of course, there will always be some people that will call him boring. They will say that he’s a channel changer, which is absolutely ridiculous. What they need to understand is that Machida will be more of a difficult challenge than Belfort. The fight may not have the story behind it, where it would be Belfort’s first fight without being able to use TRT. Even if the ban hadn’t occurred, I believe that he still wouldn’t be able to use it. Nevada has always had a strict policy and he has failed a drug test before.
From a stylistic standpoint, Machida is more of a threat to Weidman compared to Belfort. He may not have the explosiveness that Belfort has, but you won’t see him fade after the first round. It’s well documented that Belfort tends to fade, when a fight goes into the later rounds. Machida is a far better grappler as well, which tends to go unnoticed when talking about his strengths.
You rarely see Machida really get taken down. Even when he does, it won’t take long before he’s back up. Phil Davis couldn’t keep him grounded in his fabricated victory. Machida has explosive hips and his stance has proven to be a roadblock for wrestlers, since he tends to stay low. That’s why you saw wrestlers like Ryan Bader and Dan Henderson not really attempt many takedowns when they fought him. They could never get a good angle to pull off an effective takedown. His stance and movement are the key elements to keeping the fight standing. That will be a major challenge for Weidman, especially as the fight goes longer.
Weidman has dominated his opposition in his past four fights. You can argue all day about whether or not, his second win over Silva can be considered a win. In the end, Weidman dominated the first round and was in control for the entire fight. The question now will be how does he deal with someone that’s both an excellent striker and solid grappler? This is going to be a difficult puzzle to solve.
One weakness I’ve noticed with Weidman is that his punches are usually straight. There isn’t much of a variety with his punches. Of course, he’s shown that he can use elbows to finish his opponent. The knockout of Mark Munoz will always be memorable. Still doesn’t throw many uppercuts or hooks. If you keep throwing straight punches against someone with such great movement like Machida, you’ll come up empty on most occasions. He’s going to really have to dedicate himself to striking in preparation for his title defense. He may also need to start using more kicks to keep Machida on his heels.
He showed great maturity in his victories over Silva. That should bode well against fighting someone, who wants you to become over aggressive and leave yourself open. We’ve seen fighters like Rashad Evans and Ryan Bader become impatient and would fully charge into Machida. They would end up regretting that motion, after they ran into his counter right hand. Weidman will need to maintain his composure similar to what he did against Silva.
One potential backstory to this fight will be how much Machida trains with Silva. It’s no secret that they are close friends and recent videos of Silva training have already been posted online. Even though Machida likes to throw kicks more to the head and body rather than the legs of his opponent, I’m sure he’ll avoid throwing any leg kick that could be telegraphed. Leg kicks can still play an integral part in breaking down an opponent. It can also play a part in being taken down or an potential serious injury.
This is the fight I’m most looking forward to so far in 2014. Belfort did provide some intrigue based off his performances in 2013, but he isn’t as well rounded as Machida. Belfort can be taken down and tends to rush in wildly. There will be openings for Weidman to grab a single or double leg to take Belfort down consistently. Also the looming factor of how would he fight without TRT would be overshadowing the fight itself. I’m sick of hearing about TRT as much as the next person. Even though I’m thankful to be a part of the media, it does become irritating to hear about the same story become so repetitive.
There won’t be much of a story here. Besides Machida possibly becoming only the third fighter ever to win a UFC championship in two weight classes, what story is needed? Weidman proved him himself against the greatest fighter of all time, although their will always be people that say those weren’t “legitimate wins”. They could also bring up how Silva’s age has caught up to him. What will be the excuse if he beats Machida, who has looked outstanding at 185 pounds and is practically on a five-fight win streak? (His loss to Davis was as legitimate as Hendricks loss to St. Pierre.)
I’m not sure if I’d go to the extent of calling this a super fight, as Chael Sonnen recently stated. This is still a tremendous fight that has Weidman trying to solve another puzzle that not many fighters have solved. People tend to forget that Machida has only lost four times in his career, so he’s not very far off from Silva in terms of winning fights. What will happen if he can’t take down Machida? He may have to try to overpower him and punish him in the clinch; similar to what Jon Jones did . While Jones did catch him with a counter left hook, it was mostly his dominance in the clinch that finished Machida off in the second round.
There are so many different variables to this fight that can occur. I’ll be shocked if Machida fatigues or gets taken down repeatedly, which are two elements that I would expect to happen if Belfort couldn’t finish Weidman in the first round. A compelling fight will always outweigh a compelling story in the end. Jon Jones versus Alexander Gustafsson was the latest example of that last year. You can fully expect that now with the new main event matchup at UFC 173.
Twitter: @Allen_Strk
