The UFC’s big Super Bowl event is finally here. As usual, they stacked up the card very well. We have two very appealing title fights, even though there seems to be a lack of buzz for the featherweight title bout. It’s a shame that Ricardo Lamas doesn’t get enough recognition because he’s a relatively quiet person. This could be Jose Aldo’s last fight at 145, which should make the fight even more intriguing. We also obviously have Renan Barao’s first title defense against Urijah Faber. Best wishes go out to Dominick Cruz, who has replaced Shane Carwin as the most unluckiest fighter in history. Then we got a potential “loser gets cut” bout between Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem.

Five questions for UFC 169

This card was well booked all around, so it should be an exciting event after a lackluster UFC on Fox 10. I’m joined by my colleague Justin Pierrot, who will be previewing the main card with me.

1. Is Jamie Varner fighting for his job? He’s gone 1-2 in his last three fights and hasn’t looked impressive since his upset win over Edson Barboza.

Strk: There are so many talented fighters at 155 pounds, which is why I believe he is fighting for his job. Jamie Varner seems to be a gatekeeper at best at this point. There aren’t any signs that he can beat a top ten lightweight in the near future. With the UFC trying to eliminate gatekeepers that aren’t former champions, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him cut if he were to lose.

Varner needs to make Abel Trujillo chase him around and wear him out. We’ve seen how much of an explosive striker Trujillo is. His power is on a scary level for a lightweight. If Varner can make this ugly and constantly go for takedowns, he should be able to secure his place in the UFC. Trujillo tends to get frustrated when the fight isn’t going his way. Can Varner be the crafty veteran that he is and not allow Trujillo to get comfortable? He’ll need to do so in order to make sure he’s still employed by the UFC in 2014.

Pierrot: Well, that all depends on the whims of Dana White and Joe Silva, but in all honesty, I think he is. The lightweight division is just too stacked to allow a guy to go 1-3. Still, a match-up with Abel Trujillo is certainly a boon to his cause, as Trujillo always brings it and could provide a the kind of fight that – win or lose – could keep Varner under Zuffa employ. Regardless, it’s not an enviable place to be for Jamie Varner, and it’s one that could send him down to World Series of Fighting toot sweet.

2. Who would you give the striking advantage to between John Lineker and Ali Bagautinov?

Strk: I still can’t get over that we are seeing a matchup between the “Puncher” (Bagautinov) and “Hands Of Stone” (Lineker). The headline for that is pretty incredible, especially for a fight in the flyweight division. Some people tend to complain about the flyweights not being able to finish fights. I’ll be shocked if this fight ends up going to decision. Besides John Dodson, nobody hits harder than these two fighters at 125 points.

Even though Bagautinov is the more accurate striker, you have to give the striking advantage to to Lineker. He’s earned 11 knockouts in his career, including three straight knockouts. Who wants to stand-and-trade with someone that dangerous? His uppercuts are devastating, while he knows how to mix it up and not become one-dimensional. Bagautinov is still a threat on his feet and will look to counter Lineker’s heavy barrage of punches. Eventually we will probably see him look for a takedown to slow Lineker down. As a world Sambo gold medalist, he’s more than capable of taking this fight to the ground and attempt to finish the fight from there.

Pierrot:  Ali Bagautinov definitely has the striking advantage over Lineker. Why? He is better at striking in transitions. That’s a tough skill to master, and one that the current crop of Samboists has been using to their advantage in the UFC. Lineker hits hard, no doubt. But really, that’s all he does. He’s too wild, like a miniature version of early Vitor Belfort, and it’s going to get him caught. They don’t call Ali Bagautinov “Puncher King” because he has pillow fists and swings like Leonard Garcia. You can expect to see Bagautinov to counter-strike his way to victory and send Lineker back to Brazil sans job.

3. What do you think is a bigger flaw? Is it Frank Mir’s defense against the clinch or Alistair Overeem’s cardio?

Strk: I’ve always valued cardio over anything when looking at a fighter. We are talking about heavyweights though. These men aren’t built to fight at a high pace for 15 minutes. Also I’m looking at this from a matchup perspective, when it comes to choosing the bigger flaw. Alistair Overeem’s biggest strength is putting his opponent in the clinch against the cage, so he could land his vicious knee strikes. We’ve seen on more than a few occasions how Frank Mir has lost from not being able to get off the cage.

That is why Mir’s clinch defense is the bigger flaw. It could only a minute for Overeem to lock in that clinch and pound Mir until he can’t defend intelligently. You have to compare that to at least three or four minutes before Overeem may potentially slow down. Greg Jackson always has his fighters in tremendous shape before they fight. I’m sure he’s working Mir to the core, so that he’s ready to wear Overeem down before finishing him off. He needs to avoid the clinch at all costs; otherwise it will be a short night for Mir and a likely brutal ending to his UFC career.

Pierrot:  Overeem’s lack of cardio will always be a bigger flaw in my mind. It’s one thing to get muscled up against the cage in the clinch. It happens, but it can be avoided. Bad cardio is just shows a incomplete focus in your training regimen. Like too much time spent developing beach muscles instead of hitting the treadmill or doing consecutive rounds of light sparring. Overeem’s clinch is dangerous, yes, but hopefully Mir remembers that there are ways out of it, and can drag the fight into the later rounds.

4. Ricardo Lamas is already being looked at Jose Aldo’s next victim. Do you give him a chance in the title fight?

Strk: He’s the most dangerous fighter that Jose Aldo has faced in quite some time. Even when he fought Frankie Edgar, I felt that it was a long shot that Edgar could pull off the upset. You have to start off fast against Aldo followed by wearing him down in the latter rounds. Ricardo Lamas has an aggressive style, where he’s consistently moving and has proven to be heavy handed. That is the right combination you need when facing someone as spectacular as Aldo.

Some may say that Chad Mendes has the same style, but he didn’t become this knockout machine until after he lost to Aldo. If Lamas can be aggressive early and continue to close the distance without being reckless, he has a chance to pull off the upset. When I spoke to Lamas in November, he made it clear that he’s not going to start off timid. As great as Aldo is, you have to take chances against him otherwise you will be picked apart by his devastating leg kicks. I’d give him a puncher’s chance in this one, especially if he can take Aldo to the championship rounds. We’ve seen him slow down in fights that went to distance, such as his fights against Edgar and Mark Hominick.

Pierrot: With all apologies to Mr. Lamas, I think he’s got a puncher’s chance at best. He’s not the most accurate or technical striker, and his takedown completion rate (38%) isn’t that great either. If he’s going to pull this off, he’d better have watched Chris Weidman’s second victory over Anderson Silva. If “The Bully” can check Jose Aldo’s leg kicks early and often – and put his knee into it – then he’s got a good chance. If not, he’s just another victim left behind on Aldo’s “Path of Rage”. 

5. One of the most glaring stats in the UFC is that Renan Barao has a 95 percent takedown defense? Can Urijah Faber take him down or will he be forced to rely on his standup for most of the fight?

Strk: I’ve watched some of Barao’s past fights just to see what the secret is behind his tremendous takedown defense. It mainly comes down to how good his striking is, along with how well he utilizes his range. Ironically, you can make a case that Junior Dos Santos has the same qualities for having such great takedown defense. While talking to Dominick Cruz last November, he mentioned how Barao has great hips as well. That simply comes from how hard he trains, so the takedown defense percentage isn’t a padded number.

Faber’s standup has made some major strides, since Duane Ludwig became coach of Team Alpha Male. If you can mix up your strikes effectively to throw your opponent off, that should lead to an opening for a takedown on anyone. Since his standup has improved, I do see Faber taking him down at some point. He’s proven he can take down even the biggest bantamweights such as Iuri Alcantara. I’m sure at some point Faber will successfully complete a takedown, yet what does he do if he puts Barao on his back? Can he keep Barao down for a significant period of time? That seems highly unlikely; therefore we’ll see this fight mostly take place on the feet.

Pierrot: For as good a wrestler as Urijah Faber is acclaimed to be, it hasn’t translated to MMA as well you would have thought, at least in terms of takedowns. Where Faber succeeds best is actually in scrambles. Remember that awesome crucifix back-take that he pulled on Ivan Menjivar just before choking him out? That’s where “ he California Kid” is at his best. His stand-up – Now 100% more Bang-tastic, just like the rest of Team Alpha Male – is getting better, but he needs to use it to set up those scrambles if he hopes to get close to Barao. He also needs to do it early, too, when the Nova Uniao product is still warming up. Otherwise, expect a mere redux of the first bout.

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