Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi: Roy Nelson vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.
Statistics |
Roy Nelson |
A. Rodrigo Nogueira |
| Age | 37 | 37 |
| Camp | Country Club | Team Nogueira |
| Record | 19-9 | 37-8-1 (1 N/C) |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Reach | 73.0″ | 77.0″ |
| Win Percentage | 12 (T)KOs (63%) 5 Submissions (26%) 2 Decisions (11%) |
3 (T)KOs (9%) 21 Submissions (62%) 10 Decisions (29%) |
| Loss Percentage | 1 (T)KO (11%) 8 Decisions (89%) |
2 (T)KOs (25%) 2 Submissions (25%) 4 Decisions 50%) |
| Last (T)KO Victory | Apr. 27th, 2013, over Cheick Kongo | July 26th, 2005, over Pawel Nastula |
| Last Submission Victory | July 22, 2006, over Jerome Smith | Oct. 13th, 2012, over Dave Herman |
| Last Decision Victory | July 16th, 2007, over Shane Ott | Aug. 29th, 2009, over Randy Couture |
| Last (T)KO Loss | Oct. 4th, 2008, against Andrei Arlovski | Feb. 20th, 2010, to Cain Velasquez |
| Last Submission Loss | N/A | June 8th, 2013, to Fabricio Werdum |
| Last Decision Loss | Oct. 19th, 2013, to Daniel Cormier | Sep. 10th, 2006, to Josh Barnett |
| Submission Victories by Method | RNC 2x (40%) Arm Triangle 1x (20%) Hammerlock 1x (20%) Punches 1x (20%) |
Armbar 11x (52%) Triangle 3x (13%) Anaconda 2x (10%) RNC 1x (5%) Keylock 1x (5%) Crucifix 1x (5%) Guillotine 1x (5%) Arm Triangle 1x (5%) |
| Submission Losses by method | N/A | Kimura 1x (50%) Armbar 1x (50%) |
| Most Significant Strikes Absorbed in a Single Fight | 130 | 79 |
| Fewest Significant Strikes in a Victory | 2 | 1 |
| Decision Victories in the UFC | 0 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.14 | 1.85 |
| Striking Accuracy | 33% | 42% |
| Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 5.07 | 2.2 |
| Striking Defense | 48% | 57% |
| Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min. | 0.51 | 1.33 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 18% | 33% |
| Takedown Defense Percentage | 58% | 36% |
| Average Submission per 15 Min. | 0.26 | 2.53 |
| Average Submission Completion Rate | 97.13% | 28.89% |
| Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight | 40, against Junior Dos Santos, Aug. 7th, 2010 | 69, on Dec. 31st, 2006, against Josh Barnett |
| Total Fight Time | 3 hrs, 57 min, 35 sec | 7 hrs, 11 min, 2 sec |
Despite the all the accolades heaped upon Nelson for his grappling abilities, he sure doesn’t use them much. However, if he wants to get a win over “Big Nog,” it may be his best path to victory. “Big Country” – in my mind, at least – does not have the footwork or striking defense necessary to eke out a decision over the perpetually fast-aging Nogueira. Nelson eats over twice as many significant strikes as he throws, and even if he’s got the chin to stay upright, it doesn’t help in the eyes of the judges. Expect “Minotauro” to eke out a unanimous decision
