UFC 320 goes down this weekend from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The card is headlined by a huge rematch between current light heavyweight champion, Magomed Ankalev and the former two-weight world champion, Alex Pereira. The two men clashed previously with Ankalev getting a straightforward decision, winning 49–46, 48–47 and 48–47.
Many were surprised by how lacklustre a performance Poatan put in, bringing into question how committed he was to the fight. The rematch was inevitable, but many people are stuck on who to pick at UFC 320. Ankalev is the favourite with the bookies, but don’t put it past Pereira to pull off the upset.
We use AI to predict how the fight will go and who will win.
AI Predicts the UFC 320 Main Event
Adjustments to be Made at UFC 320
According to AI, there are several adjustments to be made at UFC 320 for the challenger, Alex Pereira.
Firstly, Pereira must be more aggressive in the fight. For context, he only landed 97 total strikes across all five rounds. Against Khalil Rountree Jr in the fight before, he landed 129 strikes in under four full rounds. He landed more against Jan Blachowicz in a three-round outing in his light heavyweight debut.
He also needs to adjust and prevent himself from being pinned against the fence. In the first bout, Ankalev was able to get control of Pereira for 5:42, despite not landing a single takedown. It wasn’t entertaining, but it worked. It’s up to Pereira to prevent this from happening again.
Strike with more accuracy. At UFC 313, Pereira landed just 11 strikes to the head across 25 minutes. 63% of his strikes landed were to the legs of Ankalev, however, they had little effect. Pereira must be more accurate with his strikes to the head, mix it to the body to keep the champion guessing and look to be more damaging with his leg kicks.
How Will the Fight Play Out?
So here comes AI’s prediction for the fight.
Rounds 1-2
Pereira to come out sharper than last time, look to land the leg kick and stay mobile throughout. There’s no doubt that this would be a good tactic, but as we previously mentioned, he needs to be vicious with the leg kick itself.
He tests Ankalaev’s defence, trying to pick openings with strikes to the body with his lead left, hoping to open up a chance to land his famous left hook. He does the same with the headkick by landing low kicks and hoping that an opportunity presents itself.
AI predicts that Ankalev is patient, not wasting energy and relentlessly pressing forward, throwing combinations and hurting Perira after 10 minutes.
Rounds 3-4
This is where the grappling comes into play with Ankalev looking to apply pressure and get into clinch positions. He’ll try and shoot the takedowns and this time around, could even land a number of takedowns, something he wasn’t able to do in their first fight.
Pereira does begin to hamper the movement of the champion with leg kicks but the pressure of Ankalaev begins to fatigue Pereira both physically and mentally. Pereira is forced to throw single shots. AI suggests that Pereira ‘may even knock Ankalaev down’ but with the Russian getting reckless and opening up. A finish doesn’t come, however.
Round 5
Ankalaev’s conditioning comes into play during the final round of UFC 320. The constant pressure and grappling give him a physical edge in the final round. Anakalev makes the final round decisive by controlling the space, forcing the clinch and landing a takedown late on, doing little damage.
Decision
AI is like many fans, pundits and experts on this one, split.
It suggests that a lean towards Ankalaev to win the rematch is more likely, via decision. It states that he’ll do so by doing the hard work, mixing the martial arts and winning it due to his pressure.
However, it also suggests an eventuality here Pereira pulls off a knockout. He does this if he’s able to stay disciplined, doesn’t fear the takedown and can land that lead left hook of his. If he is to do this, it’ll come earlier in the fight.
My pick for UFC 320: Ankalaev via unanimous decision. The pressure of the champion and the fear of the grappling from Pereira will lead to a lacklustre fight overall and a similar outcome of their UFC 313 battle. AND STILL.
