UFC 183 Silva vs. Diaz : Pre-Fight Analysis

 

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Looking back on last year, the UFC disappointed many people with not only horrendous cards, but very questionable decisions outside the octagon. Judges and referees were antagonized heavily for their controversial calls and rightfully so. Several fights were scrapped at the last minute and the absence of Vitor Belfort continues with the injury to Chris Weidman.

To help fans forget a brutal 2014, the UFC has kicked 2015 off in style with several great cards, and UFC 183 will conclude a spectacular month of fights. Headlining the main card is the highly-anticipated return of Nick Diaz and Anderson Silva. The co-main event will showcase Tyron Woodley and Kelvin Gastelum, while Joe Lauzon, Al Iaquinta, Tim Boetsch, Thales Leites, Jordan Mein and Thiago Alves will also be featured on the main card.

Going down the list of bouts, this will be hard card to top regardless of how the fights play out. As long as the UFC keeps pumping out events like these, fans should have no problem putting 2014 behind them.

Main Card

#1 Anderson “The Spider” Silva (33-6-0) vs. Nick Diaz (27-9-1)

Personally, there is not better main event than Silva versus Diaz. On an unbiased level, the UFC benefits greatly from these cross-weight class bouts that feature such popular fighters. If it goes well, this should open the door for several veterans to jump at the chance of switching weight classes, especially for those who are out of title contention. In this case, Diaz has moved up to 185 pounds to fight one of the most celebrated legends of the sport, after fighting just twice in the last two years against Carlos Condit and Georges St. Pierre.

Silva is coming rehabilitation after suffering that gruesome leg injury in his second fight with Weidman. He released some videos of his training and he looks ready to go. While Diaz’s future is up in the air, it is assumed that Silva wants his title back. He is a knockout specialist and possesses a deadly ground game. Diaz uses the same style of fighting but lacks the power behind his punches. He constantly pushes the pace and gains confidence with every combination, but Silva is a counter-punching god, and could turn the tide on Diaz at any moment. If the fight stays standing, that should be the biggest difference between both fighters and Diaz could be in for a short night, regardless of his strong chin and conditioning.

If they go to the ground, it would be a great treat to watch these two grapple. They are both very confident in their BJJ skills and a submission victory for either man would be both unexpected and applauded. In terms of lasting five rounds, Silva and Diaz should have no problems. They are both elite level athletes and have gone the distance many times in the past. With that said, fans should consider themselves even luckier if this fight hits the 20-minute mark. I know I will.

#3 Tyron “The Chosen One” Woodley (14-3-0) vs. #7 Kelvin Gastelum (11-0-0)

This had all the makings of a spectacular fight but Gastelum missed weight, again. Woodley is a Strikeforce veteran and is 4-2 in the UFC. His only losses have come against Rory MacDonald and Jake Shields in his debut, both of which were decisions. Gastelum has dominated all opponents but has a history of not making weight and refusing diet restrictions. If he wants to play with the big boys, he will have to become a lot more serious with his weight goals and diet plan.

Woodley is a good wrestler and will want to keep the fight standing. If he can defend Gastelum’s takedowns, he should have the advantage for most of the fight. For both fighters, the biggest question will be cardio. Woodley and Gastelum are big welterweights and could gas in the final round depending on the intensity of the fight. If that happens, it really comes down to a puncher’s chance, and the edge has to go to Woodley.

If Woodley comes away with the win, one has to wonder where he stands in the welterweight title picture. Robbie Lawler just pulled off a very questionable win over Johny Hendricks and MacDonald should have been next in line. With MacDonald scheduled to fight Hector Lombard, it seems the UFC wants to reward the winner of this fight with the next opportunity. If he can beat the undefeated Gastelum, it would be very difficult to argue against Woodley’s chances at UFC gold.

Joe Lauzon (24-10-0) vs. Al “Raging” Iaquinta (10-3-1)

After losing to Michael Johnson, Lauzon has really turned things around. He is 2-0 since the loss and has defeated Mac Danzig and Michael Chiesa in the process.   Iaquinta is having similar success as well, beating Ross Pearson and Rodrigo Damm after losing to Mitch Clarke. While Lauzon always likes to get the fight to the ground, Iaquinta has shown impressive striking skills, beating both Pearson and Damm via TKO.

Since both fighters are not ranked going into this fight, there is a good chance they could claim a spot with an impressive performance. If not, their next fight will likely be against a top 15 fighter, which should help them climb the ladder in such a stacked lightweight division. If Lauzon can deal with the striking game of Iaquinta, expect a long and grueling fight with a high chance of blood loss.

#11 Thales Leites (24-4-0) vs. #13 Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch (18-7-0)

For old school UFC fans, this should be a great matchup. Both fighters came up in their mid-20s and have been around the sport ever since. Leites has spent some time outside the UFC but has only lost once outside the octagon. He has always been praised for his BJJ game and Boetsch will have his hands full if this fight his the mat.  When you consider the losses of both fighters, they have only lost to top level competition and are still high-end middleweights regardless of the outcome.

The most interesting factor going into this bout is the base skills of both fighters. Leites is a great ground specialist but Boetsch has a good wrestling background to keep the fight standing. Boetsch is definitely the better striker, but Leites has never been knocked out. With that said, this should be a very entertaining fight for the hardcore fans, with one UFC veteran taking the next step in his MMA career.

#13 Jordan “Young Gun” Mein (29-9-0) vs. Thiago “Pitbull” Alves (25-9-0)

On the Canadian circuit, Mein is a well-known fighter and comes into the UFC with tremendous hype. He fought primarily in Western Canada and lost to Rory Macdonald in his very first professional fight. Alves is at the other end of his career, suffering through several injury problems over the last few years. He’s fought just twice since 2011 and could have his hands full with such a young and hungry fighter.

At just 25, Mein has over 30 career fights and has got 3-1 in the UFC, losing only to Matt Brown via elbows. Both fighters love to strike and Alves has some terrific knockouts in the UFC. He has a puncher’s chance against anyone and Mein needs to avoid any power shots early in the fight. This has the makings of an absolute classic, but Alves will have to keep the pace for three rounds if he fails to land the big punches. Needless to say, easier said than done.

FOX SPORTS 1 Preliminaries

#2 Miesha “Cupcake” Tate (15-5-0) vs. #3 Sara McMann (8-1-0)

Even though Ronda Rousey steals the spotlight in the women’s bantamweight division, Tate and McMann are very talented fighters despite their losses to the champ. McMann has only lost the one time while Tate has been defeated by Cat Zingano, Sarah Kaufman and twice by Rousey since 2008. Tate supports a solid resume and her background should help her against the older and inexperienced McMann.

McMann climbed the ranks pimarily through ProElite in Hawaii. After an impressive win against Shayna Baszler at Invicta FC 2, McMann made her debut at UFC 159 in just her seventh professional fight. While one could argue the lack of competition for Rousey helped, McMann got a title shot immediately following her first win over Sheila Gaff, but lost in the first round due to a solid knee to the body. Depending on how the Cat Zingano and Rousey fight plays out, one of these ladies could get another chance at fighting the most dominant female fighter in the world. Good luck.

Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (23-10-0, 1NC) vs. Derek Brunson (12-3-0)

Another great battle of two veterans, Herman and Brunson have only lost to really skilled fighters and will look to continue their winning ways tonight. Herman is another Ultimate Fighter alumni who has never really cracked the top tier of the middleweight division. Both fighters had stints with Strikeforce, have lost to similar talent, but have winning records in the UFC ever since their return.

While Herman is 10-6 all-time in the UFC, Brunson supports a 4-1 record and has only lost to Yoel Romero. Even though Herman has the edge in UFC experience, Brunson is still a high-end fighter and could pose some serious problems for “Short Fuse” in the striking department. In the past, when Herman feels overwhelmed on his feet, he usually goes for the takedown to utilize his ground game. If the fight does hit the mat, it is anyone’s game, but the BJJ edge goes to Herman.

#3 Ian “Uncle Creepy” McCall (13-4-1) vs. #6 John “Hands of Stone” Lineker (24-7-0)

Another questionable fight so early in the night, McCall and Lineker are going to throw some leather to decide the number contender in the UFC flyweight division. Sadly, Lineker missed weight which could jeopardize his chances even if he wins. Based on the popularity of the division and the champion Demetrious Johnson, it comes as no surprise that the title eliminator fight did not make the main card. Both fighters love to strike and have never been knocked out. McCall really has nothing to lose, as he sits atop the flyweight division and will get another shot at Johnson with the title up for grabs this time around.

Lineker lost is first bout with title implications against Ali Bagautinov, but will look to get back in the mix with a win against McCall. At just 24 years old, Lineker is a UFC veteran, but McCall is an elite level fighter who will stop at nothing to get another shot at the champion. With number one contender implications riding on this bout, expect both fighters to come out swinging to set up the next title fight in the flyweight division.

Rafael “Sapo” Natal (18-6-1) vs. Tom “Kong” Watson (17-7-0)

Two well experienced veterans of the UFC, Natal leads the way with over 10 UFC fights while Watson is 2-3 in the octagon. Both fighters are going into this fight with a win and are trying to build a solid win streak to get back into contention. They come out of great camps and should demonstrate good versatility throughout their fight. Though Natal should have the edge,  Watson has never been knocked out and will always have a striker’s chance. Not to mention, his UFC experience should help him get through the fight against an opponent on the proving ground.

UFC Fight Pass Preliminaries

Diego “DB” Brandao (22-10-0) vs. Jimy “The Kid” Hettes (11-2-0)

Brandao and Hettes finish off the Fight Pass prelims in a very surprising bout. Both fighters have a legitimate fan base and have demonstrated immense skill in the past. In other words, this seems more suitable for a later time slot but both fighters have a lot to prove. Brandao has lost two straight via first round TKO/KO and Hettes lost his most recent bout to Dennis Bermudez via punches and knees in the third round. For grappling fans, this could turn into a ground war, but expect Brandao to do everything he can to keep the fight standing. If Hettes has worked on his striking, this could turn into a very interesting fight. With that said, both fighters have tremendous talent and it will take just one mistake for the other man to capitalize.

Richardson “Rick Monstro” Moreira (7-3-0) vs. Ildemar “Marajo” Alcantara (20-7-0)

In a classic case of newcomer versus veteran, Moreira lost his UFC debut to Marcos Rogerio de Lima and will look to get his first win against the very experienced Alcantara. “Marajo” is 3-2 in the UFC and lost his last fight to Kenny Robertson. Without much to go on, the edge has to be given to Alcantara in both the striking and grappling department. He has finished 16 of his 20 wins and has never been submitted. Moreira has never gone the distance but will need to grind out a victory against such a well-versed opponent. If he can, expect him to get a nice upgrade in competition next time around.

Thiago “Marreta” Santos (9-3-0) vs. Andy “Lionheart” Enz (8-2-0)

Santos is coming off a loss to Uriah Hall and is 1-2 in the UFC. His only win was against Ronny Markes, defeating him via kick to the body and punches in under a minute. Enz has not had much success either, losing his first two fights in the UFC since coming over from Alaska. Enz has only lost via decision and has a really strong ground game. Though Santos has demonstrated some ground skills, he prefers to keep the fight standing and go for the knockout. Both fighters’ game plans should not change, and this could be a do-or-die fight for both men.

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