The UFC 321 main event features an intriguing clash between the champion, Tom Aspinall and the challenger, Ciryl Gane. It marks the first time that the champion, Aspinall, will defend the undisputed belt, having been promoted in June.
Gane offers Aspinall something that he hasn’t seen in his MMA career thus far, a point fighter, who’s light on his feet and can counter at speed. Aspinall’s last two opponents have been Curtis Blaydes, a wrestler and Sergei Pavlovich, a heavy footed boxer. We can’t take too much away from these wins.
The UFC 321 main event is a difficult one to predict, so we’ve asked AI to do it for us!
AI Predicts the UFC 321 Main Event
Early Rounds
Aspinall comes out aggressive, looking to close the distance straight away and push the pace. He lands big strikes early before Gane can settle into the bout. Using his movement, Gane maintains the distance and begins to land jabs and leg kicks. He threatens Aspinall with feints and lands straighter shots, keeping the Brit at bay.
If Aspinall can get inside, tie Gane up in the clinch and threaten takedowns, it’ll disrupt the Frenchman’s rhythm, but it won’t be easy.
AI suggests that Gane needs to avoid firefights, something that got Pavlovich in trouble in New York at UFC 295. If Gane can make the champion miss and circle out, he can catch him on the way out and make him pay for overswinging.
Middle Rounds
Ai predicts that if the UFC 321 main event gets past the early blitz and none of the heavy hitters land clean, the grappling game of Aspinall may become more relevant. If he is able to ground Gane, he could begin to work his stronger BJJ game as well as fatigue Gane. By draining Gane’s gas tank, it’ll take the ‘pop’ off his shots, making him far less dangerous in the latter rounds… if it gets there.
The damage that Gane takes on the floor, the accumulation of being taken down and having fight back to his feet as well as Aspinall’s pace will begin to wear on Gane massively in the middle rounds. Although he has experience of going five rounds, this will be different.
Final Round
If the fight makes it to the final round, both men will be fatigued. Although he would have been on top, Aspinall will have been pushing the pace for 20 minutes by this point.
The question becomes: Can the Brit maintain pressure for the final round or if Gane can prevent Aspinall from working his game, will his economic striking style pay dividends?
Could Gane nick enough rounds by the final round to force Aspinall to need a finish?
Outcome
Ai predicts that the UFC 321 main event will see Tom Aspinall to win, likely by late stoppage in the final round or via a dominant decision if Gane can survive the deep waters.
Aspinall’s aggression, power and wrestling will give him the edge. Gane’s best chance is to keep the fight in his range, keep tapping away at Aspinall and look to land big shots on the exit. He needs to force the champion to overcommit to shots and catch him.
The more well-rounded game of Aspinall should allow us to hear ‘AND STILL’ after the UFC 321 main event.
