Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC 171: Johny Hendrix vs. Robbie Lawler for the vacant UFC Welterweight Title.
Stats for Suckas: Johny Hendricks Vs. Robbie Lawler
Statistics |
Johny Hendricks |
Robbie Lawler |
| Age | 30 | 31 |
| Camp | Team Takedown | American Top Team |
| Record | 15-2 | 22-9, 1 N/C |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Reach | 69.0″ | 74.0″ |
| Win Percentage | 8 (T)KO (53%) 1 Submission (7%) 6 Decisions (40%) |
18 (T)KOs (82%) 1 Submission (5%) 3 Decisions (14%) |
| Loss Percentage | 2 Decisions (100%) | 1 (T)KO (11%) 5 Submissions (56%) 3 Decisions (33%) |
| Last (T)KO Victory | Nov. 17th, 2012, over Martin Kampmann | July 27th, 2013, over Bobby Voelker |
| Last Submission Victory | Mar. 15th, 2008, over Richard Gamble | Sep. 17th, 2005, over Jeremy Brown |
| Last Decision Victory | Mar. 16th, 2013, over Carlos Condit | Nov. 16th, 2013, over Rory MacDonald |
| Last (T)KO Loss | N/A | Apr. 2nd, 2004, to Nick Diaz |
| Last Submission Loss | N/A | Jan. 29th, 2011, to Ronaldo Souza |
| Last Decision Loss | Nov. 16th, 2013, to Georges St. Pierre | July 14th, 2012, to Lorenz Larkin |
| Submission Victories by Method | Brabo Choke 1x (100%) | Armbar 1x (100%) |
| Submission Losses by method | N/A | Guillotine 1x (20%) Triangle Choke 1x (20%) Arm Triangle 1x (20%) RNC 1x (20%) Injury 1x (20%) |
| Wins against Southpaws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses to Southpaws | 1 | 1 |
| Decision Victories in the UFC | 4 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.14 | 2.91 |
| Striking Accuracy | 49% | 43% |
| Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 3.21 | 2.85 |
| Striking Defense | 57% | 64% |
| Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min. | 4.77 | 1.28 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 50% | 68% |
| Takedown Defense Percentage | 61% | 63% |
| Average Submission per 15 Min. | 0.52 | Statistically insignificant |
| Average Submission Completion Rate | 17.61% | N/A, see above |
| Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight | 85, on Nov. 15th, 2013, against Georges St. Pierre | 69, on May 31st, 2008, against Scott Smith |
| Total Fight Time | 2 hrs, 43 min, 48 sec | 4 hrs, 9 min, 34 sec |
Now, one thing that might catch people off guard about this fight is the low number of fellow Southpaws that both Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler have faced. However, there are certainly differences in the level of competition. While the lone win over a southpaw on Johny Hendricks’ record was at the expense of the underwhelming Ricardo Funch, Lawler’s pair of wins were over Aaron Riley and – most tellingly to my eyes – Matt Lindland. Their losses come to Rick Story and Nick Diaz, respectively. To me, that says that Lawler has not only won against superior competition in his own stance (Lindland), but also lost to higher quality opposition (Diaz). Additionally, Johny Hendricks has shown himself to be the more hittable of the two, absorbing nearly an entire significant strike per minute more than his Californian opponent.
Lawler may not be the better wrestler in terms of credentials, but his higher accuracy on that front is brought about by being choosier in his attempts. Hendricks, for his part, spams takedown attempts, and that could be a mistake depending on how he times things. Both men have a close TDD percentage, so we’ll call that a wash.
Before I looked at the data, I had a strong feeling that Johny Hendricks was going to take this fight. Now, after seeing the information, I can’t help but pick Robbie Lawler to take this in a close decision and become the new UFC Welterweight Champion.
