Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC 173: TJ Dillashaw vs. Renan Barao for the UFC Bantamweight Title.
Statistics |
T.J. Dillashaw |
Renan Barao |
| Age | 28 | 26 |
| Camp | Team Alpha Male | Nova Uniao |
| Record | 9-2 | 31-1, 1 N/C |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Reach | 68.0″ | 70.0″ |
| Win Percentage | 3 (T)KO (33.3%) 3 Submissions (33.3%) 3 Decisions (33.3%) |
7 (T)KOs (23%) 14 Submissions (45%) 10 Decisions (32%) |
| Loss Percentage | 1 (T)KO (50%) 1 Decision (50%) |
1 Decision (100%) |
| Last (T)KO Victory | Apr. 20th, 2013, over Hugo Viana | Feb. 1st, 2014, over Urijah Faber |
| Last Submission Victory | July 11th, 2012, over Vaughn Lee | Feb. 16th, 2013, over Michael McDonald |
| Last Decision Victory | Jan. 15th, 2014, over Mike Easton | July 21st, 2012, over Urijah Faber |
| Last (T)KO Loss | Dec. 3rd, 2011, to John Dodson | N/A |
| Last Submission Loss | N/A | N/A |
| Last Decision Loss | Oct. 9th, 2013, to Rafael Assuncao | Apr. 14th, 2005, to Joao Paulo Rodrigues de Souza |
| Submission Victories by Method | RNC 2x (66.6%) Neck Crank 1x (33.3%) |
RNC 6x (44%) Triangle 2x (14%) Armbar 2x (14%) Arm Triangle 1x (7%) Kimura 1x (7%) Kneebar 1x (7%) Ankle Lock 1x (7%) |
| Submission Losses by method | N/A | N/A |
| Most Takedowns Allowed in a Fight | 0 | 1 |
| Longest Winning Streak | 4 Fights | 22 Fights |
| Decision Victories in the UFC | 2 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.84 | 3.7 |
| Striking Accuracy | 49% | 36% |
| Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 2.13 | 2.33 |
| Striking Defense | 63% | 67% |
| Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min. | 3.04 | 1.59 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 48% | 55% |
| Takedown Defense Percentage | 100% | 96% |
| Average Submission per 15 Min. | 2.28 | 0.87 |
| Average Submission Completion Rate | 24.32% | 77.94% |
| Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight | 117, on Jan. 15th, 2014, against Mike Easton | 104, on Feb. 4th, 2012, over Scott Jorgenson |
| Total Fight Time | 1 hr, 21 min, 10 sec | 5 hrs, 9 min, 43 sec |
Renan Barao, as I stated in the earlier 5 Questions piece with Allen Strk, is one of the top 3 pound for pound fighters currently active in the UFC. He’s as capable of knocking an opponent out as he is of submitting them, and has the stamina to go hard for 5 rounds, if the need arises. He’s also part of the vaunted Nova Uniao fight team, which also houses the UFC featherweight kingpin, Jose Aldo, amongst others. He’s demolished his way through the old guard, and shown he can deal with the young guns as well. So, does this mean that T.J. Dillashaw doesn’t have a chance? No it doesn’t.
Dillashaw has a chance, but it’s a small one. He’s going to be the last Team Alpha Male fighter cornered by Duane “Bang” Ludwig, and he’s going to need to use every last trick his soon-to-be-former head coach has taught him. Barao’s only really weaknesses are his tendencies to keep his hands low and to get sucked into brawling with winging shots early into a fight. If Dillashaw can use his improved striking – which is 13% more accurate than the champ’s – to land while moving backwards, he may be able to create enough of a collision between his hand and Barao’s chin to shock the world.
With all that said, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Dillashaw has the tools to be a champion in the UFC, I just don’t think now is the time. Barao is on what could very well be an Anderson Silva-like run with the UFC’s bantamweight strap, and I don’t see that ending any time soon. Don’t be surprised if Barao puts another one in the win column for Nova Uniao over Team Alpha Male, and finishes the the former TUF finalist in the later rounds.
