UFC 321 goes down this weekend and the UFC 321 Co-Main Event sees the vacant strawweight title on the line as Mackenzie Dern takes on Virna Jandiroba across five rounds. Interestingly, the two women met in 2020 with Dern coming away the victor via unanimous decision.
Since then, each woman has been on a different path, but in Abu Dhabi, the two will once again meet, this time with far more on the line.
We used Ai to predict the UFC 321 Co-Main Event to give us an idea as to how the fight may play out.
Ai Predicts UFC 321 Co-Main Event
Things to Consider
Mackenzie Dern is more used to the main event, five round distance. She’s been scheduled for the five round distance four times in her UFC career, going the full 25 minutes three times. It’s also worth noting that she’s focused on adding more muscle, improving her durability and aiming to be more athletic in the rematch.
Jandiroba has been scheduled for five rounds three times, only going 25 minutes once, in 2018. At 37, she’s kept a high level of activity, competing twice last year and once in 2025. Don’t expect the championship distance to be an issue.
Round 1
The UFC 321 co-main event will see Jandiroba likely start slower, feeling out the range and looking to avoid early scrambles. The early rounds will be where Dern is most dangerous. Both women will be dry and her submission game will be most efficient here. Jandiroba will look to crash Dern’s entries, clinching when necessary to avoid the ground game.
Dern will attempt to force grappling transitions, using her improved stand up game to draw feints and test the reactions of her Brazilian opponent.
Expect a cautious start from both women.
Round 2
If Dern hasn’t been able to ground Jandiroba in the first, she’ll enter the second round with more urgency. She’ll push for clinch work, look to land the takedowns with singles or doubles, but may have to settle for clinch trips.
Jandiroba may also look to surprise Dern with her own takedowns, looking to dominate in favourable positions but will play it safe.
Jandiroba will begin to catch Dern crashing in for takedowns, but ultimately, the increased strength of Dern will pay dividends in getting the fight to the ground.
Rounds 3-5
Much of the same happens in round three. Damage accumulation and fatigue will begin to become a major factor here and we’ll see if Dern’s emphasis on conditioning pays off.
If she’s got Jandiroba to the ground previously, expect her to do it again in the third.
With that being said, Jandiroba is dangerous on the ground. She’s recorded 14 career submissions, so expect her to be active off her back. Dern will likely look to avoid the ground with her wavering gas tank, so the third will take place on the feet. Jandiroba will scramble back to her feet and will win the round on control and top pressure.
Any mistake by Dern in the latter rounds will be punished by Jandiroba, especially any lazy takedown attempts and any overcommitting of strikes. This is certainly something she has been guilty of in previous fights, especially against Jessica Andrade. You can check out our breakdown of this fight here.
There’s also a strong chance that both women’s grappling skills cancel each other out and the fight plays out on the feet. Neither woman is an established striker and it could become quite messy on the feet. In their previous bout, Jandiroba was drawing large reactions out of Dern with every 1-2 thrown, so expect Dern to be better in this regard, which could prevent the fight from looking too hard to watch.
Prediction
Ai predicts that the UFC 321 co-main event will end with Dern becoming champion and will do so via unanimous decision, emulating what she did five years ago. She manages control effectively enough to make it look as if Jandiroba is getting desperate with her strikes.
The understanding that she has packed on more muscle and is more physically prepared to go five rounds will pay off for Dern. She’ll be able to reduce the disadvantage in the wrestling game that she suffered with in the first fight. She’ll balance risk and get ahead enough to not have to take risks later on in the bout.
Jandiroba is tough, solid on the ground and capable of controlling scrambles. She could punish Dern, but it’s unlikely.
