One of the main feel good stories in 2013 was the resurgence of Robbie Lawler. He found his comfort zone, as a welterweight and showed that he can still compete with the best fighters in the world. When most people thought it was inevitable that Rory MacDonald was going to earn the next title shot, he dropped him with a right hook and pulverized him throughout the third round on his way to a mild upset victory. While all the attention is on Lawler coming off the memorable championship fight against Johny Hendricks. People have started to forget about Jake Ellenberger in the UFC’s most stacked division.
You hear it all the time about how a long layoff will usually result in a fighter being forgotten about, unless you’re a monumental figure. It’s rather unfortunate because Ellenberger is truly one of the best welterweights in the world. His resume goes unnoticed at times, due to being one of the more quiet fighters in a stellar division. He hasn’t had to go through a career resurgence like Lawler or Matt Brown. He’s not built like a cartoon super hero like Hector Lombard or Tyron Woodley. Nor does he make headlines on a weekly basis like Nick Diaz.
There isn’t much of a story to Ellenberger other than being most successful in the UFC. People tend to forget that he’s 8-3 in the UFC, which includes a 6 fight-winning streak at one point. He was the first fighter ever to knock out Jake Shields. That may not sound stellar now, due to Shields being released. Still it’s well documented how talented Shields is, along with him being so resilient and durable.
Many people are likely favoring Lawler to win, due to his momentum and how he can end the fight with one strike. That is a justifiable reason, although overlooking Ellenberger completely would be an impractical decision. One of the many transgressions that people do in picking fights is completely basing their opinion off the fighter’s last fight. They would do that rather than focus on the actual matchup at hand. We all remember how disappointing Ellenberger’s performance was against MacDonald.
He couldn’t close the distance efficiently and was hit by jabs on a consistent basis. It wasn’t the typical Ellenberger fight, where he’s charging forward and landing the rapid one-twos that were used to seeing. In his loss to Martin Kampmann, he was caught by a short right hand that stifled him. That led to Kampmann securing a clinch and landing two knees in earning a knockout victory. You have to wonder if rangy strikers are possibly his kryptonite.
Lawler’s reach (74″) is only one inch higher than his reach. That certainly won’t be a difference maker, but Lawler knows how to utilize his jab. He didn’t use it enough against Hendricks and should certainly pick up on his miscue from re-watching the fight. His hand speed is outstanding, which is one of the main reasons why he’s so dangerous.That is why it seems to be a wise decision for Ellenberger to train with Edmond Tarverdyan, who is one of the most respected striking coaches in the world. In past interviews, I’ve heard Edmond talk about how much he emphasizes fighters to work on their boxing. He works on all levels of striking, but boxing seems to be his main criteria.
Volume striking and head movement are two main attributes that will be needed for Ellenberger to bounce back. Hendricks utilized the first part well, but still struggles to move his head or even cover up particularly well. There is only so much punishment you can take against a top-level striker in Lawler. Even though he’s one of the better wrestlers in the division, I’m sure Elleneberger is confident in his striking, where he can be versatile and not be dependent on trying to put Lawler on his back.
Another potential difference maker will be how Lawler reacts to coping with a faster opponent. In his return to the UFC, we’ve seen him face either wrestlers or boxing oriented fighetrs. Josh Koscheck and Bobby Voelker aren’t as explosive as they once were. Even though Hendricks striking looked crisper against Lawler, the amount of weight he puts on after weigh-ins seems to hinder his speed.
For a good half of his career, Lawler was fighting at middleweight. If you look at his resume, there isn’t a fighter that has the speed and well-roundedness that Ellenberger has. The speed divergence could be a massive issue, especially with how successful his double-leg has proven out to be. If Ellenberger doesn’t get careless or even complacent in the last round (it occurred in his victory over Diego Sanchez), he could have his way in what would be a massive win for his career.
It has been ten months since his abysmal performance against MacDonald. He knows how high the stakes are for someone in his position. The fight could very well come down to him simply moving around consistently and not getting duped into a stand-up slugfest. Hendricks was very fortunate in surviving that onslaught in the third and fourth round, after trying to stand and trade with Lawler. I have my doubts that Ellenberger’s chin could be resistant to that much damage. Thankfully in his case, he’s always had a high fight IQ.
On a card headlined by two likely one-sided affairs, this is the fight that will get fans out of their chairs. While the styles may contrast, both have a plethora of highlight reel moments. This will be an outstanding fight and we should see Ellenberger come out ready to push the pace. His loss to McDonald was nothing more than just an anomaly. It’s time for skeptics to move on from that and be ready to embrace this exciting match-up.
Twitter: @Allen_Strk
