Let’s be honest: Every now and then it’s fun to get down into the nitty-gritty statistics and see if we can’t perform some MMAth. It helps us analyze future fights and make predictions based on previous history. Fans of all sports do it, so why can’t we? It can help us look for potential trends in a fighter as well. So, with thanks to Sherdog and FightMetric.com for the raw data, let’s examine the main event of the upcoming UFC 174: Demetrious Johnson vs. Ali Bagautinov.
Statistics |
Demetrious Johnson |
Ali Bagautinov |
| Age | 27 | 29 |
| Camp | AMC Pankration | Jackson’s MMA |
| Record | 19-2-1 | 13-2 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Reach | 66″ | 65.0″ |
| Win Percentage | 4 (T)KOs (21%) 7 Submissions (37%) 8 Decisions (42%) |
5 (T)KOs (38%) 4 Submissions (31%) 4 Decisions (31%) |
| Loss Percentage | 2 Decisions (100%) | 2 Decisions (100%) |
| Last (T)KO Victory | Dec. 14th, 2013, over Joseph Benavidez | Sep. 4th, 2013, over Marcos Vinicius Borges Pancini |
| Last Submission Victory | July 27th, 2013, over John Moraga | Sep. 17th, over Vadim Zlobich |
| Last Decision Victory | Jan. 26th, 2013, over John Dodson | Feb. 1st, 2014, over John Lineker |
| Last (T)KO Loss | N/A | N/A |
| Last Submission Loss | N/A | N/A |
| Last Decision Loss | Oct. 1st, 2011, to Dominick Cruz | May 26th, 2011, to Evgeniy Lazukov |
| Submission Victories by Method | RNC 3x (49%) Armbar 2x (29%) Guillotine 1x (14%) Keylock 1x (14%) |
Armbar 2x (50%) RNC 1x (25%) Guillotine 1x (25%) |
| Submission Losses by method | N/A | N/A |
| Most Takedowns Allowed in a Fight | 10 | 2 |
| Fewest Significant Strikes in a Victory | 7 | 38 |
| Decision Victories in the UFC | 6 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.32 | 2.99 |
| Striking Accuracy | 51% | 41% |
| Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 1.9 | 2.35 |
| Striking Defense | 65% | 60% |
| Average Takedown Attempts per 15 Min. | 3.69 | 3.45 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 55% | 47% |
| Takedown Defense Percentage | 61% | 50% |
| Average Submission per 15 Min. | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Average Submission Completion Rate | 99%* | 75.73% |
| Most Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight | 127, on Jan. 26th, 2013, against John Dodson | 49, on Feb. 1st, 2014, against John Lineker |
| Total Fight Time | 4 hrs, 37 min, 48 sec | 1 hr, 53 min, 11 sec |
The flyweights will finally be headlining a pay per view of their own, and I have a feeling both Demetrious Johnson and Ali Bagautinov will be looking to impress. Johnson has proven that his speed is deadly, while Bagautinov has been crafty enough to tailor his game to his opponents. The big question is this: Will “The Puncher King” be able to maintain enough space to counter Johnson’s mini-blitzes and spam takedowns the way Dominick Cruz and Brad Pickett did? That’s hard to say, but I could see him pulling it off. With that said, I predict that Bagautinov will get the close decision win over “Mighty Mouse,” and become the 2nd ever UFC Flyweight Champion.
* The bulk of Johnson’s submission victories came before his WEC/UFC tenure. As such, FightMetric does not have fully reliable statistics in this regard.
