The UFC 271 main event will feature the two best middleweights in the world when undisputed champion Israel Adesanya faces Robert Whittaker for the long-anticipated rematch. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Saturday, Feb. 12th, 2022 10 p.m. EST (ESPN+ PPV)
- Where: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
- Line: Israel Adesanya (-280) and Robert Whittaker (+255); Over 4.5 rounds (-135) and under 4.5 rounds (+105); odds from Draftkings Sportsbook.
Robert Whittaker
Since his knockout loss to Adesanya in his home country of Australia, the “Reaper” Robert Whittaker took some time off and has since dominated every opponent and made it no secret that his priority has been an opportunity to fight Adesanya again.
Whittaker at 31 years of age is a year younger than Adesanya, averaging 4.68 significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) with a 41 percent striking accuracy, 3.34 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 61 percent striking defense, 0.64 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 34 percent takedown accuracy, 83 percent takedown defense and 0.0 submissions per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats.
Aside from the loss to Adesanya, Whittaker has beaten Kelvin Gastelum (UD, 2021), Jared Cannonier (UD, 2020) and Yoel Romero twice (SD, 2018 and UD, 2017) in his last five contests.
Israel Adesanya
Aside from his unsuccessful attempt to challenge for the UFC light heavyweight crown, Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya has not faced a challenge or adversity in defending his middleweight title since taking it from Whittaker in 2019.
Adesanya has a four inch height and seven inch reach advantage on Whittaker and averages 3.94 significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) with a 50 percent striking accuracy, 2.59 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) with 62 percent striking defense, 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 0 percent takedown accuracy, 80 percent takedown defense and 0.2 submissions per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats.
Adesanya has won four of his last five matches, including victories over Marvin Vettori (UD, 2021), Paulo Costa (TKO Rd2, 2020), Yoel Romero (UD, 2020), Robert Whittaker (TKO Rd2, 2019) and his only loss in the UFC to Jan Blachowicz (UD, 2020) for the light heavyweight title.
Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 Narratives
Narratives heading into this rematch include the perception that Adesanya’s striking is at another level than Whittaker’s, and even if Whittaker is less emotional and more cautious in their second fight, most handicappers can only foresee the champion getting his arm raised this Saturday evening.
Whittaker backers feel that the Reaper will be much better prepared for the rematch and see the betting line as disrespectful toward Whittaker and all the value residing with the underdog.
Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 Prediction
We agree that Adesanya’s length and technical striking are a difficult match up for Whittaker and that Whittaker will be much more calculated and prepared for their second battle.
Since joining the UFC, Adesanya’s fights have gone to decision seven times and finished inside the distance four times. Whittaker has had three straight decisions since his loss to Adesanya and has gone to the scorecards in eleven contests with seven finishing inside the distance.
While we lean toward Adesanya winning the rematch, we expect a close, technical contest with both fighters being careful to not overextend or leave themselves open, with Whittaker possibly attempting more takedowns or grappling, all of which are more conducive to the fight going the distance.
Pick: Over 4.5 rounds (-135)
